Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[Daniel*]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Dont think so mate-

Will be similar to the 00z run..

Christmas on ECM showers turning increasingly wintry later in the day a white Christmas for some. An interesting NH profile.....

[Methuselah]

41 minutes ago, carsey said:

I wonder if the models just use a revised version of the previous years outputs.  

I thought they were all taken from 1962-63!

[bluearmy]

Can ŵe drop the fixation with Xmas day?? 

Ecm won't drop the polar ridge and the zero isotherm pretty well making it to the pole day 7

no PVLT on this op run! Let's see how the Canadian vortex receives its re inforcements.  Rather a strange run in the n Pacific by day 8. 

Would be nice to see the eps take on the theme of the Canadian lobe becoming  isolated 

Edited December 18, 2017 by bluearmy

[January Snowstorm]

12 minutes ago, West is Best said:

I make mistakes like the rest of us, but I can't see the entire cause for gloom at the moment. The GFS continues its slow and steady progress to a pattern shift around 25/12. The signs of that were showing in the ensembles a few days ago and have been picked up by the operationals. Today's 12z takes this on still further, with the PV wandering aro

I would very much agree wib 

Perhaps it comes with decades of experience but I too see a change to something much more interesting shortly after Christmas day itself

[northwestsnow]

pacific ridge or not im not entirely sure what good its doing for us- gfs/ec very similar at 192-

euro heights and an angry atlantic incoming..

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Can ŵe drop the fixation with Xmas day?? 

Ecm won't drop the polar ridge and the zero isotherm pretty well making it to the pole day 7

Totally agree with this , white Xmas off the cards unless you're in the usual locations prone on an average winters, wet day (high ground Midlands North). What we need to be looking for are really cold possibilities, the ones that get this forum buzzing. Agree, not much of that at the minute so people just hoping for miracles, however miracles rarely happen for us coldies!! I think all we can hope for at Xmas are really good charts appearing beyond the New Year. 

 

[Alexis]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The long term prognosis look far better.

To many focus on a white xmas.

When you have more chance of having white while your kids go easter egg hunting...

Than opening xmas prezzies!!!

Into jan...begining to look very interesting. ?

Complete myth. There is slightly more chance of falling (not lying) snow in March than December as a whole, but that’s doesn’t mean “the chances are higher of snow falling on Easter Sunday than 25th December”.

[Summer Sun]

Turning more unsettled after Christmas but it shouldn't be too cold as we draw up a southwesterly flow

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

pacific ridge or not im not entirely sure what good its doing for us- gfs/ec very similar at 192-

euro heights and an angry atlantic incoming..

Mate' if we can evolve, some better height behind that drop off seg-sitting over scotland.....

2/3 days later its a cut off vortex...

And we'd soon be in a siberian flow!!!!!

Edited December 18, 2017 by tight isobar

[Frosty.]

I wouldn't worry about what any run shows for early next week yet as the next run will be different etc but at least it looks like we will see some proper weather next week with at least a chance of some colder air in the mix at times to enable something wintry to fall from the sky, for some of us, especially further north with elevation..Looks disturbed next week with potential for stormy conditions at times.

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Complete myth. There is slightly more chance of falling (not lying) snow in March than December as a whole, but that’s doesn’t mean “the chances are higher of snow falling on Easter Sunday than 25th December”.

I' ll post some stats my freind when i have time...

I assure you the easter part is the more realistic!....

[ArHu3]

9 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Complete myth. There is slightly more chance of falling (not lying) snow in March than December as a whole, but that’s doesn’t mean “the chances are higher of snow falling on Easter Sunday than 25th December”.

I have never, consciously experienced a white Christmas in my 43 years ('81 could have been but I don't remember, Christmas isn't that big of a deal in the Netherlands) but I have experienced a few white Easters.

Edited December 18, 2017 by ArHu3

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

pacific ridge or not im not entirely sure what good its doing for us- gfs/ec very similar at 192-

euro heights and an angry atlantic incoming..

If it evolves like the ecm 12z then it clearly will do the coldies good

you aren’t going to avoid the Pacific ridge so without an amplification into the pole (hopefully nearer Greenland than Siberia) then you’re looking at a strong jet into the uk locale 

 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If it evolves like the ecm 12z then it clearly will do the coldies good

you aren’t going to avoid the Pacific ridge so without an amplification into the pole (hopefully nearer Greenland than Siberia) then you’re looking at a strong jet into the uk locale 

 

Never going to disagree with you blue

But i'm struggling to see what good this pacific ridge did for the UK on EC tonight- just looks wet and windy for most-

Still can't see any sign of blocking anywhere near enough to benefit us..

 

[Paul]

For people just wanting to talk about Christmas:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/83931-white-christmas-2017/

 

[knocker]

A quick run through this evening’s ecm.

Thursday 12z sees HP dominating but there is a shallow low to the west of Ireland  with an associated weak front straddling the country bringing some sporadic light rain.

This clears the south coast by 12 Friday whilst the jet swings around it via Iceland before dropping south into eastern Europe.

But 24 hours later the energy being emitted from the eastern seaboard is suppressing the high cell and with the jet now just north of Scotland and a frontal wave is skimming the same bringing quite strong winds and some rain to the north

This shallow low tracks quickly east and over the next 24 hours the high continues to hang on in there to the south so that by 12 Sunday the next front is only impacting Scotland as it trails away to the west of Ireland leaving the rest of the UK in a brisk WSW wind with temps a little above average.

But the energy is piling up to the west and by midday on Xmas day the aforementioned front is now orientated down the west coast of the UK as a wave develops on it and has tracked to be just north of Scotland at the same time. The front quickly traverse the country bringing some rain to all areas and veering the strong winds westerly.

This is the cue for the Atlantic to take centre stage so the detail best left.

The overall picture for the end of the run is not dissilar to this morning with the Alaska ridge temporarily displacing the vortex with a strong jet leaving the eastern seaboard with low pressure dominating the eastern Atlantic portending a few unsettled days.

Keep the faith peeps

 

 

Edited December 18, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Don't know why my post was removed but its a fact that the Euro heights are a problem for the UK in terms of getting a good dig of colder air down across the uk next week as things stand..some on here need to lighten up and grow a sense of humour!!

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended looking wet and windy pretty much nationwide this evening

[northwestsnow]

EC mean has the PV setting up exactly where we do not want it by day 10

[feb1991blizzard]

Thee ECM 240 mean isn't great but ive seen worse, you would think there would be at least a cluster by D15 that offer a enough of a dig to have us at least a couple of days of being on the cold side of the Jet with precipitation available. whether many will go on to develop scandi high's is another matter though.

Edited December 18, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Chesil View]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean has the PV setting up exactly where we do not want it by day 10

Pretty much in line with the progged transitional phase before the next cold spell then NWS

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thee ECM 240 mean isn't great but ive seen worse, you would think there would be at least a cluster by D15 that offer a enough of a dig to have us at least a couple of days of being on the cold side of the Jet with precipitation available. whether many will go on to develop scandi high's is another matter though.

I wonder what the thought process is with Exeters outlook- the bbc monthly talks of colder drier weather into the new year too- my only consideration is that they are expecting a block to develop to our NE settling things down- i cant see any other logical explanation ?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Pretty much in line with the progged transitional phase before the next cold spell then NWS

Yes i just replied to Feb- the pros are suggesting things settling into a drier colder pattern into the newyear- i wonder about a scandy high - not really visible at the moment - perhaps the ext eps will reveal more

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I wonder what the thought process is with Exeters outlook- the bbc monthly talks of colder drier weather into the new year too- my only consideration is that they are expecting a block to develop to our NE settling things down- i cant see any other logical explanation ?

I think they just losing confidence in it slowly - bit by bit.

[phil nw.]

After a rather quiet,sometimes foggy, and often rather mild few days under the azores ridge things look like changing over the weekend as the Atlantic pattern revs up and wind and rain comes into the forecasts.

Unfortunately the Pacific ridge is part of a typical Nina pattern along with sub tropical high pressure extending ne across the Atlantic from Bermuda/SE states towards NW Europe.This setup as we can see currently, often pushes a large chunk of Canadian troughing towards the Atlantic and strengthen the jet towards us as bitter cold uppers come flooding off the e.seaboard.

With time we are seeing the jet being modeled further south as we head into next week so the change to a more unsettled period looks inevitable as a number of frontal systems whip across us from low pressure close by to the north and west.A very mobile pattern with any snowfall unlikely away from higher up in the north as bouts of Polar air dig in behind the cold fronts.

Seasonal in a way,ie what we often get in late December in the uk, but i guess not what many of us hope for around this time.