Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[northwestsnow]

TEITS- if you reading, i think i love you

MUCH better GFS/EC tonight-

looks at that anticyclone building over siberia at day 10 on EC-

Impressive!!

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They're already out - upwards of 10 inches for our neck of the woods - absolute claptrap.

In fact 19 inches lying by the end of the run - ive never heard of any model output so pathetic in my life.

If you had that as a level base of snow around here, there would be drifts so high that houses would actually be completely submerged in snow.

Hahaha- yes i dont disagree Feb

But even if we got 1 inch i'd be happy

12Zs are a big upgrade for many people- on the EC ..

UKMO is pants in comparison.

and there is the siberian high at day 10

1055mb!!

BIG anticyclone !

Edited December 22, 2017 by northwestsnow

[blizzard81]

A very easy on the eye ecm very happy with the 12z runs tonight. Let this trend continue tomorrow. 

[nick sussex]

Not bad from the ECM with the jet tracking south and chances for some snow more especially on higher ground.

The obituaries written a few days back look a bit premature and although we’re not seeing any deep cold it looks okay with temps on the cool side and a chance of the odd surprise.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Hahaha- yes i dont disagree Feb

But even if we got 1 inch i'd be happy

12Zs are a big upgrade for many people- on the EC ..

UKMO is pants in comparison.

Yes an upgrade but what infuriates me about charts like that is if it was a really likely setup to deliver a 6 incher or 8 incher and we got a good dumping and the model was just exaggerating amounts then I could take it on the chin but to get charts like that and end up with about 2 inches of slush or even more likely zilch, just fuels the hatred in me even more.

[northwestsnow]

Well i would love to discuss the 12Z EC tonight but unfortunately the wife is getting a bit miffed with the amount of time i spend looking at the models.

Hope the GFS/EC are going to arouse some interest!!

[Ali1977]

The latest ECMF weeklies showing heights around Southern Greenland and poss accross to Iceland week 2, not sure how good accurate these can be!!

Edited December 22, 2017 by Ali1977

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes an upgrade but what infuriates me about charts like that is if it was a really likely setup to deliver a 6 incher or 8 incher and we got a good dumping and the model was just exaggerating amounts then I could take it on the chin but to get charts like that and end up with about 2 inches of slush or even more likely zilch, just fuels the hatred in me even more.

Very deep Feb and I'm not talking about the snow lol. Sit back and have a festive beer or three

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i would love to discuss the 12Z EC tonight but unfortunately the wife is getting a bit miffed with the amount of time i spend looking at the models.

Hope the GFS/EC are going to arouse some interest!!

At least you are getting aroused by weather models and not other types. Otherwise your wife would castrate you lol

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i would love to discuss the 12Z EC tonight but unfortunately the wife is getting a bit miffed with the amount of time i spend looking at the models.

Hope the GFS/EC are going to arouse some interest!!

My wife says the exact same thing!!i pay more attention to the models than her at the moment?!!anyway back to the models and the ecm has pushed everything further south again!!12zs are an upgrade bar the ukmo 144 hour chart!!

[Duane S.]

So, continued signs today of a further move away from any sort of prolonged blowtorch spell of mild on the charts.

MLB does look likely to occur in and around our latitude going into Jan. But where? I still think this is one to watch as (even if not perhaps the most likely outcome), it appears to be the most viable way of bringing a cold spell in for January. And that shouldn't of course detract from the cold hitting our shores (moreso for the north obviously) for the festive period.

Cherry picked ? Yes. But only to get across my point of the past few days that it is possible from this setup.

 It's all about the energy being sent SE into southern Europe. Here GEFS P3 slingshots 3 lots down (most show only 1 or 2), this is subsequently enough to sustain low enough heights that allow the building high to retrogress over the top and into Scandinavian setting up a nice Easterly for us.

Edited December 22, 2017 by s4lancia

[stodge]

Evening all

The big development on the 12Z suite is the failure of the trough to dig south and promote heights over Europe. The positively aligned trough brings back the milder SW'ly winds but with the trough not moving and the jet keeping to the south it's plenty of cold rain for me and the possibility of snow (probabllity for most high ground and certainty for the Scottish mountains) for those on lower ground further north.

I have to say looking at the ECM 12Z T+240 chart I'm not seeing a raging Atlantic either.

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

A very easy on the eye ecm very happy with the 12z runs tonight. Let this trend continue tomorrow. 

Dependant on where you’re from certainly not nationwide. For us southerners largely wet rather than white pony and trap, however there's opportunities, I can definitely see some significant depths in the north 250 - 300 meters + ASL looks like fun. The ECM snow depth charts are a load of crap but has nearly 20” for the Peak District. I think halve that.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Dependant on where you’re from certainly not nationwide. For us southerners largely wet rather than white pony and trap, however there's opportunities, I can definitely see some significant depths in the north 250 - 300 meters + ASL looks like fun. The ECM snow depth charts are a load of crap but has nearly 20” for the Peak District. I think halve that.

Well, we all learnt from slidergate a few weeks ago, expect the unexpected in these scenarios

[Snowjokes92]

Has anyone got the snow depth charts for ecm please. Just out of curiosity and i know they arent the best. Looking great for those in central northern england around manchester and leeds, who missed out a lot on the slider low 2 weeks ago

[Paul_1978]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i would love to discuss the 12Z EC tonight but unfortunately the wife is getting a bit miffed with the amount of time i spend looking at the models.

Hope the GFS/EC are going to arouse some interest!!

Sounds like she wants you to be aroused in something other than the model output! 

[Man With Beard]

So some good chances for snow for our northern/western friends next week - particularly over about 200m asl I would guess (400m asl in the South West?).

Looking into the New Year, I don't see signs of a complete and immediate pattern change in the first ten days, but I do see signs of a relaxation of the vortex over Greenland and Canada and consequently a less aggressive form of polar zonality, with opportunities for minor amplification.

ECM and GFS at T216 both show signs of this in the Atlantic though in completely different ways:

  

This trend for temporary moments of Atlantic ridging (between longer low pressure dominated periods) is also evident in the past 3/4 ECM ensemble runs. 

All it would mean is the chance of a couple of temporary 24 hour northerlies before a few days back in a more westerly regime - so not speaking about anything drastically cold. 

Also it must be added, this kind of pattern is fraught with danger, as it often leads to phantom northerlies on the models between T144 and T192, only to be overridden by a shortwave picked up at T144/T120. So if there is a run showing a deeper northerly in the next few days, treat suspiciously IMO and then hope for the best!!

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Has anyone got the snow depth charts for ecm please. Just out of curiosity and i know they arent the best. Looking great for those in central northern england around manchester and leeds, who missed out a lot on the slider low 2 weeks ago

At one’s peril  

[Ice Man 85]

A much more favourable run on the ECM too! Maybe the fat lady has come down with laryngitis?

[ArHu3]

43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i would love to discuss the 12Z EC tonight but unfortunately the wife is getting a bit miffed with the amount of time i spend looking at the models.

Hope the GFS/EC are going to arouse some interest!!

A bit off topic but if you want to see snow and make the wife happy take her on a trip to the snow ?

[Iceaxecrampon]

12z

Slider LP  - pick of the bunch.

Should liven things up in here a bit.

[northwestsnow]

Only a quickie but if EC is correct tonight (and it starts at 96)-

Here are the EC  temp deviation plots for next week!

96

120

144

168

192

I think its reasonable to suggest that looks a cold week with the flow pretty much PM all the way through from tues to saturday!

If thats not a huge upgrade from the 00z run i don't know what is...

 

[Northern Sky]

40 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Has anyone got the snow depth charts for ecm please. Just out of curiosity and i know they arent the best. Looking great for those in central northern england around manchester and leeds, who missed out a lot on the slider low 2 weeks ago

Yes they looked great at this far out for then too. In the end we got a dusting. This time things look less promising to me, I really wouldn't take any notice of those ECM snow depth charts. Of course things may change for the better but to me it looks like snow for high ground - 200m and above. For the rest of us I think it will be cold rain and maybe some sleet.

Obviously I hope I'm wrong and I have to say, I much prefer cold wind and rain to the mild nothingness we have at the moment.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Northern Sky said:

Yes they looked great at this far out for then too. In the end we got a dusting. This time things look less promising to me, I really wouldn't take any notice of those ECM snow depth charts. Of course things may change for the better but to me it looks like snow for high ground - 200m and above. For the rest of us I think it will be cold rain and maybe some sleet.

Obviously I hope I'm wrong and I have to say, I much prefer cold wind and rain to the mild nothingness we have at the moment.

I agree with much of that- of course the angle of the low could change a few hundred miles at 4 days out but at this juncture i think, as you say, high ground above 200m could do very well, 300m and one would expect a decent snow event somewhere along the line-of course only a small % of the population live above 200m, even less above 300m.

Still, as they say, some of the best snow events are marginal ones!!

[northwestsnow]

EC mean keeps the UK below average from tues to thur..

round about average thereafter

In the words of the russian sailor- i really musgo

Edited December 22, 2017 by northwestsnow