Model output discussion - into 2018

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

Bit like ‘Scandi high’ when really, it isn’t. 

Well, it does have high pressure over Scandinavia to be fair. Then if we're splitting hairs it moves across the Baltic towards Russia. I therefore dub it a 'Scanbalssian' high.

 

[shotski]

This to me looks very exciting if of course it verified. A much better prospect of bringing some decent cold weather to our shores, with plenty of snow opportunities too. 

[karyo]

30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sorry K thats not correct here are the 850s at 144

GFS

UKMO

UKMO only goes to 144 but its quite noticeably colder than gfs..

I should have explained why the 168 hour gfs will be colder than UKMO but I was in a bit of a hurry. If you look at the charts that Summer sun posted, the gfs shows a straight w/nw for the UK indicating less modification of the cold uppers while the UKMO has a kink way to the west of us which is a frontal system. The coldest uppers will be to the west of the front and we are to the east of it. Of course the front will eventually cross us but that's after the 168 hours on the UKMO chart and any delay means more moderation as the cold air spends more time over the Atlantic. 

The more the models upgrade the strength of the Russian high the bigger the risk that the cold plunge will be further west than us and it will be more moderated by the time it reaches us. 

[A.J]

1 hour ago, oldsnowywizard said:

I have been a member for a long time.. i dont post that much as I live in Switzerland..however my years of chasing the snow flake for the UK keeps me tapped in to the daily charts, forecasts, wishes, arguments and let downs. I am exceptionally disappointed with the childish undetone and verbal rants of some of the posters (some who should know better). You all are exceptionally lucky to have people on here who provide their THOUGHTS regularly on their OPINION of what COULD happen. They might be RIGHT, they might be WRONG... but they make this forum interesting becuase they are taking their time to give everyone ideas, knowledge and experience. Please have RESPECT for posters and do not start to antagonize becuase something didnt go the way they said. THE WEATHER DOES WHAT THE WEATHER DOES. 

A huge thanks to the members for their contributions over the years

that's true but it's worth mentioning that it is not unreasonable for members to be challenged when making what turns out to be incorrect predictions......It's not just a case of 'one upsmanship' as some seem to think but rather a learning exercise to find out what when wrong and why, so we can all gain knowledge to make more accurate preditions going forward.........

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

So the standoff continues across the model output this morning with the mouth watering polar NW remaining just outside the reliable.

When it gets inside T96 I will get a little more enthusiastic but for now the status quo looks like remaining with the block going nowhere fast.

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, karyo said:

I should have explained why the 168 hour gfs will be colder than UKMO but I was in a bit of a hurry. If you look at the charts that Summer sun posted, the gfs shows a straight w/nw for the UK indicating less modification of the cold uppers while the UKMO has a kink way to the west of us which is a frontal system. The coldest uppers will be to the west of the front and we are to the east of it. Of course the front will eventually cross us but that's after the 168 hours on the UKMO chart and any delay means more moderation as the cold air spends more time over the Atlantic. 

The more the models upgrade the strength of the Russian high the bigger the risk that the cold plunge will be further west than us and it will be more moderated by the time it reaches us. 

No mate i think i got mixed up not you

EC goes onto to show snow showers moving at 168 (backed up by the snow depth charts)

and if anything ukmo looks colder at 144, guess we will have to see how it pans out.

[Chesil View]

Just now, Kentish Snowman said:

So the standoff continues across the model output this morning with the mouth watering polar NW remaining just outside the reliable.

When it gets inside T96 I will get a little more enthusiastic but for now the status quo looks like remaining with the block going nowhere fast.

yes Kentish snowman as per the last week or so of output the interesting stuff be it polar continental or arctic/polar maritime is always beyond the reliable.

[weirpig]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No mate i think i got mixed up not you

EC goes onto to show snow showers moving at 168 (backed up by the snow depth charts)

and if anything ukmo looks colder at 144, guess we will have to see how it pans out.

What part of the country  are these snow showers 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

What part of the country  are these snow showers 

Looking at the EC snow depth charts-most of NW Britain 

Still outside the reliable time frame i was just highlighting the potential really ...

[weirpig]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Looking at the EC snow depth charts-most of NW Britain 

Still outside the reliable time frame i was just highlighting the potential really ...

Sorry Mate  just pulling your leg.  However you are right bags of potential/

[ukpaul]

12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

What part of the country  are these snow showers 

Scotland away from the coasts, Welsh mountains, North Yorkshire Moors, Pennines and more widely across Cumbria, Northumbria and Durham. Later than GFS, delaying things by a couple of days until Thursday.

Edited January 9, 2018 by ukpaul

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

The charts aren't showing it but there's currently snow grains blowing around in parts of South Wales (2C). I think we could get some transient snow later as rain moves in from the west. It's sometimes a very good set up for us on the coast when mild, moist Atlantic air bumps into all this cold air that's been sat over us for a few days. There's hopes later on! 

Edited January 9, 2018 by Draig Goch

[Paul]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking at the EC snow depth charts-most of NW Britain 

Still outside the reliable time frame i was just highlighting the potential really ...

From what I've seen of those EC snow charts, all times are outside of the reliable 

[snowice]

50 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Nearly every post of yours is concerning NW Britain lol....regional thread perhaps??

He's not southwest snow ? he is only stating what the models are showing.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

From what I've seen of those EC snow charts, all times are outside of the reliable 

I know Paul- 

They might downgrade as we approach 0hours

Or they could upgrade of  course..

Fingers crossed they upgrade and include as many people as possible !

I'm not an IMBY poster, infact i popped into the midlands thread in December towish them well (despite my sadness that i was moved from the amber warning area at like 24hours notice)..:D

Edited January 9, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Matthew.]

53 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

To me when weather forecasters call day temps of 5*C cold in winter - I would more likely describe that as cool - 5*C in the day is hardly what I would call cold in mid winter.

That massively depends on windchill though also or on the other hand if your in a col etc with high dew points. There’s a huge difference 

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, pureasthedriven said:

Bit like ‘Scandi high’ when really, it isn’t. 

Better than "Sceuro", "Scrussion" and "Griceland" (shudder) 

[Chesil View]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

Better than "Sceuro", "Scrussion" and "Griceland" (shudder) 

not forgetting Icewegian. Paul. lol

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Better than "Sceuro", "Scrussion" and "Griceland" (shudder) 

Griceland!!!!!thats a mad one????

[Glacier Point]

Looking at the extended days 11-15 EPS mean I would be supportive of the pattern and forecast temperatures for the UK (2C below 30 year average).

The GEFS is broadly similar capturing the key elements, North Pacific ridge, ridge across the eastern CONUS and ridging over the Arctic:

Tropical convective potential is forecast to shift into the Maritime Continent and far Western Pacific during week 2.

That remains a very coherent signal, this time suggesting a rise in angular momentum.

Against that, we have the GFS (and EC to a lesser degree) persisting a low angular momentum base state.

This suggests a GWO showing forward (westerly) tendency but juxtaposed onto a low AAM base state. Phase 3 a strong candidate for week 2.

Composite:

The signal over NW Europe is rather muted. However, with the North pacific ridge and East CONUS ridge, I would be happy to go along with the modelled trough over Europe, temperatures below average given a stronger Arctic ridge.

The key questions going forward will be how much overall angular momentum notches upwards given a favourable convective regime, taking us closer towards a phase 4 outcome:

So for the extended range, the focus shifting to Greenland as a potential source of cold before a possible shift in the focus back towards Scandinavia.

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, TEITS said:

Well I have to confess I was wrong with regards to the E,ly although the models have been too progressive with the Atlantic breaking through.

Still despite this some exciting times ahead. Impressive mean from the GEFS with the GFS OP around -7C which for a W,ly flow is impressive.

Key points to note from next weekend onwards. Do not fuss over snowfall as its pointless at the moment. Obviously favoured locations will do well. What I expect to happen is the W,ly/WNW,ly flow will eventually veer towards a NW/N,ly by around the 20th Jan. Seems to me the 20th Jan is an interesting date (apart from it being my birthday) as we may see cold zonality being replaced by something even colder. I think Catacol mentioned this date a few days ago so hats off to him.

I still think you and SM were onto something.   I see tomorrow's runs as heralding a sea change.  The cold that is now getting its act together in Europe will (emphasise that this is very much an opinion) prompt a big shift in the models.  I have not yet ruled out that we could be under the influence of a potent easterly by sunday! i accept that will take a big shift in what the models are currently showing but big shifts to show easterlys in the models are not unheard of!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well as was brought up last week by many of us in here and what we do know, is when the ECM collapsed and brought in the westerly regime it was way way too progressive and wrong.  

Now this current spell has brought no real potency with it (which was disappointing for me as the synoptic set up has gone to plan but tamer and just not the weather)  but we are settling into my caveat standoff SE flow as the block holds firm.  I think the timing of 15-17 Jan for Atlantic attack is good but I still don’t think that will be the end of the block yet.  Also its good to see the models showing the unusual cold uppers off the Atlantic, something I pointed at last week ....an important piece of the puzzle for me anyway.

I am fascinated though by this model progged Atlantic push for 15th and what progress/or lack of it will make.

 

BFTP

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[andymusic]

meanwhile on the models..............

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

meanwhile on the models..............

Yes andy GFS still promoting a snow PM flow with snow pushing inland quite widely

[Rocheydub]

Some people posting what they want to win popularity contests, not what the current NWP are showing. Very childish!