Model output discussion - mid-winter

[Tim Bland]

Looks like Meto think the low will be further south - and as such probably weaker, as they show snow for the midlands on Weds night. It’s far from settled but I’d bet on this forecast being about right ...

 

[snowray]

Snow depth charts looking pretty good to me. I miss out again down here most likely but never know, lots of chances coming up.

ECM should be good.

[Tim Bland]

No support from the GEFS ensembles for the FI easterly unfortunately 

 

[snowblind]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks like Meto think the low will be further south - and as such probably weaker, as they show snow for the midlands on Weds night. It’s far from settled but I’d bet on this forecast being about right ...

 

That seems to be showing sleet, with snow over the Peak District to me.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

No support from the GEFS ensembles for the FI easterly unfortunately 

 

In graph form, the 12 GEFS are the mildest suite in the long range we've seen for quite a few runs.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=225&y=62

[CK1981]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

In graph form, the 12 GEFS are the mildest suite in the long range we've seen for quite a few runs.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=225&y=62

Sad to see the GFS op as a cold outlier  

[karlos1983]

Here she comes

[The Northern Ramper]

17 minutes ago, snowray said:

Snow depth charts looking pretty good to me. I miss out again down here most likely but never know, lots of chances coming up.

ECM should be good.

Just the 26cm for my location ??

[comet]

Judging by the Euro models it looks as though the GFS  is a couple of degrees low on the 850 temps and if so will make a big difference to where lowland Britain will see low land snow and accumulation. As far as the gfs FI goes it is just that FI at the present time.

[marksp]

well that was  a great run from GFS 12s, not seen it that cold for some time. FI is just great some times, haha, just fab to look at even if its so far out.

compated to last few years this years model watching has been gripping, one things for sure its going to be cold next week, i leave for the London sun to weds so hopefuully when back to teh peraks the fun should still be on

[radiohead]

12Z ECM has a strong low crossing the UK. Seen here later :

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

2 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Just the 26cm for my location ??

Might scrape 1cm in my location on the South Wales coast still if that happened, it would be 1cm more than we've had since 2010! I'd settle for that 

[Methuselah]

I'm thinking that the current preoccupation with computer-generated snow-depth maps can only lead to heartache, in the long term...? IMO, some of the predicted accumulations are bordering on the ridiculous...

Not least, the 0cm that I am being led to expect!

[karlos1983]

Just now, radiohead said:

12Z ECM has a strong low crossing the UK. Seen here later :

965mb that’s no downgrade of strength from the ECM then.... wonder what the MO think of that now we are within +120

[doctor32]

This Low that we all speak of looks to be a very nippy little thing, should whizz through the uk into europe.

So regardless of track any impacts will be short lived (but may be very impactful) depending on track and how deep it gets.

Edited January 13, 2018 by doctor32

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, marksp said:

well that was  a great run from GFS 12s, not seen it that cold for some time. FI is just great some times, haha, just fab to look at even if its so far out.

compated to last few years this years model watching has been gripping, one things for sure its going to be cold next week, i leave for the London sun to weds so hopefuully when back to teh peraks the fun should still be on

London will be chilly in the wind but snowless (as ever) - you may return to something white though!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM is weaker with the low as it crosses UK (and further S) than this morning's run. Gusts inland shown to be around 70-75 mph. As it exits UK though, gusts are shown to increase into the 90s off the Kent coast!

[karlos1983]

Just now, CreweCold said:

ECM is weaker with the low as it crosses UK (and further S) than this morning's run. Gusts inland shown to be around 70-75 mph. As it exits UK though, gusts are shown to increase into the 90s off the Kent coast!

Where can you see that detail Crewe? Meteociel only shows me 24hr increments ?‍♂️

[SMU]

ECM into the lull @144 but still looks good as the main low sinks south-

Good ridging in the Atlantic will 100% see a Northerly @168 but will there be enough of a wedge to swerve the Atlantic south @192 !

Edited January 13, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Where can you see that detail Crewe? Meteociel only shows me 24hr increments ?‍♂️

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/09-w-520-n/gusts-3h-mph/20180118-0900z.html

[Tim Bland]

Latest BBC graphic for Weds night is similar to meto site...

 

 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/09-w-520-n/gusts-3h-mph/20180118-0900z.html

I’ve got that site bookmarked, d’oh ? usually used for fictitious snow depths In my defence 

Edited January 13, 2018 by karlos1983

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM into the lull @144 but still looks good as the main low sinks south-

Good rushing in the Atlantic will 100% see a Northerly @168 but will there be enough of a wedge to swerve the Atlantic south @192 !

Looks very good to me Steve

[karlos1983]

168 looks good for longevity to my eye

Cold air filtering down from the north.

Edited January 13, 2018 by karlos1983

[SMU]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Looks very good to me Steve

Yep 192 sub -8c expected across the Uk poss snow heading for the SW & Southern Ireland-

The UKMO graphic above looks not far North of London!