Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards

[parrotingfantasist]

1 hour ago, Neiller22 said:

Havnt looked at models this morn. Is Tuesday prolonged snow or just showers if it happens? 

I can't tell you my hatred for showers so far this Winter lol. Lets hope the front is actually snow though in the first place 6z and 0z not so keen but 18z said yes.

 

 

[parrotingfantasist]

2 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

I can't tell you my hatred for showers so far this Winter lol. Lets hope the front is actually snow though in the first place 6z and 0z not so keen but 18z said yes.

 

 

Meteogroup latched on though for Tuesday

 

 

Edited February 1, 2018 by parrotingfantasist

[Neiller22]

Cheers. Let’s see happens then. 

[Sperrin]

*must stay calm* Yikeeeeeeees!

 

[mountain shadow]

Top quality GFS 12z & UKMET and ICON.

Any snow falling from the front on Monday night/Tuesday will not be melting quickly with top up from showers.

We could be entering a cold spell not seen since 2010.

[Sussex Jules]

All looks good so far. Way to go yet, seems weird cheering on the cold from the west rather than the east. Had some brief snow showers yesterday but nothing settled apart from the higher hills.

[Neiller22]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Top quality GFS 12z & UKMET and ICON.

Any snow falling from the front on Monday night/Tuesday will not be melting quickly with top up from showers.

We could be entering a cold spell not seen since 2010.

Stay calm MS. Stay calm 

[parrotingfantasist]

Great 12z. Really astonishes me though how west and east are both so cold! With east you are forgiven but the west... -10 uppers? Golly!

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Stay calm MS. Stay calm 

Always Neiller, always.

[Neiller22]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Always Neiller, always.

 it does look very good however. 

[Sneachtastorm]

I took a different route home because of traffic and was surprised to see a fair bit of snow at the sides of the road. Highest point on road is 235m

[Sneachtastorm]

If that front happens to stall, lucky spots could get pasted. Let's hope for a good ECM.

[ronan]

Haven't a clue what's happening in the model thread this this evening as got bored reading due to the amount of will it snow in my back yard posts!! Really is annoying. Snow amounts and front positions won't be nailed till next week and that's even if things pan out they way it is showing in the outputs this evening. Many changes to come. 

[Bottled Snow]

1 hour ago, ronan said:

Haven't a clue what's happening in the model thread this this evening as got bored reading due to the amount of will it snow in my back yard posts!! Really is annoying. Snow amounts and front positions won't be nailed till next week and that's even if things pan out they way it is showing in the outputs this evening. Many changes to come. 

Yes details will change for sure.

As an example, prior to Sunday 10th December snow event, Met Eireann issued snow warning on the Friday for Northwestern, Northern and Northeastern parts of Ireland. Saturday morning they moved the snow risk further south to include the north Midlands. By Saturday night they moved the risk further south again. At one stage several days before event, the models had the front pushing west to east with no snowfall predicted. I then watched the models move to a slider situation and noticed it get modeled further and further south on each run and wondered if my area could possibly squeeze in to the sweet spot zone.  By the time Sunday arrived, many northern parts were dry and the areas worst hit by snow were the south Midlands and southeast. A pleasant surprise for me here in south Kilkenny with decent snowfall and snow cover which stayed intact for a few days. 

In January 2013 I recall a front was forecast to spread up accross Ireland giving heavy snow one Sunday. The day before event forecast changed and snow was now only going to reach Munster and south Leinster. Still ok for me I thought. Subsequently front never made it past Kerry and Cork where some places there got decent accumulations.

 

In November 2010 we had heavy snow here for 6 hours on 27th with 12cms accumulating, when forecast even that morning was for a few snow showers near Dublin and Wicklow coasts

I can recall and am sure many here can recall many similar events. Point being with snowfall, it is often 12 to 24 hours before event (sometimes less) that details can be firmed up on. Yet people on MOD thread are despairing / getting excited over snowfall predictive charts 4 to 5 days away. 

Currently models show a possible snow event crossing Ireland and reaching western UK Monday in to Tuesday before stalling. Yesterday this front was going to reach eastern UK.  Dont be surprised if it fails to get past western Ireland.

Impressve cold being forecast however for next week, which will give many a chance of snow here should precipitation arrive, either from east or west. Not often we can say that

Bottled Snow 

  

Edited February 1, 2018 by Bottled Snow

[Neiller22]

GFS Mon night into Tues big downgrade Im afraid. Tues eve looks a bit better

Im beginning to smell a rat again ! hopefully better in the morn 

Edited February 1, 2018 by Neiller22

[mountain shadow]

17 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

GFS Mon night into Tues big downgrade Im afraid. Tues eve looks a bit better

Im beginning to smell a rat again ! hopefully better in the morn 

It's the 18z GFS Neiller. 

[ronan]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's the 18z GFS Neiller. 

But it was the massive upgrade on the 18's last night that got everyone worked up including me. Lol. It can't be discounted.

[Sneachtastorm]

Remember the switches before the last cold spell, looked great initially then went crap for a couple of days then upgraded closer to the time with the low pressure system centre going south of us instead of to the North. My point is it will chop and change a lot. We have cold to the west and the east so let's give it a couple of days and see where we're at. 

[Neiller22]

it was the 18Z that started to smell the coffee in the last breakdown after the last boom charts

[Sneachtastorm]

49 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

it was the 18Z that started to smell the coffee in the last breakdown after the last boom charts

And it was wrong, because it reverted back to what it originally showed and that's what transpired. 

[Neiller22]

1 hour ago, Sneachtastorm said:

And it was wrong, because it reverted back to what it originally showed and that's what transpired. 

Not for the east it didnt. The NW/W /N got a lot of snow during January in that wee spell but us in the east got very very little and the evening when the NW/W/N all got 5 hrs of snow us in the east got heavy rain so it didnt exactly revert back to what it had  initially showed but i do take your point.

[Sneachtastorm]

Fair enough. I meant it had changed for the centre to go through Scotland but it went through Ireland and the models backtracked closer to the time . The East did better overall on the Monday night Tuesday snow, we did better on the Wednesday . Anyway I hope it's a good week for everyone. 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Radio Ulster going for a period of snow on Monday night, says an eye needs to be kept on this

[mountain shadow]

Lovely charts again this morning. 

GFS still a little progressive with the front on Monday night but the ECM and UKM isn't so still looking good. 

After that, embedded cold with slow  moving troughs around.

 

[Bottled Snow]

1 hour ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Radio Ulster going for a period of snow on Monday night, says an eye needs to be kept on this

Met Eireann also going for accumulations of snow to low levels Monday night. Fairly underwhelming forecast from them after that with wintry showers near west send north coasts over following few days and rain later in the week. If ECM charts this morning are near the mark, hopefully their forecast will upgrade snow prospects next week

Bottled Snow

Edited February 2, 2018 by Bottled Snow