Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not too keen on this ECM, i dont like the orientation of the Atlantic troughing.

Chill Feb lol . T192 looks good  

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's better at 192 hrs than the 0z was at 216 hrs...higher latitude ridging in Scandi and LP undercutting better from the E. Yes, the Atlantic troughing is stronger but that might not be an issue if the profile out E is OK.

Yes - scrap that post before, i thought the trough was going to be too much and overwhem the pattern, moral of that post, dont go against your own theory and i did, my theory is look at how fast the trough is moving from frame to frame on the previous frames and it was moving slowly, but  despite that i just looked at the tilt and how menacing it looked and went on that alone.

[ICE COLD]

Not sure what to make of T216 ? 

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Not sure what to make of T216 ? 

The high look to be moving to far East for my liking at the later stages.

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, booferking said:

The high look to be moving to far East for my liking at the later stages.

Yes that's what I was thinking. ECM T240 NH view:

I don't see the quick route to cold from there although the block may continue to disrupt the vortex.

Meanwhile, flicking though the GEFS P18 at T324 looks interesting in terms of trop vortex disruption.

And JMA looking good at T192 (not for the first time with this model actually):

Edited November 9, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Duane S.]

Not sure why any dispondancy given the current state. It's a great looking ECM in relative terms. We shouldn't be expecting a bonkers cold chart a D+10, it isn't going to happen. Not yet.

Clearly the difference between the ECM evolution on the 12z is the cutoff low off NW Norway. Then there are increased signs of trough disruption out in the Atlantic.

This really is not a bad run out to D10 at all. All to play for as we get towards the end of the month.

[Methuselah]

38 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well the ECM is better than the GFS at T144 . .

Could it possibly be worse?

[SMU]

The high pressure @240 on ECM is unlikely to slide away east as if you look close theres another wave in the SW approaches about to dive SE ...

[Allseasons-Si]

Look at this run upto Christmas eve from this mornings cfs!!!

if that was to come off,which it wont,but nice to look at though with nearly a full on reversal

 

 

Edited November 9, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

@BLAST FROM THE PAST@Ed Stone

Is this what your envisaging?

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Slightly better ecm mean than the one this morning with better/lower height's in central europe propping the high up better,still with a ESE continental feed as this mornings,the op a milder outlier than the mean at the end too.

Edited November 9, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[carinthian]

9 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, picture below taken on our local mountain a few years ago. Certainly, no scenes like that presently, just barren snowless tops during this remarkable warm Autumn in most of Europe. Some resorts are due to open in 3 weeks time, think its going to be a struggle as there is very little snow to work with. Regarding the hunt for cold, remember I told you recently a slow burner development of a Scandinavian Block , sometimes produces the best results and that's what our experts think this morning. Their model still shows the mildness to peak in the British Isles towards next weekend around 17th . Strengthening high pressure over Scandinavia around 23rd. Towards the end of the month , ratings increase for retrogressive  developments with a split in the polar jet to favour this process. They also indicate of some divergence aloft over Western/ Central Europe with surface pressure fall  and upper level trough and a backing of the wind flow , but one they say to watch. Early days and as I say a slow burner in process but looking good for a cold end to the month .

C

This picture from ECM at 240 t looks like classic Atlantic frontal divergence against the high pressure block to the east. Forecast 300mb winds likely to slide the trough SE into Europe which should allow a colder surface flow into the British Isles. 

C

[SMU]

ECM day 10 mean is almost a spitting image of Feb 1991 minus the deep upper cold pool

However remember its the mean so expect lower heights in the SE quadrant if that shape does verify!

[Allseasons-Si]

Steve!

i think you should hunt for the phone charger not the cold

Edited November 9, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Methuselah]

50 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@BLAST FROM THE PAST@Ed Stone

Is this what your envisaging?

 

Something very much like that, aye...Fred?

[Wilxy]

Quite a progressive 12z GFS!

 

[jules216]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM day 10 mean is almost a spitting image of Feb 1991 minus the deep upper cold pool

However remember its the mean so expect lower heights in the SE quadrant if that shape does verify!

Ensembles EPS seem to agree @Steve Murr

[Allseasons-Si]

This is a real monopoly of charts from the latest cpc

Atlantic:-go to jail,do not pass go(the uk) and do not collect the mild muck....c u

De-Built temps and dewpoints better(for cold)than last evenings

now look at the members on the wind direction gaining momentum

last evening's v's today's

The latest teleconnections suggest that the AO is starting to tank into negative but the NAO has trended slightly positive

and finally the gefs/ecm ens mean pressure anomoly's,we have the best block across the northern hemisphere,if it pans out like that of cause.

 

Edited November 9, 2018 by Allseasons-si
spell check

[SMU]

^^Nice post - The ECM control is probably the perfect cycle of southerly > Easterly ...

[feb1991blizzard]

Lets just hope its a typical GFS 18z overestimation of the Atlantic's power.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just a question

how often does the ec 46 come out?

[Don]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lets just hope its a typical GFS 18z overestimation of the Atlantic's power.

I take it the 18z is not too clever for those wanting cold!

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lets just hope its a typical GFS 18z overestimation of the Atlantic's power.

Yes,not looking good but it is one run....for the bin i hope

it will not dampen my spirits after viewing what i posted^

Edited November 9, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Just a question

how often does the ec 46 come out?

Mondays and Thursdays, its run (as far as im aware - bluearmy will put me right if not) with the same data that ends the 0z EPS run on those dates, it takes a whole day to come out, hence why it doesn't update until the nigh time.

3 minutes ago, Don said:

I take it the 18z is not too clever for those wanting cold!

Its certainly not great up until 186 but it may improve deeper into the run.

[northwestsnow]

18z not looking anything like EC thats for sure.

00Z runs will hopefully reveal more, GFS has the jet roaring away north of the high ..