Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[northwestsnow]

EC mean solid on an inreasingly cooler continental flow..suspect the op may have been one of the more aggressive with the Atlantic by day 10..

[carinthian]

13 hours ago, carinthian said:

This picture from ECM at 240 t looks like classic Atlantic frontal divergence against the high pressure block to the east. Forecast 300mb winds likely to slide the trough SE into Europe which should allow a colder surface flow into the British Isles. 

C

Morning all to all you hunters of the cold. ECM solid again in its output with-in the day 10 time frame and looks the best route to colder surface flow  into your part of the world. From my perspective , I like that upper cold air getting near to the Eastern Alps(snow) Looks like frontal divergence zone to develop near to the British Isles. Ideally we would like to see a SEly dig. The GFS latest run less so as their 300mb upper air pattern is showing less of a split in this run. Will get an update from our experts over here on Monday morning, but I think this weekends runs will now start to shed some light if the powerful block is going to shows its hand and start dictating the weather .

C

Edited November 10, 2018 by carinthian

[Methuselah]

I know it's at T+384 but, I think, there might be a small trend (toward some sort of favourably-orientated Atlantic high) developing later in the month? Nothing definite of course, at such a distance, but teeny-weeny hints of a possible attack from the northwest...Nowt to lose any sleep over yet, IMO. At the same time, however, any major advection of deep cold into Russia seems to have been 'put on hold' for the time being...?

All change with the 06Z no doubt!

[Leo97t]

Not in any rush to get cold. All looking good at the moment. I suspect at this time of the year, a northerly will probably be colder than a easterly so I'd like to see some heights go into the Atlantic 

[Tim Bland]

54 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I know it's at T+384 but, I think, there might be a small trend (toward some sort of favourably-orientated Atlantic high) developing later in the month? Nothing definite of course, at such a distance, but teeny-weeny hints of a possible attack from the northwest...Nowt to lose any sleep over yet, IMO. At the same time, however, any major advection of deep cold into Russia seems to have been 'put on hold' for the time being...?

All change with the 06Z no doubt!

I’m struggling to see any trends from the GFS in FI recently, it’s consistently inconsistent!  ECM however is holding onto the signal for a strong Scandi high and sees the Euro cold pool advancing west after day 10 - so that looks like the best trend at the moment. 

 

Edited November 10, 2018 by Tim Bland

[Methuselah]

23 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’m struggling to see any trends from the GFS in FI recently, it’s consistently inconsistent!  ECM however is holding onto the signal for a strong Scandi high and sees the Euro cold pool advancing west after day 10 - so that looks like the best trend at the moment. 

 

I tend to agree with you, Tim, hence my liberal use of italics...Though, surely, we can't remain in this apparent 'no man's land' for ever?

Edited November 10, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Met4Cast]

It's difficult to pick out a trend when the GFS is being woefully inconsistent. Even the ensembles don't offer much light with a massive spread in the extended, though there are a few more members trended cold than we've seen in recent runs.

The ECM 12z clusters from yesterday not really offering much clue forward at the moment, either

No real clear signal amongst that with lots of different options on the table. Heigh rises towards Scandinavia look increasingly likely but where these heights sit exactly and how cold it'll be is anyones guess. I'm still expecting things to turn colder, but you'd have a hard time backing that up looking at this mornings model outputs. 

Shannon entropy must be at an all time high.

[Methuselah]

A pattern that's notoriously hard to shift, once established...

And where do things go from here?

Edited November 10, 2018 by Ed Stone

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A pattern that's notoriously hard to shift, once established...

Was it not you who posted a similar pattern on the retro charts the other day from either Nov 78 or 62 i think, your reasoning being that you don't buy into the need to avoid zonality in November to achieve success in winter proper.

[Met4Cast]

Better amplification towards Scandi on this run at 150, lets see if the GFS can make it

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Better amplification towards Scandi on this run at 150, lets see if the GFS can make it

Yep thought it achally looked better than the ECM at T144 . 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I know it's at T+384 but, I think, there might be a small trend (toward some sort of favourably-orientated Atlantic high) developing later in the month? Nothing definite of course, at such a distance, but teeny-weeny hints of a possible attack from the northwest...Nowt to lose any sleep over yet, IMO. At the same time, however, any major advection of deep cold into Russia seems to have been 'put on hold' for the time being...?

All change with the 06Z no doubt!

Indeed Pete and 06z UpTo 172 has much better orientation of Scandi HP developing...typical.  Like you I have a niggle

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Was it not you who posted a similar pattern on the retro charts the other day from either Nov 78 or 62 i think, your reasoning being that you don't buy into the need to avoid zonality in November to achieve success in winter proper.

Well you don't, so I don't get your point, feb: we have what we have? 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Well you don't, so I don't get your point, feb: we have what we have? 

 

because you said they are notoriously hard to shift Ed!!   so surely going by what you had said previously, your surmising of the effects of the chart you just posted should have been 'Does't really matter about this chart because it can have no effect on patterns well into the future and in a months time we could be staring at another 1947 scenario'

[feb1991blizzard]

Good WAA on this run, could be a stonker coming up here (synoptically speaking)

And it is!!!!!

Edited November 10, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Met4Cast]

Boom chart incoming perhaps?

[ICE COLD]

Nice run from the 6z . Greenland is the destination

[feb1991blizzard]

If we could get to this position on the 6z then December a real goer.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If we could get to this position on the 6z then December a real goer.

That NH profile at the end of the gfs op is wintry nirvana incoming .......  look at the Canadian block and Asian vortex ......sadly, it won’t verify .......

Edited November 10, 2018 by bluearmy

[ICE COLD]

What a stonking view . 

Ands some cold air to boot .

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

That NH profile at the end of the gfs op is wintry nirvana incoming .......  it won’t verify .......

Are the D10-15 of the 0z EPS poor?

[feb1991blizzard]

Further up none to shoddy for this time of year either.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Are the D10-15 of the 0z EPS poor?

Not poor - more amplified re sceuro block than yesterday’s 12z was but still not overly informative .....I expect the clusters will be quite varied again .....

[carinthian]

On ‎09‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 10:31, carinthian said:

Morning all, picture below taken on our local mountain a few years ago. Certainly, no scenes like that presently, just barren snowless tops during this remarkable warm Autumn in most of Europe. Some resorts are due to open in 3 weeks time, think its going to be a struggle as there is very little snow to work with. Regarding the hunt for cold, remember I told you recently a slow burner development of a Scandinavian Block , sometimes produces the best results and that's what our experts think this morning. Their model still shows the mildness to peak in the British Isles towards next weekend around 17th . Strengthening high pressure over Scandinavia around 23rd. Towards the end of the month , ratings increase for retrogressive  developments with a split in the polar jet to favour this process. They also indicate of some divergence aloft over Western/ Central Europe with surface pressure fall  and upper level trough and a backing of the wind flow , but one they say to watch. Early days and as I say a slow burner in process but looking good for a cold end to the month .

C

Would be nice if this came off. Everything in place for retrogressive developments by months end. Split jet and hint of falling heights over Europe and backing of the wind flow. Lets hope the trend continues. Getting excited.

C

[Tim Bland]

Gfs I love you ..all is forgiven