Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[northwestsnow]

Just now, shaky said:

Good way bad way

I'd prefer UKMO shaky , GFS very aggressive with the Atlantic ..(again).

[Met4Cast]

Heights are going up towards Scandi, bit of a battleground between low and high pressure though

That'd have quite an impact on the Vortex though. Better than the 06z but not quite there in terms of UK cold.

Edited November 9, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'd prefer UKMO shaky , GFS very aggressive with the Atlantic ..(again).

Do we not say that everytime there is a block to the east tho.. the gfs always underestimates blocking to the east and barrels the atlantic thru.

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

looks like possibly a dip in pressure after mid month in Greenland then a rise again

 

Reykjavik pressure chart starting to look interesting with a possible rise in pressure after mid month with a couple taking it above 1045 hpa 

 

scandi high (Oslo) looking to gain strength with some also getting towards 1045 hpa

  

My summation of those charts is, model looks pretty solid 15 perhaps 16th, beyond that, toss a coin!

Edited November 9, 2018 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

Just now, johnholmes said:

My summation of those charts is, model looks pretty solid 50 15 perhaps 16th, beyond that, toss a coin!

The other comment is regarding what 'may' happen to the European high. I may well be wrong but I do not think that there are many instances where such a high has moved and spent some time over northern/central Scandinavia. Perhaps someone can say how right or wrong this is with examples?

 

[Met4Cast]

276hrs low pressure is undercutting the high from Eastern Europe, that'll stop it sinking at least

[Geordiesnow]

Not an awful lot of change in the outlook to my eyes, would not rule out the Atlantic having more of an influence if the models do start to trend that way in future runs but I would still back that the Euro high will hold firm but hopefully the high will have more of an influence and keeps things blocked and perhaps inversion cold coming into play eventually rather than the Atlantic being too close so its wet over Northern Ireland and Western Scotland and everywhere else will have too much cloud and wind for frost/fog to come into play. 

The record CET for this month is surely going to be under threat if the outlook does prove to be correct and the Southerlies and SW'lies winds continue. 

[Rayth]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

276hrs low pressure is undercutting the high from Eastern Europe, that'll stop it sinking at least

And after numerous attempts at breaking the door down at the front , we are about to have an attempted burglary  from the back @ 300hrs

 

 

[Met4Cast]

Positives from the 12z GFS is that it's more blocked then the 6z was in the medium timeframe. You've got much more ridging North into Scandinavia, it goes a little awol towards the end of the run with the block seemingly just vanishing which isn't all that realistic. 

The important part is yet again we're seeing upgrades in the medium for the blocking to not be pushed away, the ICON and UKMO models show this too. As long as we continue to see those minor upgrades in the medium, we're good going forward.

I still see no sign of Atlantic driven weather like some are suggesting. Will it be bone chillingly cold? No, we've got a spell of quite mild weather to get through first with Southerly winds as the blocking high extends Northwards, beyond that likely it'll turn gradually colder, how cold and where the block actually sets up/what orientation is the questions that need to be answered. 

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Positives from the 12z GFS is that it's more blocked then the 6z was in the medium timeframe. You've got much more ridging North into Scandinavia, it goes a little awol towards the end of the run with the block seemingly just vanishing which isn't all that realistic. 

The important part is yet again we're seeing upgrades in the medium for the blocking to not be pushed away, the ICON and UKMO models show this too. As long as we continue to see those minor upgrades in the medium, we're good going forward.

I still see no sign of Atlantic driven weather like some are suggesting. Will it be bone chillingly cold? No, we've got a spell of quite mild weather to get through first with Southerly winds as the blocking high extends Northwards, beyond that likely it'll turn gradually colder, how cold and where the block actually sets up/what orientation is the questions that need to be answered. 

Agreed Daniel.

TBH UKMO and GFS look so different at 144 i'm reluctant to put much faith in anything GFS shows thereafter.Lets see what ECM comes up with later.

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Positives from the 12z GFS is that it's more blocked then the 6z was in the medium timeframe. You've got much more ridging North into Scandinavia, it goes a little awol towards the end of the run with the block seemingly just vanishing which isn't all that realistic. 

The important part is yet again we're seeing upgrades in the medium for the blocking to not be pushed away, the ICON and UKMO models show this too. As long as we continue to see those minor upgrades in the medium, we're good going forward.

I still see no sign of Atlantic driven weather like some are suggesting. Will it be bone chillingly cold? No, we've got a spell of .quite mild weather to get through first with Southerly winds as the blocking high extends Northwards, beyond that likely it'll turn gradually colder, how cold and where the block actually sets up/what orientation is the questions that need to be answered. 

Indeed and it will only turn cooler/colder if the high is close enough to the UK like the ECM shows but if the Atlantic troughs are too close, there will be too much wind and instead of a SSE'ly flow, it be more of a SSW'ly airflow and much milder as a result, its too early to say which though and of course as with weather, it could turn out to be differently to even that.

I would not rule out the Atlantic coming into play if the PV does increase over Greenland and the Canadian Arctic like the GFS 12Z shows. At least one positive, its not 1 month ahead and we are seeing charts like this.

[Methuselah]

Not at all inspiring, in the short-term, but the vortex looks to be continually misshapen... Any real cold before month's end is now looking less likely, IMO:

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not at all inspiring, in the short-term, but the vortex looks to be continually misshapen... Any real cold before month's end is now looking less likely, IMO:

 

Continuous signals for deep deep cold heading into W Russia in the latter frames, and that Eastern Europe cold pool. 

May not be ideal for us just yet, but it will sure get the goods prepped if we do end up with an easterly. 

Edited November 9, 2018 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[SMU]

The GFS is a better run tonight although still way out on its own-

Plenty of harmony on the ICON / UKMO / GEM at day 6 then fair agreement at 180 ICON/ GEM although ICON is better...

GEM very good at day 10-

Eyes down on the ECM - expecting a good one....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Lol, just read previous page and then went to press next and it showed...............62/63...

 

BFTP

Edited November 9, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not at all inspiring, in the short-term, but the vortex looks to be continually misshapen... Any real cold before month's end is now looking less likely, IMO:

 

I would be very happy with that chart....there would be cold pouring fown from the North after that with a cold pattern in place.

Pete your earlier post could be of big relevance re direction of initial cold attack

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I would be very happy with that chart....there would be cold pouring fown from the North after that with a cold pattern in place.

Pete your earlier post could be of big relevance re direction of initial cold attack

BFTP

Indeed Fred. I think we might be seeing a similar long-term evolution?

[jules216]

I think GFS illustrates quite well how important is to monitor developments around to the east and south east of that Scandinavian anticyclone, if a short wave develops around Black sea or eastern med. it can help keeping the high in place north enough along with possible Atlantic energy undercut as perhaps hinted by some EPS members, plenty of interest going forward, the GFS run would be very cold on surface just shy of eastern England

[ICE COLD]

Well the ECM is better than the GFS at T144 . .

[feb1991blizzard]

Not too keen on this ECM, i dont like the orientation of the Atlantic troughing.

[SMU]

Houston we have lift off !

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Not too keen on this ECM, i dont like the orientation of the Atlantic troughing.

Looks great to me Feb

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks great to me Feb

It does now yes sir!!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not too keen on this ECM, i dont like the orientation of the Atlantic troughing.

It's better at 192 hrs than the 0z was at 216 hrs...higher latitude ridging in Scandi and LP undercutting better from the E. Yes, the Atlantic troughing is stronger but that might not be an issue if the profile out E is OK.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192, looks much better to me, position of block looks better: