Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Met4Cast]

Not much mention about the GEM but the overnight run was fantastic. 

Scandi high

To Greenland high

[tinybill]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Not much mention about the GEM but the overnight run was fantastic. 

Scandi high

To Greenland high

all  i say is all eyes on fantasy world  at the  moment its looking good at the  moment

 

[SMU]

First out the blocks is the icon & a good start!

[damianslaw]

Keep an eye on model forecast synoptics for NW Russia region, it may be we see cold air advection advance quite quickly down the eastern flank of any scandi height build of pressure, which would be the trigger for heights orientating westwards to our north - setting up a position for colder air to filter in more quickly than perhaps currently anticipated.The icon forecast above shows this.

However, need to get the heights over scandi first..

[Mike Poole]

Well the GEM 12z certainly puts the heights over Scandi, again really strong block.

No cold to tap into - yet.

[SLEETY]

And gfs making a pigs ear of things as usual when blocking becomes prominent over Scandinavia etc.

Always struggles in these type of scenarios for some reason.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

And gfs making a pigs ear of things as usual when blocking becomes prominent over Scandinavia etc.

Always struggles in these type of scenarios for some reason.

Still could turn out a good run for cold in FI though.

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still could turn out a good run for cold in FI though.

Yer I reckon is gonna turn into a good run . Here at T231

[Met4Cast]

I'm really struggling why we bother looking at the GFS and don't throw it into the conon fodder along with the likes of GME/CFS, it's consistency is abysmal. 

Good looking GEM, at least there's some consistency there

[ICE COLD]

Cold pool getting into the south east . 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Cold pool getting into the south east . 

Yes, and some significant air frosts by then as well.

[ICE COLD]

And now we're of to Greenland

[ICE COLD]

And now from the north 

[SLEETY]

well it’s better  near the end ,but too messy earlier in the run to give it much chance of being anywhere near correct.

[ICE COLD]

Well it's another good run . As long as we keep getting runs looking like this -

then it's all good in the hood . Over to you ECM . 

[ICE COLD]

Oh and a nice warming up top . Just to top it all off

[SLEETY]

yes if the end of the gfs verified we would be looking at the start of a decent cold spell.Look at all the blocking over Greenland and the Atlantic.At least we don’t seem to heading in to something like November December 2015 ? and the ridiculous mild weather we endured for weeks back then.

[Methuselah]

Aye folks, the only way is up!

And Fred's 'snow by month's end' is definitely on the cards...

Edited November 10, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Geordiesnow]

18 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I'm really struggling why we bother looking at the GFS and don't throw it into the conon fodder along with the likes of GME/CFS, it's consistency is abysmal. 

Good looking GEM, at least there's some consistency there

Your not going to get run to run consistancy at that range but the trends are for the weather to turn significantly milder again next week but drier also from Wednesday onwards as the Euro high tries to make it influence over the UK. The question is, can the Euro high extend further Northwards and westwards or will the Northern jet prove to be too strong? Far too early to say at this stage but most runs does suggest the high will extend further Northwards so a continental flow could well develop eventually. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Ensembles are good, there should be some ridiculous NH 500mb patterns at the end, there are a few where the PV is being sliced open from the Iceland area Northwards straght through the pole, the best you can get IMO.

[Met4Cast]

GFS sets the upper stratosphere on fire towards the end of the run.

The GFS 12z for me is not a good run. It gets there in the end with some pleasing synoptics which suggests the trend for blocking heights is growing, however it's so messy in the medium term it's difficult to take it seriously. 

But. Important thing is that the trend is still there and hopefully the GEFS show it to be growing.

[jules216]

While concentrating more on the Scandi block and Barents/Kara/Laptev blocking we now have NAO slowly discreetly moving downwards, it has been hinted at by EPS46d the other day, period between 22.11 and 05.12 looks interesting now.

[Met4Cast]

In fact, possibly the best or one of the best sets of the ensembles yet, plenty of options on the table of course but the key thing for me is the number that show blocking heights to the N/NE

9/21 show this kind of setup. A few have high pressure closer to the UK and a few have Atlantic dominated weather.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

GFS sets the upper stratosphere on fire towards the end of the run.

The GFS 12z for me is not a good run. It gets there in the end with some pleasing synoptics which suggests the trend for blocking heights is growing, however it's so messy in the medium term it's difficult to take it seriously. 

But. Important thing is that the trend is still there and hopefully the GEFS show it to be growing.

Yes been watching the very top of the strat on the Instantweathermaps site for a few days now, a warming was showing a few days ago but its back, Ive been watching these strat charts now for most of the last decade since chionomaniac pioneered strat monitoring with his threads, usually for a really favourable major midwinter warming, you need those white-pink colours to be off the scale as it comes round the back of the eurasian sector as its still got to get right into the pole split (or significantly displcace) the PV then propogate, however, this is early in the season, the vortex is already on shaky ground and also that area of purple is very large - i think if we could somehow by hook or by crook get that chart into the reliable timeframe, my confidence of something spectacular wrt first half of winter would dramatically increase.

[JBMWeatherForever]

I really like the way the models seem to be bit by bit moving in the direction of a cold outbreak from somewhere between east and north before November is out. As is often the case in such situations, we may even be nearer to the start of a cold spell than is currently being suggested. Things are looking very interesting from a cold weather perspective.