Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

While those ensembles might not look bone chilling in terms of 850s, there is a lot of ppn around, and we could see plenty of snow and snow opportunities coming up. Very good going forward.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Fat Flabby stagnant Lows wollowing in our own cold pool.....Just the thought makes me salivate....AT 144Z

In those scenarios features crop up at will

gfs-1-144.png

gfs-0-144.png

And as an aside....all those who curse at being surrounded by water will think very differently

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

The week 2 para isn’t far from how I imagined the week 2 eps would play out 

I will 100% take that right now then if that is broadly what you think will be happening, cold with multiple snow opportunities beyond the ones that are within the week.

Some decent northern blocking starting to emerge on the ensembles as well deep into FI right in my ballpark time of 5-10th Feb. Still a long way to go till that point though. Your idea of a Scandi high is starting to show its hand.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
NoTraction Rookie

NoTraction

Posted
  • Location: crosshands south west wales 135ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather events and always love snow
  • Location: crosshands south west wales 135ft asl
Posted
1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Cracking chart from gfs..coutrywide -8 850s and snow potential..shetland..down to southern coastal counties!!

gfsnh-1-186.png

gfsnh-0-186.png

If i'm reading it right, is that not countrywide -6 with tiny pockets of -8?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

One more thing to thank the orange one for.

Screenshot_20190124_190532.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

In the right set-up even those above -5c could well be snow given the right wind direction, etc.

They are a good set indeed.

and as you say...snow chances very large.

The drop line is notable!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, NoTraction said:

If i'm reading it right, is that not countrywide -6 with tiny pockets of -8?

Splitting hairs...

Take it as large scale...on a smaller dynamic...

Its a great chart.

Especialy in snow terms...

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted
40 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Great para..

Wants southern england on shutdown-

Really interesting watching these features in track and trace over coming days...and lets be honest...its any 1s guess atm....

gfs-0-174 (1).png

Disasterous! Travelling north on M5 to Brum airport that afternoon. Really hoping for model implosion now

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Disasterous! Travelling north on M5 to Brum airport that afternoon. Really hoping for model implosion now

Leave now! You’ll be there by the time it snows!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Great charts this evening from the big guns, FV3 my pick, unstable flow cold uppers in place, could snow anywhere, here T222:

image.thumb.jpg.3fbefa6f876aaef87cb4742ecfcb24fb.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1cb440bdf89f07b46c55cb77006abacb.jpg

Can't wait for the ECM!  Rolling now...

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Popular Post
Posted
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The week 2 para isn’t far from how I imagined the week 2 eps would play out 

and I note the snow chart is wall to wall by the end of it, as a result of repeated snow events. 

However, I'm going to say this now BEFORE the ECM finishes - the models are all over the place on the detail even at D4. Going to be a "wait and see" week! 

  • Like 11
Link to comment
Share on other sites
NoTraction Rookie

NoTraction

Posted
  • Location: crosshands south west wales 135ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather events and always love snow
  • Location: crosshands south west wales 135ft asl
Posted
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Splitting hairs...

Take it as large scale...on a smaller dynamic...

Its a great chart.

Especialy in snow terms...

Not disputing the fact its a great chart but i get confused what shade of blue is -8. I take it that its showing between -6 to -8 over the whole country and not -8 to -10?..... also it will change as we progress, hopefully for the better! Tia

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Splitting hairs...

Take it as large scale...on a smaller dynamic...

Its a great chart.

Especialy in snow terms...

Bisecting rabbits? In here? Perish the thought, TI!:crazy:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The GEFS 12z mean becomes very cold next week onwards, some parts of the uk sub zero and there's plenty of snow potential to go with it..first proper cold spell looks to be on the way.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM T120 looks similar to UKMO

image.thumb.jpg.3410b159e3f81342e61ee1a891663384.jpg

after the 975 low moves away could a ridge pop up upstream and connect north here?

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Game on the ECM at 120hrs....

Indeed worth noting that the 120hrs chart itself is very good and cold aloft, I'd bet there could well be some surprises with that type of flow.

ps, will probably be a more northern based run due to there being a lobe of the PV splitting off, but its got a good angle still.

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

The Euros maintaining that there will be a much deeper/sharper trough into Europe than GFS models by 120

ECH1-120.GIF?24-0gfsnh-0-120.png

The smart money will be on the Euros as I have noticed not only do they tend to be more accurate at shorter ranges but that they model troughing into Europe much better than GFS.

 

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T120 looks similar to UKMO

image.thumb.jpg.3410b159e3f81342e61ee1a891663384.jpg

after the 975 low moves away could a ridge pop up and connect north here?

That would be my best guess yes. LP on a good looming angle, very similar to the UKMO I have to say which gives us confidence. Hopefully it weakens a little as it moves ESE...but even if not, the shape and angle should mean the cold is still close by if worst comes to the worst.

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...