Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[Sunny76]

3 hours ago, Big daddy 49 said:

Everyone WITH weather knowledge was completely writing off July and August a few weeks ago.Mr know nothing me,said have faith,I bet it gets better.And so it came to pass!.

Hopefully it stays like this, but you never know with August lol. 

[cheese]

1 hour ago, hillbilly said:

Not sure what all the fuss is about,just hit 23 deg here joint highest temp this year.

27C a few miles east in Leeds. 

[B87]

8 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Hopefully it stays like this, but you never know with August lol. 

You can pretty much guarantee that August will fail to reach 200 hours of sun these days.

July has been pretty average in terms of sunshine, will probably finish average or maybe slightly above.

Edited July 22, 2019 by B87

[cheese]

Just now, Sunny76 said:

Hopefully it stays like this, but you never know with August lol. 

Maybe this will be like 1995.. disappointing June followed by a warm July and hot August.

[Sunny76]

Just now, cheese said:

Maybe this will be like 1995.. disappointing June followed by a warm July and hot August.

Hopefully, but I think July 1995 was consistently sunnier with barely any cloud for days.

[Man With Beard]

Top temperature today appears to have been 30C in Norfolk - an early demonstration of how the models are undoing things

[Stabilo19]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Top temperature today appears to have been 30C in Norfolk - an early demonstration of how the models are undoing things

No, quite the opposite as many places were stuck under cloud until the afternoon and temps were overdone for many in London and the SE. 

[cheese]

5 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

No, quite the opposite as many places were stuck under cloud until the afternoon and temps were overdone for many in London and the SE. 

Maybe for your location but there’s more to the country than just London.. shocking I know.

[Captain Shortwave]

To fair the Arpege was pretty much spot on and has been for days. Warmest over East Anglia and Lincolnshire. Looks like the high as 29.5C at Tibenham going by Meteociel.

North London saw 28C, south London cooler as expected.

Other models were short by a couple of degrees, as per usual biases (The GFS at T0 was 2C short for instance).

It won't make much difference going forward as today was a rather potent tropical maritime flow, the continental flow that will dominate the next few days starts to push in during the early hours.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[Stabilo19]

9 minutes ago, cheese said:

Maybe for your location but there’s more to the country than just London.. shocking I know.

Erm most of the south east was covered with cloud until the afternoon - London, Surrey, Hampshire, Kent..

[Stabilo19]

10 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

To fair the Arpege was pretty much spot on and has been for days. Warmest over East Anglia and Lincolnshire. Looks like the high as 29.5C at Tibenham going by Meteociel.

North London saw 28C, south London cooler as expected.

Other models were short by a couple of degrees, as per usual biases (The GFS at T0 was 2C short for instance).

It won't make much difference going forward as today was a rather potent tropical maritime flow, the continental flow that will dominate the next few days starts to push in during the early hours.

 BBC and MO both went for 29 for London and parts of the SE in their graphics, and then mentioned high likelihood of 30 degrees in broadcasts. 

 

Don’t get me wrong, I want heat as much as the next person but I just thought it’s a bit misleading to say the models underdone temps as it suggests the following days will be hotter than forecast. 

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

 BBC and MO both went for 29 for London and parts of the SE in their graphics, and then mentioned high likelihood of 30 degrees in broadcasts. 

 

Don’t get me wrong, I want heat as much as the next person but I just thought it’s a bit misleading to say the models underdone temps as it suggests the following days will be hotter than forecast. 

But you’re only speaking about a certain area of the country. The maximum temperature here was comfortably above the BBC forecast.

[Stabilo19]

8 minutes ago, cheese said:

But you’re only speaking about a certain area of the country. The maximum temperature here was comfortably above the BBC forecast.

Yes, that’s true. I just wanted to add a bit of balance to the thread. Some places were above and others below. 

[MP-R]

Well despite stubborn cloud that hung around all day, much longer than expected, it still reached 25C here. Tomorrow better be sunny!

[danm]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

Maybe for your location but there’s more to the country than just London.. shocking I know.

He’s being slightly dramatic. The cloud lifted by midday and we got to 27c-28c in London. 

[Agnostick]

I really can't wait for this spell to end.  Call me a spoilsport but hot weather really makes me grouchy.  The only good news for me is the fact that it being late July there's only another month or so for eany real heat potential left; that, and the shortening days and longer nights.

[danm]

2 hours ago, Stabilo19 said:

 BBC and MO both went for 29 for London and parts of the SE in their graphics, and then mentioned high likelihood of 30 degrees in broadcasts. 

 

Don’t get me wrong, I want heat as much as the next person but I just thought it’s a bit misleading to say the models underdone temps as it suggests the following days will be hotter than forecast. 

It got to 28c in London. Hardly far off the 29c forecast.

Edited July 22, 2019 by danm

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 hours ago, Thundershine said:

Despite my fears, today has been just fine. Reached 26.9°C but with a strong breeze keeping it comfortable. Also the sun is far weaker here than in France two weeks ago!

Sun is currently about as intense as it is in mid May, so it's losing its potency every day now.

August sun especially doesn't feel so bad, a lot more mellow than around the solstice.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 degrees forecast for Saturday, dreading it,was warmer in Feb,

 

[Stabilo19]

6 hours ago, danm said:

He’s being slightly dramatic. The cloud lifted by midday and we got to 27c-28c in London. 

We must have been in two different Londons then because it was still fairly cloudy until 2:30-3pm for me.

 

Much better start to the day today however. Bring on the 30s!

Edited July 23, 2019 by Stabilo19

[kold weather]

Just for reference, max temperature was 30.5 yesterday, so a touch higher than any model expected for yesterday, though ARPEGE was indeed in the right ballpark for most.

A cooler start today but now we really start to advect in hotter air and it's much sunnier generally in the SE.

Met office expect 34, hard to disagree.

[mb018538]

47 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just for reference, max temperature was 30.5 yesterday, so a touch higher than any model expected for yesterday, though ARPEGE was indeed in the right ballpark for most.

A cooler start today but now we really start to advect in hotter air and it's much sunnier generally in the SE.

Met office expect 34, hard to disagree.

Yep - 30.5c at Cavendish in Suffolk. Surely we will hit 33/34c today...

[Porto]

Norwich already at 23c at 8am, an hour ahead of schedule.

[Summer Sun]

 

[kold weather]

Looks like Thursdays 850hpa temps will be a solid 1-2c higher than they were on 10th August 2003, 20+ looks more widespread as well.

So that again would give a ballpark Max of 39-40c in theory.