Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[northwestsnow]

GFS looks much better longer term at day 10 with the azores high nudging back in..

Purely academic of course

[Scorcher]

Yes it could be argued that this latest GFS run is the best for some time overall...okay it might not be quite as hot as the 06z was but there is no sign of things turning a lot cooler on this run at all- things become hot for a time but then stay warm/very warm right into next weekend. This is a dream run compared to what we've had for much of June so far.

[knocker]

A quick glance at the energy flows next week. A bit academic at this stage but they will dictate the complexities of the trough/ridge(s) scenario

Edited June 19, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Is it just me who thinks the Gem 12z looks warmer, more humid and unstable next week than the 0z..could it be coming on-board?..same applies to ukmo.

Edited June 19, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Aye, 12Z best run so far...Still warm and sunny right at the very end of June.

 

[ChezWeather]

Good to see that we are plume chasing in here! What are everyone's thoughts on the mid term prospects, i.e heading into July?!

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean becomes increasingly hot and humid from the south next week, especially later next week, what a scorcher further south..very plumey with thunderstorms and hot sunshine galore, very continental.. sensational charts actually considering the utter cack we have had so far this summer!!..upgrade!! 

Edited June 19, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Man With Beard]

GFS op is very much on the "cool" side after Wednesday. Must check out that purple run! 

and here it is

Hottest model output ever? 

Edited June 19, 2019 by Man With Beard

[Derecho]

Good afternoon, the 12z GFS is another warm one and the ensembles show it still has good backing. A high number of plumes (850s over 15C) showing although there is a few which have less hot uppers. How hot it gets next week clearly depends on how low pressure to our SW behaves and that is difficult to model.

The hottest run of the lot is the OP for next Tuesday. Plenty of runs that back it but fine details still to resolve.

Globally we can see a switch to heat over western Europe and colder air to our east. That's more like it!

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS op is very much on the "cool" side after Wednesday. Must check out that purple run! 

 

and here it is

Hottest model output ever? 

40c run!

[Methuselah]

Here're the GEFS 12Z ensembles: Eight straight 25C+ days!

  

  

I notice the signal, for a renewed Greenland block, has all but disappeared!

[Downpour]

On 12/06/2019 at 21:56, ANYWEATHER said:

• Good Evening! Total rubbish  about a se/nw theme to our weather, .... next week 

Extraordinary runs coming forward in the last 24 hours. 

[SMU]

It should be no surprise that as the background signal of climate change instigating anomalous extreme continental heat in the summer combined with a very slow jet ( punctuated by a record negative zonal mean at the moment ) all point to the UK being subjected to possible events at both ends of the spectrum -

The - NAO which can support either scenario has been potent enough to loop the jet all the back over the uk causing that persistent rain last Monday -

Perfectly illustrated below with about a flow thats meridional as possible for summer

Now that pattern is similar this week with the exception being thats the trough anchors further west -

The extreme heat thats pluming North on the SE side of the jet with take a nibble at the UK - If we sustain the flow long enough then 24c uppers could be observed which translates to about 40c at the surface ( remember that heat source is probably 2-4c hotter than Normal )

 

So given the global conditions I would say the UK record has a higher than average chance of being breeched but a good few sustained days from the SSE is what we need.

40C could come close.....

[Djdazzle]

Always good to see @Steve Murr in summer!

ECM rolling out . . .

Edited June 19, 2019 by Djdazzle

[Mike Poole]

Early take on ECM at T96, here compared with UKMO and GFS at same time:

Fine margins but ECM further west with the low and closer to cutting it off than UKMO, similar to GFS.

Fascinating  model watching to come in the run up to this possible scenario, should be fun!

[A.J]

12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Always good to see @Steve Murr in summer!

ECM rolling out . . .

when I see SM posting in the summer, I'm expecting a rogue chart showing the -20c isotherm slap bang over the country with a raging frigid NE'erly 

[SMU]

1 minute ago, A.J said:

when I see SM posting in the summer, I'm expecting a rogue chart showing the -20c isotherm slap bang over the country with a raging frigid NE'erly 

ECM 144 not quite

the +20c is knocking on the door!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144:

Heat pump in place and +20s close to the SE but it's quite a broad plume of heat on this one, well it is midsummer I suppose!  

[northwestsnow]

EC 144 gets the boooooooommmm..

Very warm for much of the country!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM primed to bring some serious heat, especially to the SE Corner... Plumetastic. 

200w.webp

[Cheshire Freeze]

Thundery plume moving N...look at the slackness over Spain and France

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, certainly looks summery, and will feel like nearly Wimbledon at last, instead of nearly hallowe'en

[mb018538]

ECM.....you beauty. Just ukmo not playing ball!

[Frosty.]

It looks like temperatures will rocket next week, could be using the words sizzle, scorcher..flaming June looking at the Ecm 12z so far!!..damn it, spoke to soon..cools down a bit next thursday!!

Edited June 19, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ECM.....you beauty. Just ukmo not playing ball!

UKMO still gets into the mid 20s for the usual hot spots and with sunshine you could add 2c to 4c on that for the afternoon peak