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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Worth noting that by day 7, the ECM has us in a very muggy TM airmass

image.thumb.png.6f32dcfe2327d198c1162518dc3bb3b6.png

Plenty of moisture knocking about

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted

No dramas folks, some heat on the way... In places it could be hot... It could be very hot! 

ECM0-168 (1).gif

p4179_v_v8_aa.jpg

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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Posted (edited)

There could be a lot of flash flooding next week from torrential thunderstorms..hmmm do we really want that?

ECMOPEU12_120_2.png

ECMOPEU12_144_2.png

ECMOPEU12_168_2.png

ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

ECMOPEU12_216_2.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

Just musing over a forecast sounding in Germany. The dry air subsides and warms adiabatically in an anticyclone and thus impacts the 850mb temp which is in the 26C range, But the air diverges in the boundary layer and the surface temp is much the same.

sounding.thumb.png.70f36d7a13531146061db32978c5bb72.png

Edited by knocker
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ECM loses the plot at the end but that’s all irrelevant now anyway. All eyes on day 4-7 and how that low develops.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Jon Snow said:

There could be a lot of flooding next week from torrential thunderstorms..hmmm do we really want that?

Yes, I want the thunderstorms. I'm actively drooling at the thought. 

A very wet day 9 chart from the ECM tonight

image.thumb.png.cfdd95cb9e72524279f8f06feb79ec99.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

There could be a lot of flash flooding next week from torrential thunderstorms..hmmm do we really want that?

Well, at least it'll help cool the tarmac: images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRJfE_gdsAk1TleE4N9Y8-:oldgrin:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Ideally thunderstorms at night and hot sunny days..Anyway this doesn't look like a typical 1 day plume going by the GEFS 12z mean..it could last all next week!!

Edited by Jon Snow
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted

Let's try not to stress to much about day 9 folks.... Let's get some heat in and savour the moment first... Its been a long time coming... This could be the 1st of many hot plumes this summer... We maybe growing oranges come the end of it... Even a vineyard or 2.. Oh and even the boys from NASA..... they say... Yessssssssss... 

geos-1-144.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
On 16/06/2019 at 21:12, Jon Snow said:

we could be entering a period of repeat thundery plumes from the continent!

Looking at the models today..we could indeed!

Edited by Jon Snow
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

Well there’s not many times a model has max temps of 27-29c over the England like GFS 12z next Tuesday/Wednesday and they’re cool outliers......it’s possible I’ll never say that again lol.....

ECM looks good out to D7, seems to have rekindled its love for aggressive Greeny height building again, hopefully an outlier.

First few days of Glasto could be incredibly interesting, I was there in 2005 when we had 30c for a couple of days followed by one of strongest storms I’ve seen in this country, fortunately my tent was on higher ground and wasn’t flooded. 

The heat ironically with its potential for multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms could seal June’s fate as the wettest June on record...

 

Edited by Alderc
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Well isn't this a welcome sight? npsh500.240.png:yahoo:

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted (edited)

Very intriguing where all this is leading to.  

If we take ECM T144 as a possibility, it is by no means guaranteed:

image.thumb.jpg.f557e0f11572d02ea7207768a8172652.jpg

Then what next, I don't think we can have any idea.  The model veriification statistics suggest they are poorer in summer than winter (in the NH anyway, SH there's no discernible difference), here ECM and GFS:

image.thumb.jpg.2442733ee48ff4d705c55b17b43c4ee0.jpg

And we have a very meridional jet stream to boot which isn't going to improve model reliability, I would suggest.  So it seems some kind of plume event is going to happen, may be watered down, or not, can't tell yet, what we absolutely cannot be certain of is what will happen after.  

A thought though, SSTs have been consistently in favour of high pressure at or over the east of the UK (as mentioned consistently in UKMO contingency planners updates),  but they haven't had the chance to come into play so far given the Greenland blocking, a big waft of heat (technical language here) from a plume, might help align the atmosphere with the seas and ignite the hot and explosive thundery summer I have consistently said on here that I rate as the likeliest outcome.  Whichever way it goes, fascinating model watching over the next week or so.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
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Posted

Mon/Tue/Wed temps/Cape next week. Years since I've seen charts like this, Interesting times ahead.

1831462921_viewimage(17).thumb.png.e8322cccd8649720f2acb71fff76509d.png2076869014_viewimage(18).thumb.png.7c6d1b2f9784b1d6dd82d920d8579dbe.png1355250017_viewimage(19).thumb.png.b558757a54e92013710e72e652e452d3.png483093168_viewimage(20).thumb.png.7cd5e3cc4f6c05c63e6a10e176536d26.png511406277_viewimage(21).thumb.png.d800160fb647a625f024c6da71af53db.png875452529_viewimage(22).thumb.png.c76bb5545747993ccea60f286dd6217a.png

 

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Winter is coming!

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Euro and GFS operational slightly different to last night in that the heat gets removed on Thursday rather than Friday.

Pattern of events right now is..

Monday sees a warm front moving north.

Tuesday and wednesday see a potent hot spell.

Thursday sees a front moving east.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM mean better than the op after 168, but the 240 mean isn’t that helpful and clearly indicates a big spread in the ensembles.

I think at least southern / southeast england is going to sizzle for much of next week but probably more average conditions further n / nw which isn't good news for scotland..as usual!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM mean better than the op after 168, but the 240 mean isn’t that helpful and clearly indicates a big spread in the ensembles.

Yes, agree, the ECM mean and operational look very close at T144, all after that subject to considerable uncertainty, here ensemble mean first

image.thumb.jpg.858e0642d18476ec66c1e19386fd7d19.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.564e187e73690d69a4671d2c23599e85.jpg

At this point ECM ensembles look more together than all the other operational runs!  Could be ECM groupthink I guess! On the other hand it could be ECM has it nailed!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM mean better than the op after 168, but the 240 mean isn’t that helpful and clearly indicates a big spread in the ensembles.

ECM mean is as indicative as you are going to get at day 10...and that indication right now is Atlantic heights and Scandi trough

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro and GFS operational slightly different to last night in that the heat gets removed on Thursday rather than Friday.

Pattern of events right now is..

Monday sees a warm front moving north.

Tuesday and wednesday see a potent hot spell.

Thursday sees a front moving east.

that is a normal timed plume, 3 summers ago wasn't it that plumes arrived on a Tues, and always turned fresher from the west on a Thurs

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

that is a normal timed plume, 3 summers ago wasn't it that plumes arrived on a Tues, and always turned fresher from the west on a Thurs

I really hope scotland joins in the very warm weather, some models show it reaching further north, some don't..they deserve some luck for gawd sake!

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Good Evening Everyone....! Next week's plume ??? Not sure that will happen , everything will be shunted east.....just as usual

Quote

 

 

h850t850eu-14.png

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