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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Good synoptics coming out again this evening and why not

the cpc seems to think so,here are the 6-10 and 8-14 day anomaly's,we just need that hp cell to migrate more east then we could look at another plume scenario

610day_03.thumb.gif.03a1f01b3e5dc007962375c29cb2bbfc.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.6038fdc3c154ce384ba44e5410e0dfaa.gif

we have the heat to look forward to at the end of the week and into the weekend then a blip to start the new working week then signs that things look set to warm up again,ok,not the heat that we will feel come the end of the week but pleasant enough

de-built ecm ens and gfs ens show this.

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.3e9cd815a5fc7d3aab49bc8b09179125.pngt850South_Yorkshire.thumb.png.6a75b3be2510beb233612b5a54183bc0.png

P.S. sorry for the late post,i have been decorating,cheers.

 

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Guest

Posted
Posted

Well today and tomorrow looks incredibly disappointing either due to cloud or wind, some speculation that northern coast of Cornwall / Devon could see a Bora type wind tomorrow with gusts over 60mph coming down from the moors. What looked like a lengthy spell of weather has once again turned into a one day south east special on Saturday. 

Looking further ahead gfs not so keen this morning a big push from the Azores high and has the possibility of low pressure coming down the North Sea, I maintain next week will be cool overall. 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well today and tomorrow looks incredibly disappointing either due to cloud or wind, some speculation that northern coast of Cornwall / Devon could see a Bora type wind tomorrow with gusts over 60mph coming down from the moors. What looked like a lengthy spell of weather has once again turned into a one day south east special on Saturday. 

Looking further ahead gfs not so keen this morning a big push from the Azores high and has the possibility of low pressure coming down the North Sea, I maintain next week will be cool overall. 

Let's hope we see the Azores HP (aka convection killer) modelled with less influence in subsequent modelling. The GFS has lessened its influence a bit this morning.

image.thumb.png.afe8feed61dd777479b7947f415be27e.png

Edited by CreweCold
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Guest

Posted
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

Let's hope we see the Azores HP (aka convection killer) modelled with less influence in subsequent modelling. The GFS has lessened its influence a bit this morning.

I get what you’re saying but we’ve hardly had any sun and the last thing we need is to end up with a low stuck in the north sea....

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
31 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Let's hope we see the Azores HP (aka convection killer) modelled with less influence in subsequent modelling. The GFS has lessened its influence a bit this morning.

image.thumb.png.afe8feed61dd777479b7947f415be27e.png

Yes, its starting to gain latitude, we need it to ridge properly into GL, its hard at this time of year to get a trough to drop properly to the East of us but a good effort there.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, its starting to gain latitude, we need it to ridge properly into GL, its hard at this time of year to get a trough to drop properly to the East of us but a good effort there.

You'll like the current averaged CFS for December Feb...

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You'll like the current averaged CFS for December Feb...

image.thumb.png.db9693241d9b0dbe85f2163efdb98bb5.png

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted
52 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Let's hope we see the Azores HP (aka convection killer) modelled with less influence in subsequent modelling. The GFS has lessened its influence a bit this morning.

image.thumb.png.afe8feed61dd777479b7947f415be27e.png

Very few people on here will be in agreement with you on this. The last thing we want is more cloud and rain after the first half of June. I'm quite happy to have some benign conditions forecast next week even if it won't be overly warm at first.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Very few people on here will be in agreement with you on this. The last thing we want is more cloud and rain after the first half of June. I'm quite happy to have some benign conditions forecast next week even if it won't be overly warm at first.

I'm not looking for agreement though.

I was all for the modelling of a very hot spell that we saw last week for this current week. That's because there was plenty of instability forecast- unfortunately that evaporated (if you'll excuse the pun). After last year, I'd have to be floating down the high street in a boat for me to be rejoicing at a displaced Azores HP ridging across us for any length of time.

Edited by CreweCold
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The GEFS 0z mean still indicates increasing azores high / ridge influence next week onwards, at least for southern uk. Looking through the members there are some very summery ones but also some that are, shall we say, less summery!

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The GEFS 0z mean still indicates increasing azores high / ridge influence next week onwards, at least for southern uk. Looking through the members there are some very summery ones but also some that are, shall we say, less summery!

I think it’s a precarious situation ECM has high pressure ridging in but much less aggressively this morning. 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

I assume that as indicated by some of the telecon peeps over the past week or so, there is little sign that upstream/ Pacific setup will allow for any upper ridging to actually gain traction for any length of time. Again, the ridges look to be mobile as we head forward. That might make the mean look promising but will allow for a more changeable set up in real time. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I think it’s a precarious situation ECM has high pressure ridging in but much less aggressively this morning. 

You're right, compared to yesterday it's not as good, especially longer term.

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I assume that as indicated by some of the telecon peeps over the past week or so, there is little sign that upstream/ Pacific setup will allow for any upper ridging to actually gain traction for any length of time. Again, the ridges look to be mobile as we head forward. That might make the mean look promising but will allow for a more changeable set up in real time. 

Yes the back end of this mornings ECM looks pretty poor, with cool conditions becoming more likely. The 10c 850 isotherm is completely absent from our shores beyond this weekend.

Personally I really don’t like the mean charts, large divergence can give misleadingly good charts upon first sight.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Hmmm not as high pressure dominated in the longer term this morning!!!although it way better than rubbish we have endured over the last 4 weeks or so!!so far this week has been absolutely horrendous here in the midlands!!no sun yesterday and today has started just as bad!!feels more like autumn lol!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
2 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Hilarious 2M temps next few days for 850's being forecast, can see it not being far off either, one day hot spell on Saturday it looks to me, pretty amusing after all the ramping in here.

You can't blame the ramping, there's been +24 T850's but what could have been an epic week of summery weather is going to fall well short of expectations with just saturday being hot further s / se..pathetic.

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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted
6 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

You can't blame the ramping, there's been +24 T850's but what could have been an epic week of summery weather is going to fall well short of expectations with just saturday being hot further s / se..pathetic.

Rarely post here in the Summer,but for me compared to what was modeled over the weekend (hardly in the FI we talk of in the winter,but in the so called 'reliable' timeframe) what has been our reality ( and I am on the Sussex coast) this week I would compare with a bitter freeze and promised snowfall becoming a +5c and some sleet in January!

A fresh breeze,overcast,showers drifting up from the channel and 19c vs the 30c+ predictions of blue skies interspersed with violent thunderstorms.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

GFS 00z looks a cool outlier in the medium timeframe this morning, will be interesting to see where EC det sits in its suite- its not a bad run by any means, although in the interests of balance it has trended away from an extended stable anticyclone.

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

This morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles look a tad less convincing than yesterday's did, with the T850s and SLP graphs suggesting a fair amount of Shannon entropy, post July 5th. More 'choices' than a freshly-stocked Tesco?:shok:

t850London.png  t2mLondon.png

 

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

Could the GFS be starting to pick up on upstream teleconnective developments?images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQsrBYN2_TtW_GRsaWsJnb

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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Thought I had entered the moaning thread for a minute there...nice to see everyone so cheery this morning! 

All this talk of a one day hot event for just the Southeast on Saturday is nonsense - temperatures are expected to reach the mid to high 20’s in places like Glasgow, Aviemore and Leeds for example on either Thursday, Friday or Saturday. (couple of those days probably)

ADB1E02A-0E3A-433B-9702-03994CAA9256.thumb.png.077341aa3ac4a47ad6cfd824367e5922.pngB73877B4-C51A-49D2-9044-5BB9071FF719.thumb.png.dcd49b21c6d5146f7c11d199f899702f.png

96817BA1-E96D-44E8-A3BC-E218D03FFFB0.thumb.png.415dc7a57641109ace0975342fcfbcaf.png

Add a couple of degrees to those GFS charts as I’m pretty sure it’s undercooking the temperatures slightly.

I am really looking forward to three days of hot and sunny weather here! It’s been a long time coming! Bring it on!!!! 

Plus we have the luxury of July and August to perhaps bring more hot and sunny weather for the UK and Ireland - it is only June 26th after all. ☀️

Have fun in the sun everyone - it’s what most of us on this thread have been waiting for!  

Have a good day!

Edited by Mr Frost
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

As i suspected, EC det looks out of kilter with the mean, majority of EC members sticking with the dry settled and warm script..

Of course det maybe onto something but as it stands, an excellent outlook for the UK.

day 8 mean

image.thumb.png.5c3d40e92c7d4af95bacd1f8862b6fd7.png

Lovely ..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I think that the ECMWF NH progression also has the Azores HP a wee bit more inclined to stay out west than on yesterday's run?

T+24:npsh500.024.png T+144:npsh500.144.png

T+240:npsh500.240.png

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
32 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

You can't blame the ramping, there's been +24 T850's but what could have been an epic week of summery weather is going to fall well short of expectations with just saturday being hot further s / se..pathetic.

It’s been a totally rubbish plume. Extremely poor surface conditions for such a setup. Temperatures way, way, way below where we’d normally expect them to be in such a setup, a lot of cloud and rain, and storms largely a bust.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

image.thumb.png.89d0b3b47ceb631ca790b10cec8764fe.png

GEM showing High pressure firmly in control by day 10 ...

I'm going to stick my neck out and say a couple of rogue Operational's have skewed the outlook this morning.

Certainly the GEFS 00z suite looks very dry, esp in the south, with hardly a sniff of rain to be seen on the graph.

Time will tell if these operational's have picked out a different evolution of course..

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