Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[northwestsnow]

Another very dry and at times pleasant GFS6z with very respectable surface conditions for summer lovers right through towards mid July-

 

[weirpig]

17 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The GFS and ICON 6z probably agreeing with you there Alderc. 

The Euro 4  has them even lower  with some areas in single digits 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Another very dry and at times pleasant GFS6z with very respectable surface conditions for summer lovers right through towards mid July-

 

Looking good NWS... I've just had a look at the ensembles out to day 8 and only 4 of the 20 runs do not have high pressure in control... So we are looking at say an 80% chance of settled Conditions at this stage mate.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Looking good NWS... I've just had a look at the ensembles out to day 8 and only 4 of the 20 runs do not have high pressure in control... So we are looking at say an 80% chance of settled Conditions at this stage mate.

Agreed, the 6z mean looks more settled than the 0z with a much better chance of high pressure building in, more stable than the earlier run.

Edited June 26, 2019 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Looking good NWS... I've just had a look at the ensembles out to day 8 and only 4 of the 20 runs do not have high pressure in control... So we are looking at say an 80% chance of settled Conditions at this stage mate.

At this stage yes, hopefully we will see a EC 12z det more aligned to the mean this evening.

Hard to complain with the outlook after the poor may and june we have experienced ..

[Frosty.]

The Gem 0z ends on a High notE..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

19 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The Gem 0z ends on a High notE..

Very nice Karl... Here is a look at the mean.... Spiffing wouldn't you say dear sir..

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

This morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles look a tad less convincing than yesterday's did, with the T850s and SLP graphs suggesting a fair amount of Shannon entropy, post July 5th. More 'choices' than a freshly-stocked Tesco?

  

 

  

Could the GFS be starting to pick up on upstream teleconnective developments?

Interesting that the operational is at tewarm/high pressure end of the range for most of the run.

[Methuselah]

GEFS ensembles are quite encouraging, today...And, post the upcoming 'sweatygate scandal', both 850 and 2m temps never fall too low, and precipitation disnea look like being a problem:

  

  

So let's just hope that nowt sinister lurks in the woodshed...?

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational i'm seeing lots of ridging / high pressure next week and beyond..predominantly settled and pleasantly warm then but with some cooler less settled interludes. As for this weekend, not seeing a thundery breakdown, only a band of showery rain pushing east across northern uk followed by sunshine and showers, the s / se mainly dry.

Edited June 26, 2019 by Jon Snow

[StormChaseUK]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational i'm seeing lots of ridging / high pressure next week and beyond..predominantly settled and pleasantly warm then but with some cooler less settled interludes. As for this weekend, not seeing a thundery breakdown, only a band of showery rain pushing east across northern uk followed by sunshine and showers, the s / se mainly dry.

The breakdown of weather after this week will actually be warmer, so it's actually a breakup to warmer conditions.  from 13c TO 20c will be a nice change!

[danm]

28 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

The breakdown of weather after this week will actually be warmer, so it's actually a breakup to warmer conditions.  from 13c TO 20c will be a nice change!

Hmm. Temperatures going from 32c to 24c in London. Sounds like more of a “breakdown” to cooler weather from where I’m sitting, although granted any heat is short lived.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Icon brings the SE bake on Saturday... 28c being shown up..... Nahhhhhh, let's slam a few degrees on that total.... 

[shaky]

11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Icon brings the SE bake on Saturday... 28c being shown up..... Nahhhhhh, let's slam a few degrees on that total.... 

Can you post the 850 chart please!!!been sliming down the width of the 20 degree 850s!!!wana see if its actually continued that theme!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Can you post the 850 chart please!!!been sliming down the width of the 20 degree 850s!!!wana see if its actually continued that theme!

 

How's this shaky...

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

How's this shaky...

Beautiful and has the western extent much further west  for saturday than the earlier gfs run showed!!unless the latest 12 run has backed it west slightly aswell?

[Djdazzle]

That will give a higher chance of a very high Max on Sat. I’d be amazed if 35C wasn’t achieved. Even the auto apps have a few 33Cs in the SE for Sat now.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, shaky said:

Beautiful and has the western extent much further west  for saturday than the earlier gfs run showed!!unless the latest 12 run has backed it west slightly aswell?

The old GFS as it slightly further East... The FV3 is only just rolling out so not sure if that one's going to differ much

And the bottom chart is ukmo at 48hrs

UKMO at 72hrs...the heat a little further East has well... Not a done deal if you ask me. Could be much further West or East tbh. 

Edited June 26, 2019 by Mattwolves

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 144-

Whats that coming over the hill, its the Azores high

I can see a settled number of days after 144- angle of 'attack' from the high looks good ..

 

 

Edited June 26, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Derecho]

7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

That will give a higher chance of a very high Max on Sat. I’d be amazed if 35C wasn’t achieved. Even the auto apps have a few 33Cs in the SE for Sat now.

On the subject of maxima, where the sun came out for a prolonged period of time today, maxima was generally 3-5C higher then forecast by Sundays 18z run. Where low cloud persisted temperatures were actually a bit lower.

 

Saying that I don't think we will see notable maxima tomorrow, knocker was right. I think sunny areas that are sheltered from the strong winds may get into the upper 20s. I do think we have an outside shot of beating some June records on saturday.

Edited June 26, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[MATTWOLVES 3]

A look at the models at day 6...clearly high pressure taking control... 

UKMO

GFS

FV3

ICON

GEM

[northwestsnow]

Judging by the GFS/UKMO i think i would assume there will be little or no rain for many, esp the SE, over the coming 10 days minimum..

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Judging by the GFS/UKMO i think i would assume there will be little or no rain for many, esp the SE, over the coming 10 days minimum..

Bad news for some of us given that, despite the fact that we've had a wet June, over the course of the last 12 months we're still around 130mm below normal (at the end of My the region averaged 173mm below normal for the 12 month period).  Of course, some areas, Lincolnshire in particular, could do with a dry period, but much of East Anglia is still surprisingly dry as the rain earlier this month rapidly became absorbed by the very dry subsoil.  At least the outputs that have been posted here aren't showing strong winds which would dry things out even more rapidly than a warm but still period.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Bad news for some of us given that, despite the fact that we've had a wet June, over the course of the last 12 months we're still around 130mm below normal (at the end of My the region averaged 173mm below normal for the 12 month period).  Of course, some areas, Lincolnshire in particular, could do with a dry period, but much of East Anglia is still surprisingly dry as the rain earlier this month rapidly became absorbed by the very dry subsoil.  At least the outputs that have been posted here aren't showing strong winds which would dry things out even more rapidly than a warm but still period.

Yes, as always, not everyone will be pleased- all looks very benign as you say, any rainfall likely restricted, in general to the far NW - 

Don't think the temps will be any great shakes , dry i think, is the operative word, perhaps becoming warmer later on.

[northwestsnow]

Well GFS trying to turn into a jedi master by dodging pretty much any rainfall for the next 2 weeks!!

That would be the exact opposite of the 1st half of June!

A quite incredible GFS operational, virtually zero rainfall across the SE out to 384 hours.

Edited June 26, 2019 by northwestsnow