Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[feb1991blizzard]

One thing i am liking about this run, although still a long way from the UK, good to see that Jan 1987 type airmass approaching Scandinavia and getting nearer.

[bluearmy]

29 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Another very interesting zonal winds forecast cant be ignored either. The thing that's most intriguing is it looks like a reversal could occur in the nearer term! Even the GFS ensembles seem to be dropping considerably. Fingers crossed for a SSW!

It does ?  If you mean a reversal to the current increase to near record levels then I guess that bound to happen but if you mean an actual reversal to negative zonal flow then that’s not on the agenda at all yet .....

[Jordan S]

Outputs this evening for middle of next week between the Ukmo GFS Gem and Ecm are pretty similar shows a ridge of high pressure arching to the North of us or atleast trying to anyway. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. What that means for us at that time is very wet conditions.

Ukmo..

Ecmwf.. 

GFS.. 

Gem..

Edited November 8, 2019 by jordan smith

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, to be honest I wasn't that interested in the UK cold prospects from this (see earlier post) but what I did want to continue to see was this at T228 on the pub run:

Another dis-membered (!) vortex, as long as we keep seeing this we are in the game without having to rely on a SSW.

It does to some extent match the cpc day 6-10 and 8-14 with a big hp cell east of Greenland stretching to Scandinavia and Siberia.

 

[Ali1977]

Get rid of that red and it would be game on for a feed all the way from Eastern Russia 

Edited November 8, 2019 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

Lots of settled frosty pea souper weather on offer from GFS 18z..

Fingers crossed..

[feb1991blizzard]

Some GEFS members getting closer to proper cold.

[Geordiesnow]

3 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Looks like that pesky area of HP near Moscow scuppering it, forcing its way north and blocking any cold feed possibilities. I keep hoping opportunities for this to develop into a decent easterly but I’m defo convinced that ship has sailed Now, so looking for what FI holds in ways of other chances. 

It's not uncommon though at this time of year whilst we are in the polar air, a warm ridge develops over Western Russia hence I much rather see more in the way of northerlies at this time of year for cold weather. 

As it happens the trend for a northerly is increasing(although more runs are needed in respect how much of an Atlantic ridge we will see). That said, the air is still not overly cold for much snow prospects but maybe the dreaded patience is needed. 

[Jordan S]

The GFS output for next Wednesday is very interesting but its eye candy so very unlikely to verify like that.. low pressure moving in the middle of next week bringing heavy rain to many areas particularly the south but shows the centre of circulation moving slowly across southern areas with the rain becoming quite heavy snow for a time then eventually back to rain as milder air comes in from the east.. one thing that it is showing is another very wet period. Its the most wintry scenario for the south and no other model shows it like that. They all show a very wet midweek period though albeit details are different but it's 5 days away so what you would expect. 

Back to the short term and looking like a very wet day for Wales and parts of the west and south Midlands and southern England with hill snow in places particularly for Wales with that frontal system pushing slowly eastwards then basically grinding to a halt with a centre of circulation developing over the south helping to keep the rainfall intensity going for most of tonight accumulations of 15-30mm being shown in a few locations in the south by the time this clears probably before dawn tomorrow morning.

Icon.. 

Chilly and wet sums things up for next week.. At times.

Edited November 9, 2019 by jordan smith

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 UK surface chart

A frosty start in many areas this morning accompanied by fog in east Wales and central southern England but heavy rain from the approaching occlusion is already into N. Ireland and about to reach the south west. This will track east > north east through the day, with snow over the high ground in north Wales, and pivot somewhat as it goes thus lingering  over the eastern parts of N. Ireland. Fortunately it also means the rain should not reach the areas already badly affected by flooding.Showers following on behind in the south west. A cold and thoroughly miserable day under the rain.

The front will fragment and drift south overnight so still some patchy rain with some snow on the high ground around whilst further north clear skies and a morning frost with the odd fog patch

The cloud and rain will clear the south coast tomorrow leaving, apart from the odd shower along the north east coast, generally a dry and sunny day but by dusk rain from the next frontal system, associated with a deep low near the tip of Greenland, is encroaching the far west of N. Ireland

Over Sunday night and through Monday the Greenland trough moves east courtesy of a very strong westerly jet which hits the buffers of the eastern block which facilitates the movement of the UK trough south east. Whilst this is going on the occlusion mentioned above crosses the country accompanied by a belt of rain followed by heavy showers

The alignment of the upper troughs becomes quite complex on Tuesday and the upshot of all of this is a surface low and occlusion over northern Scotland with the country in a brisk north westerly wind resulting in frequent showers in western regions

By Wednesday mid Atlantic amplification of the subtropical high, as discussed last evening, results in another system tracking south east as it hitches a ride on a very strong jet so another day of showers in the west, drier in the east, but more persistent rain encroaching the west by early evening.

 

 

[knocker]

How far east the rain, perhaps some snow over the high ground, gets on Wednesday is problematic because of developments near the left exit of the jet so probably best left here for the moment.

Edited November 9, 2019 by knocker

[Jordan S]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

How far east the rain, perhaps some snow o the high ground, gets on Wednesday is problematic because of developments near the left exit of the jet so probably best left here for the moment.

I was going to ask where you get them particular jet stream charts from but found them now.

Edited November 9, 2019 by jordan smith

[knocker]

To digress briefly and glance at the DT chart for midnight as seen on a couple of soundings in the NE

[Iceaxecrampon]

GFS 00z

T+126 forum meltdown  

 

 

 

[Seasonality]

16 hours ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Only have to look back at this time last year to realise it can all change in the blink of an eye.



As we all know that's not what transpired.

 

So you're saying charts at 200+ hours don't always verify!? Why did no one tell me this before?!

[knocker]

Little change from previous discussions vis the ext GEFS mean anomaly

[knocker]

The ecm take on next week

[ICE COLD]

Nice cold seasonal ECM 00z all the way to day 10 . 

And the GEFS are now trending back below average towards the end when yesterday’s were trending above average. Nice

[SLEETY]

Nice Siberian high at the end of the ECM run ,where the real cold air is!

[tinybill]

a very interesting week  comeing  up  it  looks  like plenty  of rain and possible snow for the south   with all the flooding  plus  the outlook  still looks very wet   loads to talk about!!

[shaky]

Another set of cold runs this morning!!current temp here is -1❄

[knocker]

Further emphasis on the Aleutian low/west N. America ridge from the ext EPS this morning with the vortex aligned northern Canada > NW. With troughs associated with the latter aligned to the south and south east still a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard but diverging in the eastern Atlantic courtesy of the east European ridge and the trough down west central Europe. Thus the UK virtually in a col with temps a tad below average

 

Edited November 9, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The front was through here and the tip of SW Wales around 0800. Note cold with extensive mist/fog in central regions

Edited November 9, 2019 by knocker

[carinthian]

Interesting winteroverview chart for the middle of next week, especially for much of Western Europe including a great swathe of the Alpine Regions. This mornings preliminary snow portal forecasting results show a top up total of 75cm in our location by this time next week. Currently we have 40 cm of thick rather heavy snow cover. The more accurate results from the fine mesh model are predicted about 24 hours prior to a snow event, so will have to wait for the day to day details on this forthcoming ( major snow event ) Obviously the day to day synoptic details can change , even with-in a small time scale of less than 102 hours. However, most main models showing a turbulent rather wintry picture for many , including The British Isles . Just for a bit of interest this morning a warm from is affecting parts of Southern Sweden and Finland and producing a amazing temp differential of 35C between the far south of the region and the far North. Will post some picture from the village later, where snow cover is now knee deep !

C

[Kentspur]

On the face of it the Icon 0z looks my personal fave. Am I right in suggesting it holds some wintry potential for some?