Novel Coronavirus – China

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I got the same thing wrt my anxiety meds. No way I'm stepping in a GP surgery at the moment. Will do without my meds.

Quite right, Carlsberg special brew works with anxiety, best sedative money can buy.

[feb1991blizzard]

One nagging fear in my head, that it gets so bad we end up with the moderators having to split this into regional threads like weather.

[ArHu3]

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It would quite right, but then prove it very contagious, it doesn't matter whether you have 1 million people die from  1 million cases or 1 million die from 7 billion cases, 1 million dead is 1 million dead.

If 1 million people were to die from corona that would be in the same range as the yearly flu epidemic, which no one really cares about 

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, matt111 said:

Just been told a relative of mine is in an isolation unit in Winchester being tested right now  

I wish your relative a full recovery, whether it is coronavirus or something else. 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Donegal said:

This aged well

 

Coronavirus. 

[feb1991blizzard]

29 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

If 1 million people were to die from corona that would be in the same range as the yearly flu epidemic, which no one really cares about 

Yes but is that people who choose not to have vaccination, there isn't a vaccination for this,

[Dami]

5 hours ago, matt111 said:

Just been told a relative of mine is in an isolation unit in Winchester being tested right now  

Hugs. Hope all is well.

[Weather-history]

People are bonkers. Local Tesco, pasta shelves are virtually empty, panic buying toilet rolls, yet aisle with boxes of tissues are full.....which do you think is going to be more useful when you have a disease that affects the lungs, breathing etc?

[Snipper]

8 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Think they are just trying to figure out what conditions it thrives in most? some sections from the report

"Notably, during the same time, COVID-19 failed to spread significantly to countries immediately south of China. The number of patients and reported deaths in Southeast Asia is much less when compared to more temperate regions noted above. Further analysis using 2-meter (2m) temperatures from 2020 rather than hPa temperatures yields similar results (Figure 2). In the months of January 2020 in Wuhan and February 2020 in the other affected, there is a striking similarity in the measures of average temperature (5-11oC) and relative humidity (RH, 47-79%) (Table 1). In addition to have similar average temperature, humidity, and latitude profiles, these locations also exhibit a commonality in that the timing of the outbreak coincides with a nadir in the yearly temperature cycle, and thus with relatively stable temperatures over a more than a one month period of time (Supplementary Figure 1). In addition, none of the affected cities have minimum temperatures going below 0 oC (Supplementary Figure 1).The association between temperature in the cities affected with COVID-19 deserves special attention. There is a similarity in the measures of average temperature (5-11oC) and RH (47-79%) in the affected cities and known laboratory conditions that are conducive to coronavirus survival (4oC and 20-80% RH).9 Temperature and humidity are also known factors in SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and influenza survival. 10 Furthermore, new outbreaks occurred during periods of prolonged time at these temperatures, perhaps pointing to increased risk of outbreaks with prolonged conditions in this range. Finally, the temperatures in these cities did not dip below 0oC, pointing to a potential minimum range, which could be due to avoidance of freeze-thaw cycles that could affect virus viability or other factors (at least one human coronaviruses tested is freeze-thaw resistant). 11 All of these point to a potential direct relation between temperature and SARS-CoV-2 environmental survival and spreading. This hypothesis can be tested in experimental conditions similar to work that has been done before,9 and with environmental sampling and testing from areas of ongoing infection. Given the temporal spread among areas with similar temperature and latitude, some predictions can tentatively be made about the potential community spread of COVID-19 in the coming weeks. Using 2019 temperature data for March and April, risk of community spread could be predicted to affect areas just north of the current areas at risk (Figure 3). These could include (from East to West) Manchuria, Central Asia, the Caucuses, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, the British Isles, the Northeastern and Midwestern United States, and British Columbia. However, this simplified analysis does not take into account the effect of warming temperatures. The marked drop in cases in Wuhan could well be linked to corresponding recent rising temperatures there (Table 1). In the coming 2 months, temperatures will rise dramatically across many areas in the Northern Hemisphere. However, areas to the north which develop temperature profiles that may now overlap the current areas at risk only transiently as they rapidly warm (with possible exception of areas such as City Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Cities with community spreading of COVID-19 Wuhan 18oC/44% 12 oC/56% 7 oC/74% 13 oC/66% Tokyo 17 oC/53% 11 oC/52% 9 oC/54% 10 oC/47% Qom 12 oC/52% 10 oC/58% 7 oC/59% 10 oC/47% Milan 11 oC/77% 8 oC/74% 7 oC/69% 11 oC/58% Daegu 11 oC/64% 5 oC/62% 4 oC/68% 5 oC/62% Seattle 9 oC/76% 6 oC/84% 6 oC/84% 7 oC/79% Mulhouse 7 oC/84% 6 oC/82% 6 oC/80% 8 oC/74% Glasgow 5 oC/87% 5 oC/89% 6 oC/86% 4 oC/84% Large cities tentatively predicted to be at risk in the coming weeks London 8 oC/78% 8 oC/80% 8 oC/80% 8 oC/70% Manchester 7 oC/82% 6 oC/83% 7 oC/83% 6 oC/73% Berlin 8 oC/81% 5 oC/80% 5 oC/81% 6 oC/75% Prague 7 oC/81% 4 oC/78% 3 oC/79% 6 oC/71% Hamburg 6 oC/89% 5 oC/86% 6 oC/88% 6 oC/83% Vancouver 8 oC/75% 6 oC/84% 5 oC/84% 5 oC/78% New York 8 oC/55% 4 oC/72% 4 oC/61% 5 oC/62% Warsaw 8 oC/76% 4 oC/78% 3 oC/78% 5 oC/72% Glasgow 5 oC/87% 5 oC/89% 6 oC/86% 4 oC/84% Kiev 6 oC/74% 4 oC/83% 1 oC/85% 3 oC/76% St. Louis 6 oC/71% 5 oC/78% 3 oC/77% 3 oC/73% Beijing 9 oC/33% 2 oC/43% 2 oC/41% 5 oC/45% Previously predicted city where COVID-19 failed to take hold Bangkok 31 oC/52% 30 oC/45% 32 oC/50% 32 oC/51% Table 1. November 2019 to February 2020 average temperature ( oC) and humidity (%) data from cities with community spreading of COVID-19 and those at potentially at risk. Temperature and humidity data obtained from www.worldweatheronline.com the Northwest United States and British Columbia, which can show prolonged cyclical nadirs) (Supplementary Figure 1). Furthermore, as the virus moves further north it will encounter sequentially less human population densities. The above factors, climate variables not considered or analyzed (cloud cover, maximum temperature, etc.), human factors not considered or analyzed (impact of epidemiologic interventions, concentrated outbreaks like cruise ships, travel, etc.), viral factors not considered or analyzed (mutation rate, pathogenesis, etc.), mean that although the current correlations with latitude and temperature seem strong, a direct causation has not been proven and predictions in the near term are speculative and have to be considered with extreme caution. Human coronaviruses (HCoV-229E, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63, and HCoV-OC43), which usually lead to common cold symptoms, have been shown to display strong winter seasonality between December and April, and are undetectable in summer months in temperate regions.12 Although it would be even more difficult to make a long-term prediction at this stage, it is tempting to expect COVID-19 to diminish considerably in affected areas (above the 30o N”) in the coming months. It could perhaps prevail at low levels in tropical regions similar to influenza and begin to rise again in late fall and winter in temperate regions in the upcoming year. One other possibility is that it will not be able to sustain itself in the summer in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere and disappear. Surveillance efforts Figure 3. World 1000hPa temperature map March 2019-April 2019. Color gradient indicates 1000hPa temperatures in degrees Celsius. Tentative areas at risk in the near-term include those following the light green bands. Image from Climate Reanalyzer (https://ClimateReanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA. in the tropics, as well as New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, and Chile between the months of June through September may be of value in determining establishment in the human population. Along these lines, an avenue for further research involves the use of integrated or coupled epidemiological-earth-human systems models, which can incorporate climate and weather processes and variables (e.g., dynamics of temperature, humidity) and their spatiotemporal changes, as well as simulate scenarios of human interactions (e.g., travel, transmission due to population density). Such models can assimilate data currently being collected to accelerate the improvements of model predictions on short time scales (i.e., daily to seasonal). This type of predictive approach would allow to explore questions such as what are population centers most at risk and for how long; where to intensify large scale surveillance and tighten control measures to prevent spreading; better understanding of limiting factors for virus spreading in the southern hemisphere; and making predictions for a 2021-2022 virus season. A better understanding of the cause of seasonality for coronaviruses and other respiratory viruses would undoubtedly aid in better treatments and/or prevention, and be useful in determining which areas need heightened surveillance"

That’s a long paragraph.

[DAVID SNOW]

11 hours ago, Azazel said:

Nobody is saying they had it. Please don’t put words in my mouth. 

Several people were saying they think they had the 'milder' strain.

I didn't mention you by name, thanks.

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

If 1 million people were to die from corona that would be in the same range as the yearly flu epidemic, which no one really cares about 

Who says nobody cares.  What did we have going on during the later part of last year. GET A FLU JAB!

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

People are bonkers. Local Tesco, pasta shelves are virtually empty, panic buying toilet rolls, yet aisle with boxes of tissues are full.....which do you think is going to be more useful when you have a disease that affects the lungs, breathing etc?

Yes i have noticed that some of the items missing are bizarre to say the least.

[Snipper]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes i have noticed that some of the items missing are bizarre to say the least.

I’m off to stock pile lettuces later. Wouldn’t want to be be without my salad in the months to come. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Snipper said:

I’m off to stock pile lettuces later. Wouldn’t want to be be without my salad in the months to come. 

Pointless - they will taste like vomit if you freeze them, if you dont they will taste like vomit after a few days.

[Zak M]

 

[matty40s]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Pointless - they will taste like vomit if you freeze them, if you dont they will taste like vomit after a few days.

I'm pretty sure the poster was joking.....

[saint]

25 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

People are bonkers. Local Tesco, pasta shelves are virtually empty, panic buying toilet rolls, yet aisle with boxes of tissues are full.....which do you think is going to be more useful when you have a disease that affects the lungs, breathing etc?

This country is losing its collective tiny mind. Our local Tesco had no toilet roll, pasta or flour yesterday, yet as you say boxes of tissues are untouched. 
 

I feel for retail staff. I know some people connected to another high street supermarket and they’re reporting customers kicking off at those working on the shop floor because there isn’t enough loo roll etc, or are going in to stores and attempting to buy seventy bottles of sanitiser and are reacting badly when they find out that’s not possible. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by saint

[mountain shadow]

With cases dropping in China and South Korea due to banning large crowds it's quite clear that COBRA need to ban large gatherings for the next few weeks.

[Snipper]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Pointless - they will taste like vomit if you freeze them, if you dont they will taste like vomit after a few days.

Sorry I have just realised it isn’t 1st April so my comment needed qualifying.. I was joking!

[Bristawl Si]

With the oil price plummeting and stocks in freefall, companies will really start to feel the heat.

Jobs will be lost. Worrying development.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

With the oil price plummeting and stocks in freefall, companies will really start to feel the heat.

Jobs will be lost. Worrying development.

We want oil prices low so the cost od driving and public transport lowers.

[summer blizzard]

Don't say that Feb or Greta and XR will have your head. They are already trying to cull the airline industry.

[Snipper]

6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

With the oil price plummeting and stocks in freefall, companies will really start to feel the heat.

Jobs will be lost. Worrying development.

So we might get 1p off a litre of petrol months down the line if other price drops are anything to go by. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Snipper

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

39 minutes ago, Snipper said:

That’s a long paragraph.

Was bad enough getting through that on PC, anyone on their phone may have ended up with RSI 

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

Don't say that Feb or Greta and XR will have your head. They are already trying to cull the airline industry.

With no real option for those who are seriously affected by it.