Novel Coronavirus – China

[Azazel]

6 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

not sure what is irresponsible..he is just trying to give some context around the whole thing..30 years ago this would hardly even be a news story..yet here we are with some people panicking like the end of the world is nigh..maybe if Bernie Saunders had tweeted this it would have been ok?

No I don't care about politics, it doesn't remotely interest me. What's irresponsible is comparing this thing to the flu. It has a higher rate of transmission, it's several magnitudes more lethal and it's a completely new pathogen that only willed its way into existence a few months ago.

Donald Trump's PR game is atrociously bad.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Azazel

[ArHu3]

16 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Oh and also, just to let you know, my two friends are back from Italy after arriving at Gatwick earlier this afternoon. Absolutely no screening or testing whatsoever, they just walked straight through.

It takes days for the test results to come back, what do you expect, that everyone gets quarantine?

[Skullzrulerz]

When are the official numbers out for Iran,Germany,France And Italy?

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

not sure what is irresponsible..he is just trying to give some context around the whole thing..30 years ago this would hardly even be a news story..yet here we are with some people panicking like the end of the world is nigh..maybe if Bernie Saunders had tweeted this it would have been ok?

Trump is indeed technically right, however what he is neglecting to mention is that its this PLUS flu, which is something most countries health services are not based upon and will make many struggle if things were to continue to ramp up. Flu doesn't just stop because Corona is out there.

Also, with the best of respect, given how strict the USA has been with testing upto VERY recently, clearly there is many times more than 546 offical cases out there, but you just weren't tested unless you hit very strict criteria. Not hard to have only 546 cases when you've only tested a couple of thousand at most!!

[booferking]

It's funny that people just shoot down people on here,   no chance you had coronavirus didn't start until 31st December because china & media says so lol take your head out of the sand.

One of my suppliers in china had 3/4 of there workforce off in early November because they were sick guess were majority of the workers came from yea mainland china.

So anybody that wants to write off that coronavirus started earlier beat on if you trust Chinese government for every word they say cause i sure don't and I'm dealing with them everyday. 

[snefnug]

4 minutes ago, swebby said:

Not sure.  A number of surgeries and hospitals were selected, presumably enough to give statistically relevant results, and regional comparisons.  Anyone turning up at one of those presenting flu like symptoms was to be tested.  If the virus has been present in the UK since November, it would now be widespread and would have to be showing up* in those tests as cases with no links to travel etc, but that does not appear to be the case.

*The only caveat that i can think of is, if it is so mild in symptoms, no one actually goes to a surgery.

Our local GP surgery and pharmacy have signs saying if you have flu like symptoms, stay at home, if they worsen call 911 just don’t come in here.

[Azazel]

Just now, ArHu3 said:

It takes days for the test results to come back, what do you expect, that everyone gets quarantine?

Personally I think flights too and from Italy should be grounded and they should've been days ago. We were in a unique position to observe the spread in mainland Europe and take proactive action, but we seem to be just letting things take their course.

I don't think it too outlandish that they should've been sent home to self isolate at least.

[Relativistic]

 

Just now, Azazel said:

No I don't care about politics, it doesn't remotely interest me. What's irresponsible is comparing this thing to the flu. It has a higher rate of transmission, it's several magnitudes more lethal and it's a completely new pathogen that only willed its way into existence a few months ago.

Questionable. South Korea, who by far have been doing the most testing (over a thousand per 1 million residents), currently have a mortality rate of 0.6%.

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, swebby said:

Unless it snows?

If only.

Today we have a super full moon, has been known to induce unusual behaviour.

What are you thinking regarding death rate now, I'm still hopeful it will be less than 0.5% (UK)?

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, Donegal said:

He's thick as shyt. Look at Milan. If I was an obese 70 something year old I would be taking it more seriously. 

Risk factors for complications are chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, kidney disease, cardiovascular disease and cancer 

[Azazel]

Just now, Relativistic said:

 

Questionable. South Korea, who by far have been doing the most testing (over a thousand per 1 million residents), currently have a mortality rate of 0.6%.

Isn't the flu CFR something like 0.01? 

Regardless, I get trying to calm people down, but this is simply reinforcing the "it's just the flu bro" crowd to be complacent.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

 

Questionable. South Korea, who by far have been doing the most testing (over a thousand per 1 million residents), currently have a mortality rate of 0.6%.

About the same as the Hong Kong outbreak of 1968-69 which eventually led to 1 million deaths world wide. Definitely seems the best guide we have thus far with regards to testing, though of course there is still time for that rate to go up as deaths carry on coming in.

Edited March 9, 2020 by kold weather

[Relativistic]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

Isn't the flu CFR something like 0.01? 

Regardless, I get trying to calm people down, but this is simply reinforcing the "it's just the flu bro" crowd to be complacent.

Figure I read was 0.1% for seasonal flu.

[Yarmy]

It's absolutely incredible that some still don't understand how exponential growth works. 

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

Another patient in the UK has died after contracting the coronavirus, the NHS has confirmed.

A Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust spokesperson said:

The Trust can confirm that a patient in their 70s being treated for underlying health conditions has died. The patient had tested positive for Covid-19.

The family has been informed and our condolences and our thoughts are with them at this difficult time.

We will not be commenting further and ask that everybody respects the family’s privacy.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Wiltshire_snow_lover

[Azazel]

1 minute ago, Relativistic said:

Figure I read was 0.1% for seasonal flu.

Fair enough. Fact is though flu has a partial vaccine at least and a lot of people will be vaccinated. Nobody is immune to this so unless there is some serious mitigation and quickly, it's going to burn through the population rapidly and kill thousands - probably hundreds of thousands.

[Summer Sun]

4th death in the UK and the first death in Germany

[Azazel]

So Europe as a whole is currently running a CFR of around 3 percent.

[Yarmy]

1 minute ago, Relativistic said:

Figure I read was 0.1% for seasonal flu.

Yes, but 1% of cases are severe enough to warrant hospitalisation. In China, that rate was 15-20%.

[ArHu3]

8 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Personally I think flights too and from Italy should be grounded and they should've been days ago. We were in a unique position to observe the spread in mainland Europe and take proactive action, but we seem to be just letting things take their course.

I don't think it too outlandish that they should've been sent home to self isolate at least.

Time to act was mid January, when the virus was restricted to China, it's too late now 

[swebby]

40 minutes ago, Joseph Hudson said:

Anyone want to guess why we not seeing  rises in the 100's yet 

Most of our cases still seem to be related to people returning from abroad. Community transmission still seems to be low.

Also the possibility that people have doused them selves in hand sanitiser and then cocooned themselves in toilet roll.

 

[Zak M]

 

[Azazel]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Time to act was mid January, when the virus was restricted to China, it's too late now 

Though I agree, that was the best time to act, I wouldn't say it's too late now, but the window is shrinking. They need to act fast and decisively and go all in.

[kold weather]

Just now, Relativistic said:

Figure I read was 0.1% for seasonal flu.

Most sources I've read puts it below 0.1%, but to what extent is a little too variable to put a straight number on it. One of the worst flu strain A outbreaks of the last decade in China (17-18) had a rate of 0.21, so this is 3x worse then the worst seasonal flu outbreak we've seen in recent times locally, the range I've seen is usually 0.01-0.08% though, but it is variable depending on lots of factors such as weather and also even economy.

So based on this is at least 6x more deadly than most seasonal flu outbreaks, and 3x worse than the very worst of the normal flu outbreaks in 1 country, and I suspect South Korea may end up a little higher than 0.6 once the cases drop away and people keep slowly dying from the pool of active cases.

[Snipper]

14 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Politics aside he's a total inept dumbass. Italy shutting down 16m people is just the flu bro yeah sure. New virus no one has antibodies against it. It will cripple health systems if it isn't contained. He's a spoilt little baby throwing his toys out of the pram. How ignorant can you be? 

Just read comments on Facebook and you will realise there are plenty of others.