Novel Coronavirus – China

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Good ole Trumtpy Dumpty won't be happy with this news at all!

Anyway at least there is a positive that the virus hasn't really taken off here yet, probably justifies the staying in containment phase. Once we start seeing jumps in the 000s then I think it will be time to shift focus. Got to think that is days away now, especially with the large growth of cases in Europe over the last 5-7 days.

I think the key figure is not the amount of total cases but the ratio of direct links v community transmission . 

 

[Azazel]

6 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

All those who are saying they've had it last year, or a friend had it or thought they might have it... almost certainly no you didn't.

 

The difference between this and a bad cold is minimal for most people, it's 99.99999% more likely that you had a cold.

Nobody is saying they had it - people are saying they had a sickness around Christmas time that was spookily similar and unlike anything they've ever had before.

I'm still of the persuasion that this thing was certainly circulating since before December 31st in China. Couple reasons for this, China are notoriously dishonest with regards to basically everything. It's very unlikely they would have caught the first ever case EVER. Fair enough if it was a disease that suddenly made you 60 feet tall with a giant purple head or something so it was impossible to miss, but seeing as it presents in the majority of cases similarly to the common cold, It would likely have been quietly proliferating before then (I share the opinion of the virologist I read about who reckons it's been around since at least October over there). A lot of Chinese people would have travelled to and from the UK from China for Christmas celebrations which typically begin in this country late November. It is absolutely possible IMO that there could have been a number of cases here before the WHO announcement earlier this year. Somebody posted here I think about a nurse based in the UK who claims she's been treating an increase in bilateral pneumonia cases since the autumn. They wouldn't have tested for Covid back then because they didn't know it existed. Maybe the increase in cases wasn't enough to cause alarm, but just subtle enough to notice. - I can't find a source on that so take with a truck of salt.

Am I saying I had it? No. I am 99 percent certain I had one of the flu strains (definitely wasn't a cold, it doesn't remotely fit the profile) - but there will always be that nagging one percent until I catch this version and then we'll know for sure.

[Snowy L]

Unless cases start clustering in certain regions, signifying sustained community transmission, then I don't see the point of doing anything more at present. The regional breakdown by Summer Sun looks like cases are fairly well spread across the country meaning most cases are still imported ones with very limited community transmission at the moment. For me the important thing will be noticing an emerging cluster and putting lockdowns on much earlier than Lombardi did when it got its cluster.

[Snipper]

9 minutes ago, swebby said:

Unless it snows?

Yes we should all be urged to get snow tyres on the off chance it might snow badly.  Preparedness has to fit the likelihood..

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, The4Seasons said:

Big falls on us markets. Not seen 2k points drop in my lifetime. Bouncing back off lows abit now. 

Why do I sense the whiff of financial finagling? One thing's certainly going to happen...more than one of those self-styled geniuses known as 'Quants' will be making some whopping deposits into the Cayman Islands, long before COVID-19 dies a death.  

[weirpig]

Doctors in Dudley closed

GP practice forced to close over coronavirus fears

WWW.EXPRESSANDSTAR.COM

---

More than 3,000 patients are told to stay away from GP surgery in Black Country.

 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Donegal said:

China and South Korea could be back to normal in less than two weeks. Hong Kong and Singapore seem to have kept it well under control. Europe is giant turd heading straight for the Fan. America is.. America

Hong Kong has done a remarkable job considering its location .

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, matt111 said:

Cue a washing up liquid shortage 

Always known anyway that washing up liquid will do, i get the anti bacterial type so dont have handwash in kitchen, just use washing up liquid before i have a sans=dwich or crisps, its common sense that something used to get germs off dishes will do the job, bound to be more potent than stuff for washing hands, its just some people might suffer an allergy or sore skin.

[abruzzi spur]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Maybe it's the NW strain of COVID-19

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/hipster-claiming-to-have-covid-18-20200309194292

[swebby]

16 hours ago, swebby said:

Okay, there appears to be a couple of ideas circulating on the forum which people may be getting carried away with?

I understand why people are running with them, because it creates the idea that the virus has been knocking about for a while, and so people then wonder if they've had it and are now immune.

Theory #1 - The virus may have been about in the uk since last Autumn?

The big issue with this idea is that the UK is doing random testing of people presenting with flu like symptoms, and has been doing this for a couple of weeks. These random tests have only picked up a few cases, two at kings college hospital London, and i believe the death at Milton Keynes that i know of.  If the virus has been circulating for 4-5 months, there would be a large number of positives in the random tests, so far that does not appear to be the case.

Theory #2 - The virus has two (or more) strains, one being a lot worse than the other?

Yes the virus appears to have at least two strains. But the paper that designated a L and S type strains in China was only looking at the evolution timeline of strains and trying to track that back to indicate a possible host species.  At no stage did it state that one strain was more dangerous than the other. The disparity in the figures for Wuhan compared to the rest of china is almost certainly down to the local health services being swamped, not because they had one strain rather than another. I have heard that the strain circulating in Italy may not be the same as that in S.Korea, likewise for the USA. I've no idea if this is true, but again, the deaths in Italy are probably down to the stress on their health service, combined with a very old population, not because their local  virus is inherently more dangerous.

I've no issue with people discussing ideas like this, but posters do need to remember that those discussions may be taken further afield on SM and leads to unhelpful theories going viral ('scuse the pun) so maybe clearly caveat that what you are posting are your own ideas and are not substantiated in anyway? 

 

Just bumping this, as we seem to be off down this road again?

Not exactly helped with the Daily Fails "aggressive strain" headline.

When the daily fail runs a "snowmagedon" headline, do any of us on here believe them?

Does anyone think the Daily Fail will be any more responsible, or accurate, with Covid-19?

[Joseph Hudson]

Anyone want to guess why we not seeing  rises in the 100's yet 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Joseph Hudson

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[Guest Delete Me]

Just setting the prison on fire...

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

You watch now, cancelled in Ireland - will go ahead in England.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Wow breaking news.. its on the London underground lol.

Before I get jumped on I use LU most days.....

Who would have guessed. 

[Azazel]

11 minutes ago, Donegal said:

 

I hate this pr1ck.

I genuinely can't believe he's said something as utterly irresponsible as that. Actually, no wait I can. It's 2020 and anything goes.

[Azazel]

26 minutes ago, swebby said:

Just bumping this, as we seem to be off down this road again?

Not exactly helped with the Daily Fails "aggressive strain" headline.

When the daily fail runs a "snowmagedon" headline, do any of us on here believe them?

Does anyone think the Daily Fail will be any more responsible, or accurate, with Covid-19?

Going back to the random testing, do we know how many have been randomly tested? Would be interesting to see the numbers. If they have been testing fairly large numbers then I definitely agree, if they've only tested a small sample then I'm still not one hundred percent sold.

[swebby]

9 minutes ago, Donegal said:

 

If his desire is to settle the markets, this may not be particularly helpful?

Bit like corporal Jones shouting "don't panic!"?

I will in this instance give the omnipotent orange one some praise for that tweet.

He did unlike some republicans, use the term CoronaVirus.

No Wuhan Virus nonsense, good to see.

[Azazel]

Oh and also, just to let you know, my two friends are back from Italy after arriving at Gatwick earlier this afternoon. Absolutely no screening or testing whatsoever, they just walked straight through.

[Skullzrulerz]

21 minutes ago, Joseph Hudson said:

Anyone want to guess why we not seeing  rises in the 100's yet 

Personnely it may because

1. Only tested people from certain areas / people have been with contact with infected people 

The rate 1.15-1.3 is the same along with other European countries

[cheeky_monkey]

12 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I hate this pr1ck.

I genuinely can't believe he's said something as utterly irresponsible as that. Actually, no wait I can. It's 2020 and anything goes.

not sure what is irresponsible..he is just trying to give some context around the whole thing..30 years ago this would hardly even be a news story..yet here we are with some people panicking like the end of the world is nigh..maybe if Bernie Saunders had tweeted this it would have been ok?

[Relativistic]

 

1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

not sure what is irresponsible..he is just trying to give some context around the whole thing..30 years ago this would hardly even be a news story..yet here we are with some people panicking like the end of the world is nigh..maybe if Bernie Saunders had tweeted this it would have been ok?

I'm wondering whether it's an attempt to calm the markets down.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Relativistic

[swebby]

2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Going back to the random testing, do we know how many have been randomly tested? Would be interesting to see the numbers. If they have been testing fairly large numbers then I definitely agree, if they've only tested a small sample then I'm still not one hundred percent sold.

Not sure.  A number of surgeries and hospitals were selected, presumably enough to give statistically relevant results, and regional comparisons.  Anyone turning up at one of those presenting flu like symptoms was to be tested.  If the virus has been present in the UK since November, it would now be widespread and would have to be showing up* in those tests as cases with no links to travel etc, but that does not appear to be the case.

*The only caveat that i can think of is, if it is so mild in symptoms, no one actually goes to a surgery.

[ArHu3]

31 minutes ago, Donegal said:

 

Finally someone with a bit of common sense 

[Azazel]

Just now, swebby said:

Not sure.  A number of surgeries and hospitals were selected, presumably enough to give statistically relevant results, and regional comparisons.  Anyone turning up at one of those presenting flu like symptoms was to be tested.  If the virus has been present in the UK since November, it would now be widespread and would have to be showing up* in those tests as cases with no links to travel etc, but that does not appear to be the case.

*The only caveat that i can think of is, if it is so mild in symptoms, no one actually goes to a surgery.

Yes either it was so mild nobody bothered or in my case so severe I couldn't leave the house and by the time I started feeling better I just didn't care about it anymore. I don't know, like you say I am 99 percent sure it was the flu.