Novel Coronavirus – China

[Summer Sun]

4th death in the UK.

The patient in their 70s and at the Royal Wolverhampton Hospital with underlying health conditions.

[Summer Sun]

German state of Brandenburg imposes a quarantine for up to 5,000 people

Edited March 9, 2020 by Summer Sun

[Snipper]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

4th death in the UK.

The patient in their 70s and at the Royal Wolverhampton Hospital with underlying health conditions.

Who cares about these old gits?  Let’s see a clear out.  Oh just looked in the mirror and realise I am one of them. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by Snipper

[Snipper]

10 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

It's absolutely incredible that some still don't understand how exponential growth works. 

Can’t afford chess board

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Though I agree, that was the best time to act, I wouldn't say it's too late now, but the window is shrinking. They need to act fast and decisively and go all in.

It's alright, the emergency committee are meeting in a couple of days...

[Snipper]

7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Time to act was mid January, when the virus was restricted to China, it's too late now 

Run to the hills and hide quick.

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Most sources I've read puts it below 0.1%, but to what extent is a little too variable to put a straight number on it. One of the worst flu strain A outbreaks of the last decade in China (17-18) had a rate of 0.21, so this is 3x worse then the worst seasonal flu outbreak we've seen in recent times locally, the range I've seen is usually 0.01-0.08% though, but it is variable depending on lots of factors such as weather and also even economy.

So based on this is at least 6x more deadly than most seasonal flu outbreaks, and 3x worse than the very worst of the normal flu outbreaks in 1 country, and I suspect South Korea may end up a little higher than 0.6 once the cases drop away and people keep slowly dying from the pool of active cases.

Don't forget that we vaccinate the at risk population every year, without that the death toll would be much higher 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

It's alright, the emergency committee are meeting in a couple of days...

If I were the govt I think I would be holding these meetings pretty much every 2 days from now until its totally under control as a week is a rather long time in a rapid changing situation.

I think on balance I still just about agree with the idea of not bringing in anything more drastic, for reasons others have already said but can't imagine we are far off from the point where the trigger is pulled, at least on large gatherings.

No need to close schools yet IMO though.

[swebby]

15 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Our local GP surgery and pharmacy have signs saying if you have flu like symptoms, stay at home, if they worsen call 911 just don’t come in here.

Good point. That was the national advice, so even if the designated local surgeries were not turning people away, some would still phone 111 and stay at home. There would still be hospitalisations however that will be getting tested.

[Summer Sun]

2nd death in Germany announced

Essen  & now Heinsberg

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Don't forget that we vaccinate the at risk population every year, without that the death toll would be much higher 

For sure, I suspect this will eventually morph into a seasonal flu type that with vaccination will likely have a similar CFR as normal flu strains, what has made this one so risky/dangerous is we don't have the defenses naturally/put into us to reduce the risks.

I think we still have a while until we get to this point...

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

from the guardian

Germany has reported its first two confirmed death cases of the coronavirus, local authorities said.

A spokesman for the health ministry in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia said that an 89 year-old woman with coronavirus died in the town of Essen and that another patient died in the highly affected region of Heinsberg.

[Zak M]

 

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

If I were the govt I think I would be holding these meetings pretty much every 2 days from now until its totally under control as a week is a rather long time in a rapid changing situation.

I think on balance I still just about agree with the idea of not bringing in anything more drastic, for reasons others have already said but can't imagine we are far off from the point where the trigger is pulled, at least on large gatherings.

No need to close schools yet IMO though.

It was said quite clearly that there would be various stages.  At no time has it been said the epidemic would be stopped in its tracks.  Difficult judgement call to decide what should happen and when precisely 

[Zak M]

 

[swebby]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

For sure, I suspect this will eventually morph into a seasonal flu type that with vaccination will likely have a similar CFR as normal flu strains, what has made this one so risky/dangerous is we don't have the defenses naturally/put into us to reduce the risks.

I think we still have a while until we get to this point...

Intuitively, it should end up milder than flu, more like the coronaviruses already present that are associated with the common cold but only time will tell.

[Methuselah]

36 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

not sure what is irresponsible..he is just trying to give some context around the whole thing..30 years ago this would hardly even be a news story..yet here we are with some people panicking like the end of the world is nigh..maybe if Bernie Saunders had tweeted this it would have been ok?

No, he's not; he's making a direct comparison between COVID-19, only a month in, and seasonal flu over an entire year...

[Snipper]

9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

 

Nothing better than drawing a graph to prove something either way by choosing what the x & y axis are

[kold weather]

Interestingly there is the idea there is now 3 different strains:

https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1237029037467467776/photo/1

Quite an interesting mix to see if this is true. Looks like if this is right we likely have the Italy strain here, along with a Wuhan variation imported early on.

Edited March 9, 2020 by kold weather

[Gray-Wolf]

Again I'm struggling to see the 'harm' , compared to the potential good?, of dousing the covid-19 'nursery' twice a day with 'rubbing alcohol' on cotton buds (and 'snorking back and resultant mucus over the top of the throat connection to the nasal passages?.....)

 

Maybe if I 'believe' it's doing me good hard enough then I'll get a 'Placebo boost' an'all?.......

[Snipper]

Just now, kold weather said:

Interestingly there is the idea there is now 3 different strains:

https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1237029037467467776/photo/1

Quite an interesting mix to see if this is true.

Academically this is very interesting.  Thought so from the beginning of the thread.  Problem is it is difficult to be too detached if it might impact  on  yourself. 

[Zak M]

 

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Breaking: England reports 46 new cases of Coronavirus to 9am today. This is 19 less than yesterday to the same time.

 

 

It's getting closer to me, it's been confirmed from someone at my kids secondary school. 

[Snipper]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

 

Oh dear more long paragraphs.  Anyone up for deciphering it? 

[swebby]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Interestingly there is the idea there is now 3 different strains:

https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1237029037467467776/photo/1

Quite an interesting mix to see if this is true.

Two interesting aspects to those trees.

1) UK sequences are not appearing in the same subclade as Italy. NB - that does not mean we have a better/worse strain!

2) Absolutely no Iranian designated strains, so obviously not much info coming out of Iran.  WHO i believe are now in Iran, hopefully they will be taking samples for analysis.