Novel Coronavirus – China

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Is that over the longer term in several waves . Surely she can’t mean from the current spread .

Its a mind boggling number, similar to what Varadkar quoted yesterday for Ireland..

I can see a number of countries following Italy unfortunately.

[Guest Delete Me]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

60 to 70% of Germany will be infected

 

Not sure how she comes up with that figure, represents around 55 million people

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Paul Faulkner said:

Not sure how she comes up with that figure, represents around 55 million people

Its a very infectious disease, although i agree if you take necessary measures, surely there has to be some way of stopping it getting that bad.

[Mark_p]

I'm a primary school teacher and our headteacher said today that the buzz from the headteachers in South Merseyside is that school closures would likely be in the form of an extended Easter break. That is still 3 weeks away for most schools though so I suppose it will depend on the numbers but I could see schools being closed before then. 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a very infectious disease, although i agree if you take necessary measures, surely there has to be some way of stopping it getting that bad.

Lockdown is the only way when you get to where Italy is ..

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Lockdown is the only way when you get to where Italy is ..

If you do it before then, you save many lives. remember John Campbell's comments - proactive not reactive is what we need - highly qualified medical professional.

[Guest Delete Me]

2 minutes ago, Mark88 said:

I'm a primary school teacher and our headteacher said today that the buzz from the headteachers in South Merseyside is that school closures would likely be in the form of an extended Easter break. That is still 3 weeks away for most schools though so I suppose it will depend on the numbers but I could see schools being closed before then. 

That's the kind of talk im seeing, if the government can extend the delay phase for a few more weeks we can tag the closure onto Easter.

[Guest Delete Me]

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Delete Me

[Zak M]

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

If you do it before then, you save many lives. remember John Campbell's comments - proactive not reactive is what we need - highly qualified medical professional.

I suspect there will be a provision in the Governments phases for lockdown.

The figures will be watched very closely over the coming days..

[Zak M]

 

[swebby]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What about if it spreads to Kenya and Ethiopia, the death toll will end up making the holocaust look tame.

Kinshasa, Democratic republic of Congo and Lagos in Nigeria - both bigger than London and that's before you get to the real potential nightmares of the really big cities with high poverty levels like Karachi, Dhaka, Mexico city or Sao Paulo.  The only good thing so far, cases from places like this seem few and far between, maybe confirmation of the virus being something that is only going to spread through winter months.

[swebby]

12 minutes ago, Mark88 said:

I'm a primary school teacher and our headteacher said today that the buzz from the headteachers in South Merseyside is that school closures would likely be in the form of an extended Easter break. That is still 3 weeks away for most schools though so I suppose it will depend on the numbers but I could see schools being closed before then. 

I suspect the government is trying to get through to Easter without UK wide closures, but they will need luck on their side. Would not be surprised to see closures based on post code/local authority first.

Edited March 10, 2020 by swebby

[Snipper]

44 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Cannot see any reference to 99% of the population getting the disease?   99% recovering from it is a totally different thing!

Quite agree. 

[Snipper]

Just now, swebby said:

I suspect the government is trying to muddle through to Easter without UK wide closures, but they will need luck on their side. Would not be surprised to see closures based on post code/local authority first.

I don’t see muddling. 

[Spikecollie]

57 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some  data from France . Looking at who is infected clearly working makes a big difference .

Which is logical as you come into contact with more people.

Under 18 -7% 

18 to 64 -64% 

65 and over 29%

The case fatality rate is as follows .

Under 40 0.2%

40 to 49 0.4%

50 to 59 1.3%

60 to 69 3.6%

70 to 79 8%

80+ 15% 

How's your bubble, Nick? No information on mine yet...

[Guest Delete Me]

Tilburg which is the worst struck town in Holland had its main hospital randomly tested 301 employees who have not been to risk areas or been in contact with Covid-19 patients. 28 of them tested positive.

 

28 medewerkers ziekenhuis Tilburg besmet met coronavirus

WWW.TELEGRAAF.NL

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Uit een steekproef onder medewerkers van het Elisabeth-TweeSteden Ziekenhuis (ETZ) in Tilburg blijkt dat 28 van hen het coronavirus hebben opgelopen. Dat heeft het ziekenhuis zelf bekendgemaakt.

 

[Azazel]

Sobering.

[nick sussex]

Just now, Spikecollie said:

How's your bubble, Nick? No information on mine yet...

Hard to know there are so many cases now ! 

But of what I’ve seen from the updates all the depts directly bordering the Pyrenees never get a mention .

The vast majority of new cases are in the 6 main clusters.

I’ll have a trawl through the regional papers online and report back ! 

[The PIT]

3 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Tilburg which is the worst struck town in Holland had its main hospital randomly tested 301 employees who have not been to risk areas or been in contact with Covid-19 patients. 28 of them tested positive.

 

28 medewerkers ziekenhuis Tilburg besmet met coronavirus

WWW.TELEGRAAF.NL

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Uit een steekproef onder medewerkers van het Elisabeth-TweeSteden Ziekenhuis (ETZ) in Tilburg blijkt dat 28 van hen het coronavirus hebben opgelopen. Dat heeft het ziekenhuis zelf bekendgemaakt.

 

This probably the same elsewhere with people showing no symptoms at all but carrying it.

[Spikecollie]

168 new deaths in Italy, France is up to 30 as you probably know - I can't go back through all the updates on here when I get in from work to know who has reported what, but I do my best!

[swebby]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

I don’t see muddling. 

Yes, not a sensible choice of word on my part so have edited.  Was meaning to convey that they are not the masters of their fate, rather than criticise. 

[Ryukai]

Coronavirus (COVID-19): number of cases in England - GOV.UK

WWW.GOV.UK

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Updated with todays figures.  Areas now into double digits, Devon 13, Hampshire 10, Hertfordshire 16, Kensington and Chelsea 13.  It was only Devon and Hertfordshire yesterday, no increase in Devon but increases in the other 3 areas.

Also the gov website now links to this site for info-graphics/data 

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

WWW.ARCGIS.COM

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Damm amazing looking site

[Stabilo19]

Today's % of positive tests compared to total # tested is 4.15% - the highest of any day so far.

4 in 100 'sick' or 'at risk' individuals testing positive for coronavirus.

[The PIT]

34 minutes ago, swebby said:

Amazing?

Plenty of foreign students here in Exeter but no cases, yet Devon is one of the leading counties for cases - cos? UK holiday makers coming back from ski trips over half term?  Make of that what you will.

Sheffield University is 9th highest University with overseas students add in Hallam as well that will probably move it up a few places in the rankings as well.