Novel Coronavirus – China

[Emz by the Thames]

Looks like South Bucks/Wycombe has it's first case, a local doctor's surgery is closed for deep cleaning and a 'contact' of a pupil at the local has tested positive.  That makes me feel a little scared even though I have no contact with the surgery or school, it also makes me feel like I should start staying in.

[Summer Sun]

39 days in the UK has 373 cases and 6 deaths

24 days in Italy has 9,172 cases and 463 deaths

 

 

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

A world leading professor CMO, peddling misleading information?

You have just turned ALL scientific reason on its head!

Possibly, but hard to deny actual facts which is out of 70,000 people that have a conclusive result either way (live or die), 5.9% have died, which at the moment clearly are not agreeing with what the CMO is describing.  Maybe once we have a million cases resolved, we may see that number reach that 1%, but for now that number looks a fair bit too low (even with the assumption 5.9% will steadily drop over the next few weeks/months.)

PS - of course they may also be acknowledging that not all cases will be caught!  

Edited March 10, 2020 by kold weather

[Spikecollie]

Monsieur Macron has just finished a teleconference with EU leaders. The EU is working together against the virus including protecting the supply of masks and increasing the number of ventilators available to patients. 100 million € is to be unlocked for research into the disease and for a vaccine.

More and more we need this "working together" mentatlity and solidarity matters when we are faced with a common enemy such as this that does not respect borders, countries or cultures. The UK is included in the measures, by the way, for the moment...

[DAVID SNOW]

5 minutes ago, swebby said:

Are we talking about something that will wipe out the human race in 6 months, or something comparable to a bad flu epidemic?

If a treatment might kill 3% of those it is administered to, or 0.003%, or 30%, at what point do you role it out as a better option?

Also - do you think researchers sit about and say that it will take a year for the fun of it?  Or do you think that we might just possibly think of the consequences before we stick a foreign agent in to another Human being?  

And yes, it is about money, it's always been about money, how do you think research happens?

Sorry for the confusion.

Yes total wipe out.

[Spikecollie]

7 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Prob a combination of crappy weather (almost constant weekend storms keeping people in), us not shoving our faces into someone else's face the moment we meet them and our 'personal bubble' space that's helping. 

Had a foreign lady standing behind me in a queue earlier today, she was so far up my backside so to speak, that if I'd tilted my head back by an inch I would have butted her on the nose with the back of my head >.< absolutely no concept of personal space whatsoever.

I thought of that the other evening. We kiss a lot here but those of us in the healthcare area have resorted to elbow bumping - it felt very uncomfortable yesterday with the nurse who was visiting one of my clients but we both did it - hesitantly - as we know each other well. It's called "proxemics" - the study of social distance - and it's interesting. The further north (given some differences) you go, the greater the expected distance. The further south, the less so. Think about it. Big animal skin fur coats insulating you from bodily contact historially in the north, more skimpy stuff further south. These are highly ingrained cultural memes and practices and very hard to break...

[Relativistic]

6 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Monsieur Macron has just finished a teleconference with EU leaders. The EU is working together against the virus including protecting the supply of masks and increasing the number of ventilators available to patients. 100 million € is to be unlocked for research into the disease and for a vaccine.

More and more we need this "working together" mentatlity and solidarity matters when we are faced with a common enemy such as this that does not respect borders, countries or cultures. The UK is included in the measures, by the way, for the moment...

Do you honestly think that if this happened five years from now the EU and UK would not cooperate?

[Bristawl Si]

14 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Denmark is worrying 90 cases as of yesterday in total today 262 with 172 cases diagnosed today... I’m guessing a lot of Danes have come back from skiing in Italy/France/Germany/Austria  over the last week/ fortnight 

my brother in Denmark is worried as my sister in law still recovering with/from triple negative breast cancer/low immune system 

The Danes travel all over the world in Winter. The Canary Islands very popular; we often bump into a Danish couple in Fuerteventura (my wife is friends on farcebook). Stats from Denmark back up the Canaries as a hotspot. 000s of Danes also cruise, mainly with NCL (Norweigan Cruise Line), so during Winter they'll be in the Caribbean, South East Asia. In the Carib last couple of months they would've mixed with plenty of Americans, as well as Carib islanders. Copenhagen is a major cruise port for NCL. 

Point is dont just focus on Italy as point of infection for the Danish numbers.

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Ryukai said:

that's a 50% increase not 200%, they had 61 the day before and they added 30 today

61 / 30 = 2.03

100 / 2.03 = 49.26% increase on the previous day

 

p.s 200% on the previous day would require you to add 61 twice to the previous days total giving you 183.....

I’m talking about daily increase it jumped from +10 yesterday to +30 today easy maths....

[Spikecollie]

Just now, Relativistic said:

Do you honestly think that if this happened five years from now the EU and UK would not cooperate?

I sincerely hope and believe they would. But funding...

Enough said, off topic...

[swebby]

5 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Sorry for the confusion.

Yes total wipe out.

In that case?

Most likely outcome?

We all die.

[Snipper]

2 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Do you honestly think that if this happened five years from now the EU and UK would not cooperate?

Of course they blooming well would.

[Relativistic]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Possibly, but hard to deny actual facts which is out of 70,000 people that have a conclusive result either way (live or die), 5.9% have died, which at the moment clearly are not agreeing with what the CMO is describing.  Maybe once we have a million cases resolved, we may see that number reach that 1%, but for now that number looks a fair bit too low (even with the assumption 5.9% will steadily drop over the next few weeks/months.)

PS - of course they may also be acknowledging that not all cases will be caught!  

Yes, it's exceedingly difficult to have a handle on the true number of cases. On the Diamond Princess when the number of confirmed cases got into the hundreds, the number of asymptomatic cases hovered around at or just above half of those. There are, however, caveats with looking at just one control group.

[Spikecollie]

Hey - here we go! M. Macron has said that the decisions by Italy and Austria to close their borders with Italy was a bad decision. The EU divided already! I did say this very early on about Schengen countries and how it's not going to be an easy ride for unilateral action...

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Spikecollie said:

Hey - here we go! M. Macron has said that the decisions by Italy and Austria to close their borders with Italy was a bad decision. The EU divided already! I did say this very early on about Schengen countries and how it's not going to be an easy ride for unilateral action...

If they can't get to grips with this then hundreds of thousands will die across Europe by the time this finally blows itself out over the next 12 months, this is not the time for ideology.

 

[Relativistic]

5 minutes ago, swebby said:

In that case?

Most likely outcome?

We all die.

Question from someone who has no idea. Have there been any cases of entire species being wiped out at the hands of a single virus in such a short time frame?

[emax]

2 hours ago, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ said:

Forgive the link source but I cant be bothered to trawl through bbc breakfast to find her say it, but this should be sufficient in lieu

"So large numbers of the population will become infected but because it's a naive population, nobody has got antibodies to this virus currently.

"Having said that we know that 99% of those will get better and most people will have quite a mild disease and can be managed safely at home."

Containment

Dr Harries added: "We still have relatively few cases here, which is why we're still in the containment phase."

Thousands of Brits will get coronavirus over coming weeks and Britain could face full lockdown

WWW.THESUN.CO.UK

---

Jenny Harries warned that the number of cases will soon skyrocket, after top medics told Britain that they would have to stay home if they...

 

Ah good you actually looked it up. Shame you didnt read it though lol.

As I suspected, its the Sky News interview people are talking about, which says nothing whatsoever about her saying 99% is just normal flu (or whatever people are making up)

This illustrates my point exactly about how people are just simply biased against any type of establishment, and will twist (or just lie) about interviews such as these. I dont know why people do it, maybe just to belittle someone for no reason, or maybe just to dramatise the situation even more.....who knows!!

[DAVID SNOW]

7 minutes ago, swebby said:

In that case?

Most likely outcome?

We all die.

I would be more hopeful that instead of something taking 12 months (too late all dead) it could be done in 6.

Just my opinion  again.

[Spikecollie]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

If they can't get to grips with this then hundreds of thousands will die across Europe by the time this finally blows itself out over the next 12 months, this is not the time for ideology.

 

I really don't know how I feel/think about this now. I have too much personal/work involvement and I can't seperate head from heart. I think the EU/individual countries need to give it another week and see how things progress. Maybe, then, maybe there will be a need for a real curtailment of movement - regarding the logistics, I wouldn't even begin to speculate and it presents a personal and communal nightmare...

[feb1991blizzard]

26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

39 days in the UK has 373 cases and 6 deaths

24 days in Italy has 9,172 cases and 463 deaths

 

 

Thats because generally people are coming back to UK from italy so impact will be delayed, i doubt with our weather that lots of Italians say 'oh i will take a winter break in the UK' so when this started to get worse, i doubt there was loads of Italians in London who cant wait to get back yet there will be loads who have just come back to the UK, this will explode in the next week here, its certainly not because of our policy that we have somehow miraculously avoided huge case numbers yet, its because we are an Island and it will naturally take longer for the devastation to hit us.

Edited March 10, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

Trump just saying keep calm it will go away.

Really? 

[Guest Delete Me]

Macron spitting his dummy out I see, keep your borders open then and see what happens

[DAVID SNOW]

Getting too political in here?

Just my opinion lol.

[kold weather]

Today is now the most deadliest day worldwide since the start of this virus.

[Snipper]

18 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Hey - here we go! M. Macron has said that the decisions by Italy and Austria to close their borders with Italy was a bad decision. The EU divided already! I did say this very early on about Schengen countries and how it's not going to be an easy ride for unilateral action...

When I said some time back I was surprised that EU was not apparently too involved with the epidemic quite a few came back saying it was up to each country to deal with it.  Why is EU’s involvement now having a slightly higher profile?