Novel Coronavirus – China

[feb1991blizzard]

Look how easily spread it is.

 

[Spikecollie]

33 deaths now here in France, 19 male and 14 female. Still not enough to establish a statistically significant difference between the genders here.

[Summer Sun]

 

[kold weather]

37 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

60 to 70% of Germany will be infected

 

Wow that really is something isn't it, that likely leads to the deaths somewhere close to a million if that is true...

Also France cases seem to be escalating along with Spain.

We really are either doing exceptional well...or are being exceptionally lucky!

[swebby]

1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

Today's % of positive tests compared to total # tested is 4.15% - the highest of any day so far.

4 in 100 'sick' or 'at risk' individuals testing positive for coronavirus.

Be careful with analysing or conveying meaning to the negative test numbers outside of seeing if an authority is actually bothering to run testing. At the end of the day, they say nothing more than "an individual that has not contracted x, y, z at this particular time", and cumulative values for them are therefore a bit of nonsense.  Positives tests as a % of a population have more significance.

[northwestsnow]

Im reading Lombardy now running at 8% death rate..

Double Wuhan!! Is this a different strain..?

[summer blizzard]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Wow that really is something isn't it, that likely leads to the deaths somewhere close to a million if that is true...

Also France cases seem to be escalating along with Spain.

We really are either doing exceptional well...or are being exceptionally lucky!

One does wonder if the Germans have it in them to lock down entire areas given their politics and devotion to liberalism. 

[Stabilo19]

3 minutes ago, swebby said:

Be careful with analysing or conveying meaning to the negative test numbers outside of seeing if an authority is actually bothering to run testing. At the end of the day, they say nothing more than "an individual that has not contracted x, y, z at this particular time", and cumulative values for them are therefore a bit of nonsense.  Positives tests as a % of a population have more significance.

There's an increase in the # of people testing positive compared to total # of tests carried. That information is very telling. Can you clarify what you mean?

Edited March 10, 2020 by Stabilo19

[swebby]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im reading Lombardy now running at 8% death rate..

Double Wuhan!! Is this a different strain..?

Will not say no, that is possible, but different treatment capacity is more probable?  E.g. - Italy have not built any 1,000 bed treatment centres in a matter of days.

Some of the anecdotal accounts of what is happening in the Hospitals of Northern Italy is very grim reading.

[Ryukai]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im reading Lombardy now running at 8% death rate..

Double Wuhan!! Is this a different strain..?

More likely due to the large amount of elderly people, just over 22% of the population is 65+ 

Lombardia (Region, Italy) - Population Statistics, Charts, Map and Location

WWW.CITYPOPULATION.DE

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Lombardia (Region, Italy) with population statistics, charts, map and location.

That and not having the equipment/hospitals to deal with large numbers of elderly patients all at the same time is gonna mean a lot of seriously ill folk not getting full treatment.  

Edited March 10, 2020 by Ryukai

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Im reading Lombardy now running at 8% death rate..

Double Wuhan!! Is this a different strain..?

Unlikely .

Its an indication of what happens when the health system becomes overwhelmed.

Fatality rates go up especially as doctors are now having to make decisions they’d not normally have to .

The psychological damage to many doctors there is going to be huge. Essentially they’re dealing with a war situation where they have to decide with finite resources who will get a ventilator etc .

They know that their decisions mean a likely death sentence for some of their patients.

Its a horrific situation. 

[The PIT]

China and South Korea seem to have got a handle on it. It will be interesting what happens when the controls are eased back.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Gael_Force]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im reading Lombardy now running at 8% death rate..

Double Wuhan!! Is this a different strain..?

Wuhan built new hospitals in days and were able to free-up specialist hospitals to concentrate on the critically ill, Italy does not have that luxury. Some very distressing decisions are having to be made regarding who gets treatment and who is unlikely to survive dangerous invasive therapies.

Couple of stats from Wuhan.

Who is getting sick? A look at coronavirus risk by age, gender, and more

WWW.STATNEWS.COM

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For a variety of reasons, researchers want to figure out who’s most at risk of being infected and who’s most at risk of developing severe illness.

 

[Spikecollie]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Unlikely .

Its an indication of what happens when the health system becomes overwhelmed.

Fatality rates go up especially as doctors are now having to make decisions they’d not normally have to .

The psychological damage to many doctors there is going to be huge. Essentially they’re dealing with a war situation where they have to decide with finite resources who will get a ventilator etc .

They know that their decisions mean a likely death sentence for some of their patients.

Its a horrific situation. 

I would imagine that many doctors and other healthcare workers will suffer some degree of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. This will put further pressure on the system as things (may) gradually begin to return to some something resembling normality. Some may never work again,,,

[swebby]

6 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

There's an increase in the # of people testing positive compared to total # of tests carried. That information is very telling. Can you clarify what you mean?

If you are looking at the ratio for tests on a single particular day that could have some meaning, but cumulative negative tests, no. 

A daily ratio would presumably increase with an epidemic, but.... That ratio could also increase if less people turn up with seasonal flu (which should actually happen as we approach April) and get tested while the actual Covid-19 cases remains static.  The negative test simply says, subject does not have x yet, it does not say the same subject will not have x tomorrow.

[nick sussex]

I expect to see post this virus spread a larger than normal amount  of doctors leaving the profession or retiring early especially those who have been in the front line and where health systems have been overwhelmed.

Its crucial that all health providers provide good emotional support and counselling for their staff .

Some are likely to develop PTSD aswell as other disorders .

The most dangerous time will be when the situation calms down and there’s been more time for introspection.

Currently many are running on auto pilot . 

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by nick sussex

[DAVID SNOW]

Calm heads required!

Shutting down/locking down whole economies would be the biggest disaster the modern western world has ever seen.

That's what you would have to do to contain this virus now.

As for a vaccine, I think this could be fast tracked with some cutting of corners(all about risk v benefit) if required. imo.

[cheeky_monkey]

interestingly the spread in China seems to have slowed markedly almost to a stop with only 700 new cases being reported in the last 7 days

[Spikecollie]

Interesting statement from the French Chief Medical Officer that Iam translating for you:

"It resembles 'flu but you aren't protected. There are no treatments and no one is immunised. It can cause severe forms in people who are not aged and who have not got underlying conditions." Make of it as you will...

[weirpig]

13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Our numbers are minimal when you consider this   somethings keeping it low at the moment   long may it continue

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Calm heads required!

Shutting down/locking down whole economies would be the biggest disaster the modern western world has ever seen.

That's what you would have to do to contain this virus now.

As for a vaccine, I think this could be fast tracked with some cutting of corners(all about risk v benefit) if required. imo.

This likely is the biggest global event since WW2 (there maybe a few specific days in the Cold war era that may also be up there, as was 9/11, however this is truely global in scale and likely to impact all facets of life).

I too suspect some of the countries with lower standards may well fast track a vaccine, in the end the possible risk to a small group will be seen as a small price to pay for possibly saving many hundreds of thousands. (AKA the Hiroshima argument) 

Edited March 10, 2020 by kold weather

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Spikecollie said:

Interesting statement from the French Chief Medical Officer that Iam translating for you:

"It resembles 'flu but you aren't protected. There are no treatments and no one is immunised. It can cause severe forms in people who are not aged and who have not got underlying conditions." Make of it as you will...

Ghastly.

[swebby]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Calm heads required!

Shutting down/locking down whole economies would be the biggest disaster the modern western world has ever seen.

That's what you would have to do to contain this virus now.

As for a vaccine, I think this could be fast tracked with some cutting of corners(all about risk v benefit) if required. imo.

If you cut corners, then you can not determine what the risk vs benefit is.  

Fast tracking will be about funding.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Calm heads required!

Shutting down/locking down whole economies would be the biggest disaster the modern western world has ever seen.

That's what you would have to do to contain this virus now.

As for a vaccine, I think this could be fast tracked with some cutting of corners(all about risk v benefit) if required. imo.

A bigger disaster than millions dying?