Novel Coronavirus – China

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Interesting statement from the French Chief Medical Officer that Iam translating for you:

"It resembles 'flu but you aren't protected. There are no treatments and no one is immunised. It can cause severe forms in people who are not aged and who have not got underlying conditions." Make of it as you will...

Ties in with the French data. Liberation had an article covering that . 

25% of those in intensive care did not have any underlying conditions .

The title of the article . Le coronavirus n’est pas une grippette .

Edited March 10, 2020 by nick sussex

[kold weather]

Just now, weirpig said:

Our numbers are minimal when you consider this   somethings keeping it low at the moment   long may it continue

Probably pure luck I'm afraid, it will take just one super spreader in London and the thing will set off like we have seen in many other countries. May already be happening and could be reflected in the numbers by the weekend.

COBRA going to have a tough call on Friday, I don't think the numbers justify a change yet in the govts eyes however as we have seen in Spain 48hrs could make a monumental difference in the numbers, so they may go for it on Friday, that would be my best guess.

[DAVID SNOW]

1 minute ago, swebby said:

If you cut corners, then you can not determine what the risk vs benefit is.  

Fast tracking will be about funding.

Put it this way, if the world new a virus would wipe everyone out within say 6 months would the experts say "Sorry it will take a year" ?

Money is not an issue.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Probably pure luck I'm afraid, it will take just one super spreader in London and the thing will set off like we have seen in many other countries. May already be happening and could be reflected in the numbers by the weekend.

COBRA going to have a tough call on Friday, I don't think the numbers justify a change yet in the govts eyes however as we have seen in Spain 48hrs could make a monumental difference in the numbers, so they may go for it on Friday, that would be my best guess.

Every bad day numbers wise will edge us closer to a lockdown.

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Ties in with the French data. Liberation had an article covering that . 

25% of those in intensive care did not have any underlying conditions .

The title of the article . Le coronavirus n’est pas une grippette .

And in english nick  getting to grip  with coronavirus?   Sorry  awful education 

[DAVID SNOW]

5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

A bigger disaster than millions dying?

How many do you think could die as a result of economic collapse?

Not saying this is going to happen of course.

[Spikecollie]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

And in english nick  getting to grip  with coronavirus?   Sorry  awful education 

It means "it's not a little 'flu!

[swebby]

This just now on the guardian.

Quote

 

Kevin Rawlinson

Back here in the UK, a school in north-west London has had a Covid-19 case confirmed but health officials have said there’s no need for it to close, nor for any staff or pupils to be put into quarantine, Kevin Rawlinson reports.

Hatch End high school has published a letter from its headteacher confirming a person at the school has tested positive, though it did not say whether they are staff or a puil.”

The person was last in school on Friday 6 March. PHE have conducted a risk assessment and advised us that no staff or pupils need to exclude themselves from school.”

A group of pupils and a small number of staff members have been asked to monitor themselves for symptoms, for a period of 14 days (until 20th March). No one in this group has been asked to exclude themselves from school if they are well.”

A note on its website added: “Given the specifics of this case they have determined that a deep clean of the school is not required.”

 

Now, i'm not someone qualified to do any kind of risk assessment on something like this, so PHE might be absolutely correct in a deep clean not being required.

But!

If someone from that school, that is not in the self isolation group, now comes down with the virus, what do PHE expect the reaction of the parents and the press to be?

A sad sigh and muttering of "oh well" under their breath?

Or the village mob brandishing pitchforks and burning torches baying for blood?

The deep clean might not be required, but that is not the same thing as it not being prudent.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Spikecollie said:

It means "it's not a little 'flu!

Thanks spike  

[Summer Sun]

UK data can now be seen in Graph format. Nearly 5 1/2 weeks since the first confirmed cases we're on 324 cases in England and 373 for the UK as a whole.

 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Summer Sun

[nick sussex]

Just now, weirpig said:

And in english nick  getting to grip  with coronavirus?   Sorry  awful education 

In the article its saying that this isn’t the normal type flu.

And 50% of those in a serious condition are younger than in a normal flu season where it’s normally around over 80% of much older people .

And the severity of the illness is worse.

I think there’s been a narrative built up that only old people end up in intensive care. And only people with underlying conditions . Both of those aren’t happening with the French data.

[Spikecollie]

French news reports that many interntional health experts are denouncing the testing methodology used by the US and that the lack of testing is contribtuing to the spread of the disease. Wakey, wakey...

Edited March 10, 2020 by Spikecollie

[Spikecollie]

3 minutes ago, swebby said:

This just now on the guardian.

Now, i'm not someone qualified to do any kind of risk assessment on something like this, so PHE might be absolutely correct in a deep clean not being required.

But!

If someone from that school, that is not in the self isolation group, now comes down with the virus, what do PHE expect the reaction of the parents and the press to be?

A sad sigh and muttering of "oh well" under their breath?

Or the village mob brandishing pitchforks and burning torches baying for blood?

The deep clean might not be required, but that is not the same thing as it not being prudent.

Oh come on! If there's a case in a school, everyone in close proximity needs to self isolate and the person needs to be named so that this can happen.

What's going on with this?

[Stabilo19]

A lot of what we know is based on data from China, which of course, is unreliable. So it's interesting that other countries are reporting differences regarding virus spread, fatality rates, symptom severity and age groups affected. 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Stabilo19

[kold weather]

So we are now near 70,000 cases that have been resolved. We STILL have a death rate around 5.9% which is actually quite amazing. Whilst that is being skewed by Italy, I can't help but feel the CMO and others have been peddling somewhat misleading information with regards to the potential mortality rate. 70,000 is a fairly decent pool of people to work from and that number really hasn't shifted all that much (between 5.5-6%) for the last 7-10 days. It may still come down, but 1% sounds on the optimistic side of things based on the overall amount of deaths vs recovered cases so far.)

[WillinGlossop]

Denmark is worrying 90 cases as of yesterday in total today 262 with 172 cases diagnosed today... I’m guessing a lot of Danes have come back from skiing in Italy/France/Germany/Austria  over the last week/ fortnight 

my brother in Denmark is worried as my sister in law still recovering with/from triple negative breast cancer/low immune system 

Edited March 10, 2020 by WillinGlossop

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, weirpig said:

And in english nick  getting to grip  with coronavirus?   Sorry  awful education 

Aye Mark...If you're as under-educated as 'moi', you'll stick with Captain Trips?

Edited March 10, 2020 by General Cluster
As I said: I'm undereducated!

[Gael_Force]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Ties in with the French data. Liberation had an article covering that . 

25% of those in intensive care did not have any underlying conditions .

The title of the article . Le coronavirus n’est pas une grippette .

I saw Italy had their youngest ICU admission yesterday ... 18y/o male.

Interesting that some European countries have avoided the 'comfort blanket' of old/underlying diseases. They will need to be very frank to get population compliance for what will be something the young of the free west have never seen in their lifetime.

[Captain Shortwave]

20 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Calm heads required!

Shutting down/locking down whole economies would be the biggest disaster the modern western world has ever seen.

That's what you would have to do to contain this virus now.

As for a vaccine, I think this could be fast tracked with some cutting of corners(all about risk v benefit) if required. imo.

A global pandemic where millions are sick at once would have the same result. All about balance. As for a vaccine, it’s not a simple process I am afraid, you need a wide sample group to cover the entire spectrum of the public, that requires time that you can’t get around.

Best bet is a pre-existing drug is found to reduce the symptom of the virus and thus reduces the chance of severe respiratory damage in high risk groups.

[swebby]

9 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Put it this way, if the world new a virus would wipe everyone out within say 6 months would the experts say "Sorry it will take a year" ?

Money is not an issue.

Are we talking about something that will wipe out the human race in 6 months, or something comparable to a bad flu epidemic?

If a treatment might kill 3% of those it is administered to, or 0.003%, or 30%, at what point do you role it out as a better option?

Also - do you think researchers sit about and say that it will take a year for the fun of it?  Or do you think that we might just possibly think of the consequences before we stick a foreign agent in to another Human being?  

And yes, it is about money, it's always been about money, how do you think research happens?

[Ryukai]

18 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Our numbers are minimal when you consider this   somethings keeping it low at the moment   long may it continue

Prob a combination of crappy weather (almost constant weekend storms keeping people in), us not shoving our faces into someone else's face the moment we meet them and our 'personal bubble' space that's helping. 

Had a foreign lady standing behind me in a queue earlier today, she was so far up my backside so to speak, that if I'd tilted my head back by an inch I would have butted her on the nose with the back of my head >.< absolutely no concept of personal space whatsoever.

[Zak M]

 

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Aye Mark...If you're as underacted as 'moi', you'll stick with Captain Trips?

I actually have the stand taped   ( taped? How old am I)   might watch it later  

[DAVID SNOW]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

So we are now near 70,000 cases that have been resolved. We STILL have a death rate around 5.9% which is actually quite amazing. Whilst that is being skewed by Italy, I can't help but feel the CMO and others have been peddling somewhat misleading information with regards to the potential mortality rate. 70,000 is a fairly decent pool of people to work from and that number really hasn't shifted all that much (between 5.5-6%) for the last 7-10 days. It may still come down, but 1% sounds on the optimistic side of things based on the overall amount of deaths vs recovered cases so far.)

A world leading professor CMO, peddling misleading information?

You have just turned ALL scientific reason on its head!

[DAVID SNOW]

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

A global pandemic where millions are sick at once would have the same result. All about balance. As for a vaccine, it’s not a simple process I am afraid, you need a wide sample group to cover the entire spectrum of the public, that requires time that you can’t get around.

Best bet is a pre-existing drug is found to reduce the symptom of the virus and thus reduces the chance of severe respiratory damage in high risk groups.

I'm not an expert, that's why I said imo.