COVID-19 Pandemic

[Summer Sun]

 

[Snowy L]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Italy have released data for deaths by age brackets in the Lombardy region

• 0-9 - No deaths
• 10-19 - No deaths
• 20-29 - No deaths
• 30 to 39 - 1 death (0.1%)
• 40 to 49 - 1 death (0.1%)
• 50-59 - 14 deaths (1.7%)
• 60-69 - 65 deaths (8.1%)
• 70-79 - 274 deaths (34.2%)
• 80-89 - 355 deaths (44.3%)
• 90+ - 75 deaths (9.3%)

18 deaths were not reported - Total deaths so far 803

Interesting. I saw a tweet from a journalist saying they are now deciding to save 20 year olds at the expense of 30 year olds. From those figures that means that journalist was outright lying to cause mass panic.

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Interesting. I saw a tweet from a journalist saying they are now deciding to save 20-year-olds at the expense of 30-year-olds. From those figures that means that journalist was outright lying to cause mass panic.

Not surprised, sadly. Scaremongering will go through the roof even though the vast majority will experience a very mild illness. Yes, they'll be deaths, but not on the scale some try and make out.

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

That's terrible for the over 70s.

If only we could send them all to the Isle of Wight for 3 months holiday while the rest of us build up our immunity 

The other thing to remember, it maybe that the younger patients who are in Intesive care (we know there are some) maybe getting priority treatment over the older more fragile group.

However ultimately, its a really deadly disease for the old and that really backs up this governments argument to target the older generation and get them to self isolate whilst the rest of us catch it (knowing its not going to kill us younger people).

[Stabilo19]

9 minutes ago, swebby said:

Just to clarify, before the thread heads off into another argument.

Epidemiology is basically the intersection between virology (the study of the physical nature of a virus and it's interaction at a cellular level)  and behavioral science (sociology and psychology). 

Virologists will be looking for a cure/vaccine, they will not be concerning themselves with the behavior of school kids or football fans. 

We can all discuss things without getting into an argument i'm sure. I added my thoughts about the UK policy and people have disagreed - that's fine. It's good to critically analyse things and discuss. In the current political climate, things are getting very polarized and a lot of people refuse to discuss or debate anything anymore. 

[Snowy L]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not surprised, sadly. Scaremongering will go through the roof even though the vast majority will experience a very mild illness. Yes, they'll be deaths, but not on the scale some try and make out.

Found the tweet. My mistake she said they are taking 40-year-olds off for 30s. The point still stand out seeing as we only have 1 40 year old death. Completely unsubstantiated and I panicked when I saw her tweet, no doubt loads of others would have too.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Snowy L

[Snipper]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

That's terrible for the over 70s.

If only we could send them all to the Isle of Wight for 3 months holiday while the rest of us build up our immunity 

Hate to be stuck with a crowd of old people and I’m one of them

[Summer Sun]

The National League have confirmed games WILL be played this weekend in its 3 divisions.  

Harrogate Town v Solihull Moors is expected to be called off tonight as 4 employees at Harrogate are self-isolating. 

[Summer Sun]

26 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Found the tweet. My mistake she said its taking 40-year-olds off for 30s. The point still stand out seeing as we only have 1 40 year old death. Completely unsubstantiated and I panicked when I saw her tweet, no doubt loads of others would have too.

Stick to people with Blue ticks on twitter during corona. Anyone else is prone to tweet complete cods wallop for the attention.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Summer Sun

[swebby]

13 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Interesting. I saw a tweet from a journalist saying they are now deciding to save 20 year olds at the expense of 30 year olds. From those figures that means that journalist was outright lying to cause mass panic.

Saw the post which contained that tweet, but did not really investigate further as you need to be rather cautious with a tweet, most especially if the individual is not themselves a medic actually involved in the decision making.

Yes, maybe 40 year olds being removed from assisted breathing at the expense of thirty year olds has happened, but without case specifics you can not assess what that actually means. Entirely possible there was a 30 yo that was otherwise fit and healthy, but with acute hypoxia because of Covid-19, in need of mechanical breathing, all the units in use, and of those units being used, the patient with the worse prognosis happened to be a 40 yo with serious comorbidities.

Edited March 13, 2020 by swebby

[Summer Sun]

The German Bundesliga is the latest to be completely axed from this weekend.

[Methuselah]

32 minutes ago, snow raven said:

So a lot more educated in this subject than the armchair doctors in this thread then?

So that's Dr.s Death and Feelgood put in their places!

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, Boro Snow said:

Shes talking about Ireland though not Italy 

I think it was a conference call to a doc in Italy.

Either way it's total rubbish/very badly worded, they've only had 2 deaths under 40.

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, swebby said:

Saw the post which contained that tweet, but did not really investigate further as you need to be rather cautious with a tweet, most especially if the individual is not themselves a medic actually involved in the decision making.

Yes, maybe 40 year olds being removed from assisted breathing at the expense of thirty year olds has happened, but without case specifics you can not assess what that actually means. Entirely possible there was a 30 yo that was otherwise fit and healthy, but with acute hypoxia because of Covid-19, in need of mechanical breathing, all the units in use, and of those units being used, the patient with the worse prognosis happened to be a 40 yo with serious comorbidities.

Whilst that story may have been made up, it does still ring true that there will be hard decisions to be made by doctors in many countries in the not too distant future.

Put simply, the numbers expected to have to be hospitalised in a theoritcal peak of this (and this is VERY conservative math I've done here) would be around 75,000 a week. Then given it takes generally 2-3 weeks to recover enough to go home (or die) that number will rapidly swell towards 250,000 at any one time, not including the 50-75000 that need the beds for care normally. So lets put it a conservative 300,000 needing beds at peak. Then there will certainly be a decent chunk of those who will need ICU help as well.

So 300,000 beds probably required as a minimum theoretical peak for everyone, we currently have a capacity of 100,000. So we have a 2/3rds shortfall as it stands. 

I don't know how quick it is to make makeshift wards and convert arenas/fields into wards for Corona victims, but we are going to be well short of beds at peak unless something really drastic happens...and as I said, I have been deliberately very conservative with peak numbers as well % of people needing to be hospitalised in the first place.

Its very scary and eye opening, especially for the older generation.

[swebby]

22 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

We can all discuss things without getting into an argument i'm sure. I added my thoughts about the UK policy and people have disagreed - that's fine. It's good to critically analyse things and discuss. In the current political climate, things are getting very polarized and a lot of people refuse to discuss or debate anything anymore. 

Agree. 

Just pointing out that pandemic control is not the job of virology, they are not medics, their job is in trying to find a cure or vaccine route.  

Epidemiology is the field that is responsible, and by it's nature has to include aspects of behavioral science.

Edited March 13, 2020 by swebby

[Beverley Lass]

May Local elections and Mayoral elections postponed until next year

[Summer Sun]

Local elections in May in England postponed until 2021

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

 

Question for everyone - Why the low death rate for those countries compared to us when they are all roughly on the same path as us numbers wise? Better standard of living/life expectancy? Younger average age for population? Less older people contracting the virus than here? Government’s strict measures they have taken? 

There seems to be a lag between catching and dying it, most people recover after 5-7 days, but as CMO said yesterday there is a percentage that then seem to get worse at this point and die from that point onwards.

All those countries only had a surge in the last few days (so have we, but we did have a trickle of cases right from February) so there just be a lag and there maybe deaths to come. Also, to be fair, Scandinavia does tend to have good health services.

Edited March 13, 2020 by kold weather

[Stabilo19]

45 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Italy have released data for deaths by age brackets in the Lombardy region

• 0-9 - No deaths
• 10-19 - No deaths
• 20-29 - No deaths
• 30 to 39 - 1 death (0.1%)
• 40 to 49 - 1 death (0.1%)
• 50-59 - 14 deaths (1.7%)
• 60-69 - 65 deaths (8.1%)
• 70-79 - 274 deaths (34.2%)
• 80-89 - 355 deaths (44.3%)
• 90+ - 75 deaths (9.3%)

18 deaths were not reported - Total deaths so far 803

For comparison, this is the data from the large Chinese study released a few weeks ago (when there were 44,672 cases)

• 0-9 - No deaths
• 10-19 - 1 death (0.1%)
• 20-29 - 7 deaths (0.7%)
• 30-39 - 18 deaths (1.8%)
• 40-49 - 38 deaths (3.7%)
• 50-59 - 130 deaths (12.7%)
• 60-69 - 309 deaths (30.2%)
• 70-79 - 312 deaths (30.5%)
• 80+ - 208 deaths (20.3%)

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

[mountain shadow]

Absolute bedlam in my local Sainsburys there, never seen anything like it. All pasta, pasta sauce, beans, toilet roll, kitchen roll, hand wash  paracetamol, rice, tins of soup. Cleared out.

Massive queues. Far worse than Christmas.

 

[Summer Sun]

Eduardo Bolsonaro now says he's tested negative for Corona and has spoken to the White House. It comes hours after it was reported he'd tested positive

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

For comparison, this is the data from the large Chinese study released a few weeks ago (when there were 44,672 cases)

• 0-9 - No deaths
• 10-19 - 1 death (0.1%)
• 20-29 - 7 deaths (0.7%)
• 30-39 - 18 deaths (1.8%)
• 40-49 - 38 deaths (3.7%)
• 50-59 - 130 deaths (12.7%)
• 60-69 - 309 deaths (30.2%)
• 70-79 - 312 deaths (30.5%)
• 80+ - 208 deaths (20.3%)

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

It does suggest that younger people are more relisiant but eventually it may have some sort of impact on younger people, especially as hospitals start to get overwhelmed.

[Summer Sun]

Radio 1’s Big Weekend in Dundee cancelled

[Stabilo19]

 

[northwestsnow]

51 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Interesting. I saw a tweet from a journalist saying they are now deciding to save 20 year olds at the expense of 30 year olds. From those figures that means that journalist was outright lying to cause mass panic.

I saw that too ...

I think it is really important we are careful what we believe from unofficial 'sources' ...