Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[damianslaw]

Going to take a mini-break from model watching over the easter holiday period as not expecting much change in the model output for the foreseeable. The models are showing a predominantly settled spell apart from a bit of rain or showers most likely Sunday and Monday, and becoming much cooler. Early next week looks like bringing further air frosts, thereafter heights drop down from the north and begin to pull in some warmer uppers again.

All eyes on the PV and whether it anticipated break up will result in a shake up in the overall pattern remains to be seen, but there does seem an increasing propensity for heights to build further north and hence we could be exposed to something colder and more unsettled in time.

[Methuselah]

Yes pur..lease!

   

[Frosty.]

I gotta say if settled is your thang, you will lurve the GEFS 12z mean, especially in the mid / longer term because high pressure is the dominant feature.

Edited April 10, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Allseasons-Si]

The ICON reminds me of this little cute fella,a summer rabbit...

because the charts are showing some beautiful weather to be had in the next week to ten days and maybe beyond,just a blip come Mon with some cooler weather from the NE then high pressure builds back in,and maybe just maybe there could even be a plume of warmer air ahead of a trough sitting out west which could throw up some surprises as in terms of some thundery showers/downpours in places,i like to think so anyway...

...but more importantly stay safe all and just hope that this virus recedes so we can all enjoy the parks,walking,beaches,,sporting etc and more importantly...storm chasing 

[mb018538]

 

ECM is turning very warm again by next weekend after a cool start. Temperatures heading back to the mid 20s, perhaps upper 20s by Sunday with a southerly plume coming up from North Africa and 850s around 12c in the south.

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by mb018538

[shaky]

Fantastic ecm this evening!warm and sunny pretty much throughout!expect the gfs to come on board i think in the next few runs!!what a spring we are having so far!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM is as Frank carson would say....

There could be a thundery plume if that came off,days 9/10.

i know we are stuck in at home but this is great weather to enjoy IMBY and yours

 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ECM is as Frank carson would say....

There could be a thundery plume if that came off,days 9/10.

i know we are stuck in at home but this is great weather to enjoy IMBY and yours

 

It's the way yer tell em! 

[Don]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

 

ECM is turning very warm again by next weekend after a cool start. Temperatures heading back to the mid 20s, perhaps upper 20s by Sunday with a southerly plume coming up from North Africa and 850s around 12c in the south.

 

I'm beginning to wonder if this April could come close to the 2011 all time record or even beat it?!

[Singularity]

2nd run in a row from ECM that becomes impressively warm, possibly even warmer than this current spell for England and Wales.

UKMO's moved more or less in line with ECM having been halfway between it and GFS in the 00z suite.

It's traded place with GEM, which has moved from ECM-like to GFS-like. However - it's not as unsettled for S. England, as it keeps the low shallower and not quite as intrusive.

ICON is the model now staying at halfway house.

An interesting situation with the Iberian low mid-late next week. One to watch and wonder about while we enjoy the long weekend (as best we can, in the circumstances).

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

I'm beginning to wonder if this April could come close to the 2011 all time record or even beat it?!

Another spectacular CET win by Lettucing Gutted? Well, we all thought it was 'impossible', last time!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I don't wanna get any of you excited just yet regarding the current weather, and indeed the promising outlook... But cast ya minds back to the same time in 2018....lots of settled and warm conditions if I remember.... Could it be magic, or could I be talking tosh.... As Mike Poole always says.... We will see. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Man With Beard]

Absolutely textbook heatwave position on the ECM D8:

Trough west of Iberia pumping heat from the south. High pressure nicely balance just to the east of the UK, Atlantic air being shunted well to the north.

Leading to this rather toasty chart at D9:

Making "usual" adjustments to ECM raw output on temperatures, next Sunday currently looking like a 28C day, only few April days have been hotter than that. No doubt that will change, what with it being 9 days away. However, worth noting that although the op sits at the top of the ensemble envelope for temperatures, it is bang in the middle of the mean chart for the set-up:

Potential for a very special month - shame it is under the current circumstances.

[mb018538]

 

It’s not even a huge outlier (though it is at this stage) - even the mean is up to about 8c. Crazy stuff.

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Absolutely textbook heatwave position on the ECM D8:

Trough west of Iberia pumping heat from the south. High pressure nicely balance just to the east of the UK, Atlantic air being shunted well to the north.

Leading to this rather toasty chart at D9:

Making "usual" adjustments to ECM raw output on temperatures, next Sunday currently looking like a 28C day, only few April days have been hotter than that. No doubt that will change, what with it being 9 days away. However, worth noting that although the op sits at the top of the ensemble envelope for temperatures, it is bang in the middle of the mean chart for the set-up:

Potential for a very special month - shame it is under the current circumstances.

 

[Zak M]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Making "usual" adjustments to ECM raw output on temperatures, next Sunday currently looking like a 28C day, only few April days have been hotter than that. No doubt that will change, what with it being 9 days away. However, worth noting that although the op sits at the top of the ensemble envelope for temperatures, it is bang in the middle of the mean chart for the set-up:

We should know what that means at night, then? 

[Allseasons-Si]

Absolutely stonkingly gorgeous ECM mean at day ten

me am goin to build a mini beach IMBY

[Allseasons-Si]

Well it doesn't get much better than this folk's if it's warm and dry you are after,i have left the cold camp now

cpc days 6-10/8-14

what a spring we are having at the moment

[Daniel*]

For what it’s worth ECM has 25C next Sunday on Hampshire/Surrey border considering it was 4-5C too cool today for a few and had 20C for Heathrow ended up 24.2C, you can add 3C to that at least. The April 1949 record may be threatened. This April is turning into an extraordinary month...much cooler start to next week tho! 

Edited April 10, 2020 by Daniel*

[Djdazzle]

April record definitely under threat if the ECM 12z is correct. It was so close to falling in 2018. Might even hit 30C. Long way off though.

[mb018538]

ECM 00z again looks very warm next weekend. UKMO looks to be heading down a similar path, but GFS op is once more an ensemble outlier so will be ignored today. The GFS ensembles much more focused on warm weather (mean up to 8c). Form horse is getting warm again by next weekend for sure.

Edited April 11, 2020 by mb018538

[Frosty.]

Another cracker of an ECM 0z operational, following a brief cooler blip there’s plenty more high pressure and warmth on the menu..so at least there is some good news!

 

Edited April 11, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z...I like it. I like it!

    

[shaky]

Gfs aint letting go and is being stubborn as always!you can see its moving towards the ecm slowly early on but at the standard slow pace!!

[Methuselah]

It's a cracker!

    

[Methuselah]

Not a bad end to the 06Z either; not that warm, but warm enough to pretty-much guarantee a warm April CET?

    

And, hopefully, we'll nae have to contend with any of those rogue blobs of tPV, that hampered Spring 2019?