Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Frosty.]

The longer term Gfs 6z operational is indeed a sight for sore eyes in terms of warmth!..in the meantime, it’s gradually turning cooler & more unsettled (cyclonic) with some very weclome rain and hopefully some thunderstorms following such a dry April for many!

Edited April 25, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Frosty.]

Looking through the GEFS 6z perturbations I get a feeling there is potential we could at least flirt with some continental warmth in very early May in terms of a long southerly draw with a trough anchored to the southwest which would mean quite a humid / thundery / plumey few days / nights at least..perhaps even a direct hit with something very warm / hot!...ok wishful thinking maybe because I love plums..I mean plumes!

 

Edited April 25, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

So, what to make of the 12Z? Possibly heavy, thundery showers (or longer periods of rain) anytime from tomorrow onwards,but a plume non-event around Day 9, and ending with typical May weather with mostly typical May temperatures...

Day 9:        

Day 12:      

Day 15:      

Plenty of time for the heat to expand!!

[Zak M]

Evening all, the GFS 18z shows a brief spell of high pressure to build in to most parts of the UK after the spell of unsettled weather right at the start of May. It shows a low not being too far away either so it could spark some thunderstorms as it bumps into the warm and humid air. However, after the brief spell of high pressure, it then becomes more unsettled with more rain.

Would certainly like to see a plume though at the start of May, although we will have to wait and see. Have a good evening everyone.

               

[Frosty.]

Some of you may have read my earlier post banging on about the GEFS 6z and my thoughts on the potential for an early May plume..and guess what, the 12z seems to have built on that potential a bit more...that’s enough trumpet blowing from me today!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Nice one Karl... Time for a bit more trumpet blowing me thinks... ECM showing a potential plume by around day 8...one to watch for sure... So something perhaps to look forward to..... Enjoy your weekends and stay safe all. 

Edited April 25, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Zak M]

It looks like the ECM is going for a more settled and warm approach for majority of the British Isles at the start of May!

         

Edited April 25, 2020 by Zak M

[mb018538]

ECM turns very warm for a period, but requires the low to be in a very precise position to draw up that warm air. Other models not showing this at the moment, but something to keep an eye on.

What we can say though....is very unsettled through next week, and temperatures more like you’d expect for the end of April/start of May.

[damianslaw]

Marked shift taking place tomorrow, after nearly 6 weeks of predominantly settled fine weather in the main, a slow descent into something much more unsettled is on the cards. Pressure will be lowering through tomorrow from the north, and more so early next week, the north will see some coll air from a long drawn northerly source, this eventually making its way into the south by Tuesday. Showers or patchy rain tomorrow for some, again on Monday, some appreciable rain forecast for Tuesday, for some the first substantive rain since mid March.

As we end the month and enter May, a cyclonic pattern with the trough held over the UK, then some suggestions we see a rise of pressure build in behind the trough once it clears to the east, with the longwave trough stalling somewhat out west, hence a southerly warm draw, but is a precarious set up, and the trough could easily be further east or align in a manner that pulls in a long drawn SW fetch instead. Either way, no suggestion of a return to the lengthy settled conditions of late, plume events and southerlies are not good holding patterns for such weather - quick breakdown.

[Frosty.]

Well it’s a new day but there is still the chance of a brief thundery plume event in around a week’s time according to the GEFS 0z!

[Methuselah]

GFS 00Z a tad more favourable for next weekend, with the Atlantic trough in a more advantageous position:

    

And Monday would really open the door to opportunity!

    

But after that, it's normal (if possibly slightly warm) normality:

    

[Methuselah]

GFS 06Z still suggests a warm three days, starting next Saturday:

    

Hopefull, the shape of things to come?

[Zak M]

Good afternoon all.

Could this be our first Spanish plume of the year? 

      

      

Edited April 26, 2020 by Zak M

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Good afternoon all.

Could this be our first Spanish plume of the year? 

      

      

Its defo one to keep an eye on 

[Djdazzle]

It’s a definite possibility. More likely than it looked 24 hours ago.

[Methuselah]

As can be seen from today's 06Z ensembles, the operational run is on the warm side; the T850 mean, however, never falls below zero. So, hopefully, temps should be well up to normal, if not a tad above :

    

[Zak M]

Looks a bit wet on the 7th! 

[Allseasons-Si]

The ICON doesn't finish too bad,i just hope it's a trend

meanwhile..,the gfs produces this,a mini hurricane in the BoB at day ten.

 

 

[mb018538]

Still a possibility of some sort of warmer plume being pushed our way in around a weeks time....but the bulk of the heat looks like staying in mainland Europe. The outlook unsettled otherwise.

[Zak M]

Evening all, still the chances of a Spanish plume next weekend after this weeks upcoming unsettled weather. After the plume the GFS 12z indicates the possibility of more settled weather with the chance of some heavy rain in the SW as it has a low hovering around the Bay of Biscay on day 10, but after that is showing signs for more settled weather with temperatures around average. Enjoy your evening.

                        

[Methuselah]

12Z ensembles not looking too bad, I guess? I'll leave it to Karl to post the stonker run!

    

[Man With Beard]

15 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

12Z ensembles not looking too bad, I guess? I'll leave it to Karl to post the stonker run!

    

I'll oblige

But a few runs get close to the magic plume this evening. Will the ECM join in? Close!

 

[Zak M]

Plumetastic! 

   

[MATTWOLVES 3]

We have some unsettled Conditions on the way for this week... Tuesday could see a low pressure very close to the South, bringing strong winds and rain, but not sure of the progress North of this feature.. Could be a channel islands affair only... So basically it's more mixed than recently with showers or some longer spells of rain at times, hopefully some sunny spells too... Towards the end of next week and more especially beyond, we import warmer conditions back in from the South, so we could see low 20s or higher with any sunnier moments.. Low pressure anchored to the W/SW could bring a risk of some thundery surprises also... One to watch for sure... I also noticed the countryfile update was going for a warm up too.. So a bit of a watering for the gardens before a gradual warm up later..... That's all folks.. Do stay safe. 

Edited April 26, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Allseasons-Si]

Well i am trying to get every little detail i can to try and find some good news on the weather front,yes it looks like it's going to become unsettled through next week but what about next weekend and beyond,yes i know it's some distance away and anything can change but as of here and now is whats on offer at this time:-

firstly the ECM ens and rainfall from the 00z(12z not out yet)

it does look to cool off from Tues but slowly recovers through next weekend into the following week,rainfall looks to be on the increase too

the SLP's(sea level pressure) for my local and London show a rise in pressure from the 5th so maybe settling down and hopefully the temps will repond from this

 

the latest from cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb anomaly charts show a low/trough to our SW possibly lifting out in the extended

so in a nut shell,becoming cooler with showers/rain about through this week thanks to a low west/SW of the UK pushing through at times then later on the low retreats west hopefully to enable some warmer weather from the S/SW,a possibility of some quiet warm plume-ish type weather could be on the cards from next weekend and the following week

it's only April(just) and what a month it has been,so there is plenty of time for plume events to come through the summer months and i hope that we will be free from this prison lock-down by then

enjoy the rest of your evening folks and stay safe.