Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[mb018538]

ECM is truly dreadful at the end....we end up with the UK high moving north to form a block, and with the Azores high squeezed down south, the low off the eastern seaboard is heading straight for the UK in a day or two. I’m really hoping it’s a cool outlier. 

[Gowon]

Shall we bin the ECM tonight? 

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Shall we bin the ECM tonight? 

In all seriousness, it’s lost the plot.

Edited May 14, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Mr Frost]

22 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM isn’t great either. So it could just be a 2-3 day job of warm-ish temperatures, followed by who-knows what at the moment.

Spot on - that sums it up perfect at the moment.

UKMO 144h

 

ECM 144h

Not too far apart! (Not good news from viewing the rest of the ECM!)

I would take a guess at Wednesday/Thursday reaching the mid 20’s in the South and low 20’s in the North.

Tell you what...working from home at the moment has its benefits - extra tab opened on the laptop/phone to follow the runs/models in real time on a weekday! 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Gowon]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

In all seriousness, it’s lost the plot

I hope so, but I wouldn't say it's lost the plot.. There are too many variables involved to make any meaningful predictions plus, it's FI 

[Djdazzle]

I don’t believe the ECM has this right. It just unravels far too quickly. Look how it explodes that little low pressure system. It’s that which seems to cause the problem. Let’s wait for the ensembles but it’s fairly clear that it will be a big outlier.

[Cheshire Freeze]

No idea what people are expecting. We're looking at a generally mixed early summer IMO with useable periods alternating with unsettled. 

The output is broadly following this theme between days 7-10 with the potential for troughing to influence the UK weather.

[Mike Poole]

Well that was some ragbag of runs, the 12z, wasn't it?  

Well all model output has to be viewed in the context of what is actually possible given global and regional drivers, doesn't it?  

CFS has AAM remaining reasonably strong in positive territory for the foreseeable, so no effect of tendency towards La Niña showing yet - of course it is only a model itself, albeit one which couples the sea.  So positive heights in our region should continue to be possible by this measure.

Cool SSTs continue to exist in the Western Atlantic, trough magnet!

With that in mind, I cannot fathom what is going through the computer chips at ECM, to deliver this at T240:

Will eat my face mask if that happens!  

JMA at T192:

I think this is boiling down to uncertainty about how close the Atlantic systems are getting to the block, and it is all playing out in the vicinity of the UK.  So it will take a while to resolve, but my money's on the settled weather or plume scenario winning out rather than the Atlantic...we will see....

Edited May 14, 2020 by Mike Poole

[summer blizzard]

Certainly disagreement, GFS does not end the settled spell until day 12, Euro at day 7. 

[Frosty.]

Comparing like for like...well almost, I think I prefer yesterday’s ECM 12z!..out of reactions again..darn it..lol

Edited May 14, 2020 by JON SNOW

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think the op was a little of an outlier, the means from both GFS and ECM have been pretty solid today.. Keep calm gang, I still reckon we will have the inflatable pool outside very soon..

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean at T144 and t240:

Clearly there's some uncertainty, but the balance of probability looks good still for a decent settled spell, until a majority of model runs and ensembles tell otherwise!

[mb018538]

 

Relax folks. The ECM did indeed lose the plot from day 7-10, far too unsettled. Mean looks decent enough, and with 850s up between 8-10c by the middle of next week, much warmer too. 

[Djdazzle]

Last night’s ECM was a hot outlier whereas tonight’s was at the bottom end, which made the contrast that much starker.

[Daniel*]

32 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Relax folks. The ECM did indeed lose the plot from day 7-10, far too unsettled. Mean looks decent enough, and with 850s up between 8-10c by the middle of next week, much warmer too. 

We know midweek is going to be warm that’s in bag. Next Thursday on ECM 12z

There will be no plume I think folk need to get that out their heads.

EPS not so dissimilar with main blocking centred Scandi however Atlantic intrusion is held back by Azores help, finely balanced even with mean especially further W one goes. Westerlies v near while they may not be so much moisture laden like op. 

 

 

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Daniel*

[mb018538]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

We know midweek is going to be warm that’s in bag. Next Thursday on ECM 12z

There will be no plume I think folk need to get that out their heads.

EPS not so dissimilar with main blocking centred Scandi however Atlantic intrusion is held back by Azores help, finely balanced even with mean especially further W one goes. Westerlies v near while they may not be so much moisture laden like op. 

 

 

 

Let’s hope so. Everything depends on wind direction, GFS at the same time has mid to high teens. ECM looks great.

[damianslaw]

Yesterday all hail the ECM and bewail the GFS, the latter surely an outlier, today other way round.. doesn't give you much faith in the models longer term.

In the short term the atlantic knocking on the door of the ridge, successful in the north for a time, then kicked aside early next week, before it wants to have another go this time from the SW. GFS yesterday was aligned with jetstream profile forecasts showing low pressure moving through from the SW, won't be to surprised to see it backtrack again to such a scenario in future runs.

The flip flops are still beyond the 7 day timeframe, and there is uncertainty how far west the atlantic trough will position itself against heights which look like quickly shifting eastwards. 

 

[Methuselah]

GEFS 00Z ensembles looking none-too exciting this morning...But could be a lot worse!

    

    

Anywho, toodlehoo, must dash...one thinks this morn will be really quite spiffing?

[Djdazzle]

GFS mean at 240 looking a lot better than the op though.

ECM is also a good run, especially the further south and east you are.

Edited May 15, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM is a beauty at day ten (always day ten) 

now that's a plume

Edited May 15, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Singularity]

Part-cause of the modelling difficulty is in fact the potential for a tropical cyclone developing east of Florida in the next few days to merge with an Atlantic trough as it goes ex-tropical.

ECM 00z does that, hence the very deep trough for the time of year on D8. Some GFS runs have also tried that out in the past few days.

In classic fashion, those GFS runs had the deep trough powering NE to bring a westerly regime to the UK, but ECM’s take involves trough disruption and resultant ridge building across the UK and Europe.

Both plausible outcomes if the TC gets involved. If it doesn’t... anyone’s guess really. GFS 00z & prior 18z show the uncertainty there very well.

[draztik]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ECM is a beauty at day ten (always day ten) 

now that's a plume

 

the EC mean for the same timeframe tells the op to stop dancing up the garden path! 

[Djdazzle]

Huge scatter beyond 144 today. Almost all options on the table. Don’t think any model has a clue.

[mb018538]

 

ECM off the boil again today. Looking a bit more unsettled towards the end of next week.

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

ECM off the boil again today. Looking a bit more unsettled towards the end of next week.

Huge scatter in there.