North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards

[iand61]

Our best chance usually comes from a straight westerly with anything north of westerly tending to push the heavier stuff further down towards Greater Manchester and the Peak District.

Obviously altitude helps as a westerly doesn’t often give cold enough uppers but given the right conditions and it’s bingo for us.

This came from a straight westerly but it was certainly a day of the higher the better and further down the valley it was wet with barely a covering whilst we got almost a foot of snow in a six hour streamer of showers.

[Backtrack]

Well tonight is the closest we can get to viewing the Jupiter and Saturn alignment event. I’ve just been out and attempted a few photos with my iPhone 12 Pro Max. Quality night shots. But it’s just a bit too bright towards the horizon, such a shame. They’re setting at 18:24 too, so it’s a narrow window. Clear skies tomorrow morning will be at a super premium. I’ve got a couple of shots. If you zoom in enough you can see the rings of Saturn’s outline. Would only let me use a 2 second aperture though due to how bright it was. It goes up to 10. Will try again later. 

Edited December 20, 2020 by Backtrack

[Frost HoIIow]

Nothing mild about these ensembles. Once again things look promising. Tomorrow could be the last day in double figures for a while. 

[Snow free zone]

Cant believe its 10 years since we got the heaviest snowfall we've had here in my lifetime and potentially for over 80 years if my dads memory was correct. We had snow here for 5 consecutive nights giving some depths normally reserved for those higher up and well inland  We actually had a more sustained snow covering than the frontal snow event of feb 1996 (think the date is correct)

Can't help but notice that for those nearer the coast this just doesnt have the oomph at the moment to give snowfall. Needs to be a fair bit colder from my experience especially when you factor in the westerly element in the wind. 

Nice to at least have a bit of seasonal weather to look at rather than the incessant rain and greyness that has dominated for such a long time. 

 

[cheshire snow]

Oh hello what is this I see Meto text forecast for Xmas day

"A few showers perhaps a little snow"

Don't share this though as the uppers won't be cold enough 

C.S

Edited December 21, 2020 by cheshire snow

[itsnowjoke]

Well great start to my Christmas I have to self isolate till the 27th of December as I’ve been near someone at work who has tested positive for that blooming virus 

[Kasim Awan]

The upcoming set up has potential for lower areas of the region. The hills could get very high amounts.

Low heights, forget any significant precipitation shadow. Lots of shortwave activity & slow moving precip. 

[Rain Lady]

And still it rains though mostly drizzle today.

This morning we had a total of 1959.6 mm for 2020.  Already the 2nd wettest in last 50 yr.   Just 1984.0mm  (in 2012) to beat the record wettest. 

Iceland -- us in the western hills of the UK, send our sympathies.  We have  similar battle against the warmed Atlantic's  wet airstreams.

State of emergency for Seyðisfjörður, Iceland as 550+ mm of rain and landslides brought significant damage - the whole town evacuated on Friday

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

---

A prolonged rain has brought more than 550 mm of rain across parts of the East Fjords, Iceland, and cause damaging landslides in the town of Seyðisfjörður.

 

[Weather-history]

 

If only....

[dodge]

I can see why it's not lighting the blue touch paper for model thread members who live in the south but hey some of our northern hills could get a bit of the white stuff before New Year ushers in.

[Day 10]

17 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

If only....

Dream setup but like you say if only. Shame it isn't for tomorrow, but mind you I still wouldn't trust it as we've had many systems shift south at the last minute. Remember the one a couple of years ago, amber warning 48 hours out only to disappear the next day. 

Edited December 21, 2020 by Day 10

[iand61]

1 hour ago, Day 10 said:

Dream setup but like you say if only. Shame it isn't for tomorrow, but mind you I still wouldn't trust it as we've had many systems shift south at the last minute. Remember the one a couple of years ago, amber warning 48 hours out only to disappear the next day. 

There’s no way our SE based members are going to give that one up without a fight.

I can hear the screams of Southerly correction already

[damianslaw]

9 hours ago, Snow free zone said:

Cant believe its 10 years since we got the heaviest snowfall we've had here in my lifetime and potentially for over 80 years if my dads memory was correct. We had snow here for 5 consecutive nights giving some depths normally reserved for those higher up and well inland  We actually had a more sustained snow covering than the frontal snow event of feb 1996 (think the date is correct)

Can't help but notice that for those nearer the coast this just doesnt have the oomph at the moment to give snowfall. Needs to be a fair bit colder from my experience especially when you factor in the westerly element in the wind. 

Nice to at least have a bit of seasonal weather to look at rather than the incessant rain and greyness that has dominated for such a long time. 

 

Are you mixing your memories with Jan 2010, here we had barely more than an inch cover on the ground by Christmas Eve 2010, and I don't recall any part of the NW having anything notably deep snow wise. Correct me if wrong.

[Snow free zone]

27 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Are you mixing your memories with Jan 2010, here we had barely more than an inch cover on the ground by Christmas Eve 2010, and I don't recall any part of the NW having anything notably deep snow wise. Correct me if wrong.

I probably am .... im losing the plot as i get older thats why i couldn't believe it was 10 years ago when i saw a couple of other posts recounting 2010. Was perhaps 2012/2013 ??? Crikey it doesn't snow that often here you'd think i could remember when it actually does  

[Steffan Leach]

On 19/12/2020 at 21:49, damianslaw said:

A better day than anticipated, there was a heavy shower mid afternoon, but otherwise just a few shortlived showers and some welcome sunny breaks at times. Became cooler in the afternoon after a very mild start.

Outlook thankfully looks much more promising, hopefully plenty of sunny spells and blue skies to cast aside the gloom, and a welcome return to frost, which we have not had much of at all this season so far. 

Still too early to call but Christmas Eve could be a lovely crisp winter's day, long time since we had a such a Christmas Eve, 2010 last one, but nowhere near as cold as then. I'd be happy to wake up to a frost, and have it lingering in sheltered spots all day with a max of say 4 degrees. Not to much to ask for is it?

I remember we had the exact same conditions as you mentioned on Xmas Eve 2 years ago here! Bright, cold and frosty. Xmas Day and Boxing Day 2018 was mild and cloudy though.

[Steffan Leach]

Not much snow for Xmas Day itself but looking generally quite wintery between Xmas Day and New Year which is more than we can say in recent years.

[Iceaxecrampon]

17 hours ago, Snow free zone said:

Cant believe its 10 years since we got the heaviest snowfall we've had here in my lifetime and potentially for over 80 years if my dads memory was correct. We had snow here for 5 consecutive nights giving some depths normally reserved for those higher up and well inland  We actually had a more sustained snow covering than the frontal snow event of feb 1996 (think the date is correct)

Can't help but notice that for those nearer the coast this just doesnt have the oomph at the moment to give snowfall. Needs to be a fair bit colder from my experience especially when you factor in the westerly element in the wind. 

Nice to at least have a bit of seasonal weather to look at rather than the incessant rain and greyness that has dominated for such a long time. 

 

Ah. The joys of the coast. 

2010 was a once in a generation and yes glad to be maybe free of the murk. 

Ok it’s only the iPhone. I’ve had a quick look at the GFS as well. 

Kirkstone anyone? 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Ah. The joys of the coast. 

2010 was a once in a generation and yes glad to be maybe free of the murk. 

Ok it’s only the iPhone. I’ve had a quick look at the GFS as well. 

Kirkstone anyone? 

Mmm Kirkstone very dicey in ice and snow, one of the first roads to close around here in such conditions.

I love the snow symbols. Would be great to have a decent snowfall between Christmas and New Year. It's happened on a few occasions such as 2000 and 2017, the former it stuck until New Year, the latter only settled for a few hours.

A word on current conditions, we gave a frost and it's 1 degrees and this is under cloud cover, a sure signal we have a polar airmass above. Current projected temps are an underestimation, the air will be colder and hence chances of snow high.

[Iceaxecrampon]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm Kirkstone very dicey in ice and snow, one of the first roads to close around here in such conditions.

I love the snow symbols. Would be great to have a decent snowfall between Christmas and New Year. It's happened on a few occasions such as 2000 and 2017, the former it stuck until New Year, the latter only settled for a few hours.

A word on current conditions, we gave a frost and it's 1 degrees and this is under cloud cover, a sure signal we have a polar airmass above. Current projected temps are an underestimation, the air will be colder and hence chances of snow high.

Easy - if you follow the Snowplough all the way from Limefitt like we did on a few occasions  - slow but soon got to Patterdale in one piece...!

Anyway Models are now very much approaching the reliable.

[A Face like Thunder]

What a pity we couldn't swop this morning's weather with last night's. Looking out last evening for the alignment of Jupiter and Saturn, but nothing except cloud and murk. Went down to the paper shop at 7am this morning, clear blue skies!

Rain last night between 10pm and 11pm was really heavy for a while, so everything was very wet underfoot this morning, but at least the blue skies have stayed with us so far.

 

[A Face like Thunder]

Is it my imagination or has the temperature dropped in the 3 hrs since 7am this morning? Sun is out and clear skies but now decidedly chilly, with car windscreens starting to mist up.

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, A Face like Thunder said:

What a pity we couldn't swop this morning's weather with last night's. Looking out last evening for the alignment of Jupiter and Saturn, but nothing except cloud and murk. Went down to the paper shop at 7am this morning, clear blue skies!

Rain last night between 10pm and 11pm was really heavy for a while, so everything was very wet underfoot this morning, but at least the blue skies have stayed with us so far.

 

Yes - only another 800 years.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Is it my imagination or has the temperature dropped in the 3 hrs since 7am this morning? Sun is out and clear skies but now decidedly chilly, with car windscreens starting to mist up.

Yes, clearing skies allowed temps to fall after sunrise, not unusual at this time of year, indeed quite normal for absolute min to be recorded about half hour after sunrise, in late December 9am, low solar heating means it takes a while for ground to heat up. Indeed under polar air, a min of 0 degrees at 9am can often return a max only 3 degrees around 1pm if skies stay clear and no change air mass, this looks like happening Christmas Eve, pity we cant shunt everything forward a day, to give a lovely cold frosty Christmas day and reasonable Boxing Day, the latter to which looks being thoroughly miserable but I guess we have z good Christmas eve and reasonable Christmas day , so 2 out of 3 very good.

[Iceaxecrampon]

12z GFS

Well this is for tonight  - tops at 600m?

[iand61]

Anyone else feel like they are living in a perpetual gloom fest or is it just a Pennine thing.