North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards

[The Northern Ramper]

Well I have a garden wall that has half a coat of snow on it, that’ll do

[The Enforcer]

31 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Well done on seeing snow in this region  but big fail from BBC and met office forecasters, no mention of snow for today in the forecasts, both of their credibility down the pan again!! 

Snow reported by relatives in Bramhall. Just seen the 3pm BBC nowcast and still no mention of falling snow whatsoever today, instead going on about somewhere else where it is sunny - 'only' a techncal White Xmas after all.

[Had Worse]

Gritters out on Mottram Moor A57 Hollingworth. Do they know something.?

[cheshire snow]

Afternoon 

Merry Christmas everyone 

Nice to see some recording a white christmas here in South Cheshire High cloud now building after a cold but sunny morning.hopefully will get to see some snow Sunday onwards.

C.S

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Gritters out on Mottram Moor A57 Hollingworth. Do they know something.?

Showers coming in off Irish Sea,

[Tom Montalbano]

Afternoon and a Merry Xmas to all North West Regional Members, from a South East interloper.

Liverpool and Manchester were 2 locations that figured in Category 6 (White Christmas), of my Winter Weather Predicting Competition. 

Can a North West Member confirm whether or not these 2 locations have had any Snow, so far?

Just a single Snowflake counts.

Much thanks.

TomSE12 

Edited December 25, 2020 by TomSE12

[The Northern Ramper]

Manchester has

[iand61]

Hope everyone had a good day and Father Christmas brought everything they asked for including for some at least, the added bonus of a bit of snow.

it’s a bit milder and drizzly here now, probably the precursor of tomorrow’s rain although it looks like with a bit of luck, we may just see a bit of wet snow in the mix.

After that though is anyone’s guess but if the current BBC forecast is to be believed, it dry here until new year.

can’t see it myself and I won’t be happy if we miss out on snow while others get buried but some hard frosts will do if it’s all that’s on offer.

one thing is for sure, it looks like a decent period of cold weather is on the cards.

 

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, iand61 said:

Hope everyone had a good day and Father Christmas brought everything they asked for including for some at least, the added bonus of a bit of snow.

it’s a bit milder and drizzly here now, probably the precursor of tomorrow’s rain although it looks like with a bit of luck, we may just see a bit of wet snow in the mix.

After that though is anyone’s guess but if the current BBC forecast is to be believed, it dry here until new year.

can’t see it myself and I won’t be happy if we miss out on snow while others get buried but some hard frosts will do if it’s all that’s on offer.

one thing is for sure, it looks like a decent period of cold weather is on the cards.

 

I think the charts do slightly flatter to deceive to be honest, there is a wrongful assumption of low pressure means bags of PPN and that is not always the case. Plus the same old argument of poor upper air temperatures is what setting this from being a classic cold period, such a shame really. 

Sunday looks showery but unless winds switch off shore(which they will during the night time period) then any wintry weather is likely to be reserved for higher ground, bit of uncertainty how much PPN there will be in the region on Sunday night but I say the further south and west you are in the region, the higher chance of seeing persistent PPN.

Like I say in the model thread, any snowfall is likely to be transient and not likely to stick around during daylight hours at lower levels. There is some excitement in terms of the unpredictability element to it all but I've seen better cold set ups meself. 

[Frost HoIIow]

After tomorrow's blip things are still looking very decent in my opinion. Certainly nothing to be despondent about. As the saying goes get the cold in and snow can crop up at short notice. It's been such a while since we had a cold spell like the one incoming that I almost forgot that saying myself!

Thank god we're not staring down the barrel of mild SWly winds and gloomy weather.

Decent ensembles with very little scatter on the 850s until at least 6th Jan & with chances of upgrades in the days ahead as the effects of the sudden stratospheric warming come into play we've got a few cards up our sleeve as well. 

 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Frost HoIIow

[Barmada_Casten]

The ramping on the model thread is obscene for what is essentially a bit of a cold spell, with nothing significant. Once again, any decent snowfall will be in the east, Kent etc the usual places. We as usual here will get the rough end of the deal and get nothing. I am bored of it to be honest - 30 years of this a absolute crap. In the 2019 south west snowstorm I was in a small in North Devon that received snowfall where everywhere around us got record breaking amounts. Last year I went to the Baltic’s in January as I was craving coke and snow and they head there earnest winter for decades. When the snow hits the rest of the country it will be a total media blackout for me that’s for certain. Anyway the punchline is the north west ain’t getting anything firing this so do t get your hopes up! 

[Weather-history]

I think yesterday showed what could happen, no one expected to see snow falling anywhere in our region. I expect it to be mostly dry, chilly, some frost, how severe will depend obviously on cloud amounts and wind, Don't think there will be much wintry stuff away from the hills when the colder air comes in after the fronts moved through over night.

 

 

[Chris.R]

Just looking at the latest WRF and it is showing  a period of snow early Monday morning which wasn’t showing yesterday. That could be  very interesting indeed.

[Day 10]

Latest ICON is mixed, possibly a few wintry showers about tomorrow for some.

Unfortunately the latest area of snow for Monday heads our way then pivots in the Irish Sea down toward Wales & the South West.

Still time for change though as all models have differing tracks.

[iand61]

After a couple of decent days it’s back to the default setting of dark, damp and drizzly crap.

never mind at least parts of the region had a white Christmas of sorts, just hope it’s not as good as it gets for snow this winter.

[Day 10]

Just read the Met forecast, tomorrow actually sounds a lot more interesting than I thought.

Sunday:

Cold and bright on Sunday with sunny spells and heavy, wintry showers. Becoming cloudier as showers turns more frequent through the day. Breezy at first but winds steadily fade. Maximum temperature 4 °C.

[A Face like Thunder]

Yupp, my good lady and I are stepping out into the great outdoors for a walk, with hundreds of others all walking in splendid isolation, before the gathering storm clouds disgorge their contents this afternoon/ evening.  

[damianslaw]

A few light snow flurries and flakes late morning, then sleety cold rain. Technically a white Christmas. There was a hard frost early on, but very dry cold so not much ice about and the frost wasn't hoar like.

Today looking very poor later on heavy rain and gales, forecast thereafter is cold with further frost and possibly some snow, at this stage greatest risk Sunday night, Monday morning. Late Decembers of 2000, and 2001 are coming back to me, also 2008. All three brought a cold end to the year. Of the three the charts look like 2001.

However, longer term 2008 and 2009 come more to mind, with locked in cold prospects as we enter the New Year, 2001 was different as that was a high pressure overhead set up that didn't look very robust. I'll go as far as to say 2009 best match!

[iand61]

5 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Just read the Met forecast, tomorrow actually sounds a lot more interesting than I thought.

Sunday:

Cold and bright on Sunday with sunny spells and heavy, wintry showers. Becoming cloudier as showers turns more frequent through the day. Breezy at first but winds steadily fade. Maximum temperature 4 °C.

Yep looking promising although my part of the region usually needs more of a westerly element to get the showers.

let’s see what tomorrow brings though, hopefully at least some of the region can see some falling and lying snow and for the others, let’s hope their wait is minimal.

[Spah1]

we have a ticket! 

[Rain Lady]

Yes we had a few flakes of snow in a midday shower here on the 25th.  Didn't stick.

Of more immediate interest is the rain to come in Bella.

Picked up 8.0 mm from the manual gauge this morning.

Just another 10 mm needed to beat the 50yr max record of 1984 mm. 

Extra incredible is the possibility of reaching 2000 mm for this year. 

[Chris.R]

45 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Just read the Met forecast, tomorrow actually sounds a lot more interesting than I thought.

Sunday:

Cold and bright on Sunday with sunny spells and heavy, wintry showers. Becoming cloudier as showers turns more frequent through the day. Breezy at first but winds steadily fade. Maximum temperature 4 °C.

Yep I really do think early Monday morning looks very promising as well I have a feeling it will hit us in the west of the region. Mettb have issued a warning for it now as well.

[The Northern Ramper]

Lovely jubbly

[iand61]

37 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

we have a ticket! 

Nice to see the warning, just hope it delivers for the region now

[Deep Snow please]

56 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

we have a ticket! 

I've been summoned I see..... 

 

Synoptics for the next few weeks look promising but by no means in the bank yet. Any sustained snowfall would be welcome. 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Deep Snow please