North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards

[carl1980]

Stuck under the streamer from Southport,still developing in the Irish sea lots of rain around Merseyside today

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

@Day 10 will take a look just a huge concern for me when the Meto are not on board they make mistakes just like anyone I'm still waiting for the Torpedo LOL thats not a dig at Chino intriguing too watch this unfold,but like you there are only so many kicks to the plums you can take and after the let downs and the chases of years gone by you will understand my concerns,let's see what happens in the next seven days.

C.S

Understandable  

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

@Day 10 will take a look just a huge concern for me when the Meto are not on board they make mistakes just like anyone I'm still waiting for the Torpedo LOL thats not a dig at Chino intriguing too watch this unfold,but like you there are only so many kicks to the plums you can take and after the let downs and the chases of years gone by you will understand my concerns,let's see what happens in the next seven days.

C.S

Met Office forecast flips and flops alot, and I don't rank it as high as I used to. 

Back to today weather, dank and dreary, very Decemberish. More dark days before christmad type weather ahead, days when we don't see much natural light at all.

[cheshire snow]

So the GFS 06z is a bad run

Q all the "told you so Rubbish"

C.S

[A Face like Thunder]

14 hours ago, carl1980 said:

Stuck under the streamer from Southport,still developing in the Irish sea lots of rain around Merseyside today

Pictures of flooding around Bootle last night on BBC NW News. Times reports a shade over 17mm of rain yesterday in Liverpool which, although more than we got in the south of the region, does not strike me as being an amount which would lead to flooding.  Unless it was cumulative? 

[Chris.R]

57.5 mm of rain yesterday. No rain today. 5.7°C currently. Doesn’t look like we will have another air frost for at least the next week.

[Chris.R]

Crosby Met Office station only recorded 17 mm yesterday it’s true. I don’t have a working rain gauge at my old Crosby station anymore  but I’m replacing it in a few weeks so can compare data.

Edited December 9, 2020 by Chris.R

[Day 10]

What charts! Anyone remember this? I remember Feb 91 but not this one which I find strange, maybe the coastal strip missed out and didn't get much?

Edited December 10, 2020 by Day 10

[cheshire snow]

@Day 10that chart would be epic for Christmas week unfortunately Meto still not interested.

C.S

[Day 10]

20 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

@Day 10that chart would be epic for Christmas week unfortunately Meto still not interested.

C.S

Week leading upto Christmas

Remaining unsettled to start the period, with a mixture blustery showers and brighter spells for most of the UK, potentially falling as snow over mountains. The showers, accompanied by milder temperatures, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further north and east will experience drier spells. Windy conditions expected with potential coastal gales. Towards the end of the period, there is a chance of more settled conditions, mainly in the east and northeast. Outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times, mainly in the northern and western parts. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels at times. Temperatures are likely to be around average for this time of year, however, there remains chance of turning colder again later in the period.

They are about as confident as the current Everton team though mate, I think saying 'not interested' is misleading. The second paragraph covers all bases really.

[Day 10]

Meanwhile, absolutely belting down! 

[iand61]

19 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Meanwhile, absolutely belting down! 

Yep there looks to be a narrowish band of heavy rain heading over the region at the moment.

no doubt it’ll start peeeeing down here within the next half hour or so.

Edited December 10, 2020 by iand61
Spelling mistake

[cheshire snow]

7 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Week leading upto Christmas

Remaining unsettled to start the period, with a mixture blustery showers and brighter spells for most of the UK, potentially falling as snow over mountains. The showers, accompanied by milder temperatures, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further north and east will experience drier spells. Windy conditions expected with potential coastal gales. Towards the end of the period, there is a chance of more settled conditions, mainly in the east and northeast. Outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times, mainly in the northern and western parts. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels at times. Temperatures are likely to be around average for this time of year, however, there remains chance of turning colder again later in the period.

They are about as confident as the current Everton team though mate, I think saying 'not interested' is misleading. The second paragraph covers all bases really.

I think back to 2010 when all the models and Meto were all over that cold spell and it all counted down to zero and we know the results.Now we know Meto has made errors like last years fantasy BFTE which was in there updates for weeks.in recent years when these fantasy wintry charts appeared and this place has been in meltdown Meto never showed much interest we were even guided by fergie weather a professional forecaster but still the cold brigade in the other thread would not have it one of two reasons he sensible packed it in what a loss.I want nothing more than a good cold spell but no matter how good the models without the professionals on board I don't hold out much hope.

What I would like the Meto outlook to say is

"Turning significantly colder with snow showers down to low levels"

I have no idea how this is going to turn out I hope for the best but fear for the worst until Meto come on board.

C.S

Edited December 11, 2020 by cheshire snow

[Frost HoIIow]

Yes until the Met Office are more consistent about a proper cold spell I'm not going to be taken in by any long range stratospheric developments in other threads by the usual suspects. The Met office are our national weather service so I take them a bit more seriously than people like nick Sussex, Tamara, Bluearmy, Steve Murr or Chionomanic etc. No disrespect to them but whilst these people are evidently knowledgeable they only see what they have access to. 

Who can forget GP's very bullish "Torpedo" in 2013-2014 but in the end it did not happen & was a very poor Winter. The Met have access to models that people in here don't. And for the most part those professional models are more accurate, not infallible mind you, what is at the end of the day? but they are better than what we get to see on meteociel or wetterzentrale. Been plenty of times we've been led down the garden path by these standard models, even very close to an event only for the Met to remain resolute nothing was going to happen and they were correct. Obviously they had their own models that outperformed what we see.

Edited December 11, 2020 by Frost HoIIow

[Day 10]

Morning Guys, it's Friday and the weekend is nearly upon us

 

Firstly, @cheshire snow & @Frost HoIIow I fully respect your views, glad we all have differing opinions at times otherwise this place would be very boring.

 

I still view the mid to longer range forecast from the Met as very much sitting on the fence not on board but not off board so to speak either.

I do not think you can compare predicting the 2010 cold spell to any possible cold spell as they will all evolve in their own different way.

 

My view still hasn't changed this morning, the main positives modeled at day 6 are a 1050 millibar Arctic High and a PV reluctant to sit were it usually does. The main negative is the stubbornness of the Euro Heights to dissipate to allow the pattern to move south & east ushering in a colder flow.

I'm still hopeful to see better/colder modeling of the Christmas period around about the 18th/19th, if I'm wrong then so be it as 90-95% of the time the Winter pattern is a default west to east anyway so it wouldn't be a surprise to anyone if that wins out.

 

At present this year the Northern Hemisphere looks very different to it's normal default pattern so let's see what transpires, as ever time will tell.

Have a good weekend

[Rain Lady]

Having picked up this morming's rain (8.6 mm)  at 9am, the total for 2020 is currently 1903.9 mm.  The record annual max over the last 50yrs is 1984.0 mm in 2012. 

Looking likely that the record will be beaten. 

Nothing alterered at this Met Office daily rainfall site -- same kit, same local environment throughout.

Interesting that 2020 and 2012 are significant low Arctic ice years --

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

NSIDC.ORG

 

[A Face like Thunder]

Wet at 7.30am this morning but dry and quite bright since then. More of the same dry weather forecast for tomorrow but Sunday might provide an opportunity for inroads to be made into Rain Lady's 80mm required to make it the wettest year in 50 in the SW Bowland Fells. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

On 08/12/2020 at 22:08, carl1980 said:

Stuck under the streamer from Southport,still developing in the Irish sea lots of rain around Merseyside today

Cheshire streamer day again, worst setup for southern parts

[dodge]

It's further north this time...I'm out delivering in it and its filthy...looking north west towards the fylde and its looks setup for lots more to come

[Alexis]

Well the rainfall radar bears no relation to the BBC forecast then! The video online is still on about how sunny it is in the west!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

30 minutes ago, dodge said:

It's further north this time...I'm out delivering in it and its filthy...looking north west towards the fylde and its looks setup for lots more to come

Aye perhaps winds a bit more WNW'ly

[A Face like Thunder]

1 hour ago, Alexis said:

Well the rainfall radar bears no relation to the BBC forecast then! The video online is still on about how sunny it is in the west!

Yes, I wondered about that when I walked in the rain to the paper shop at 7am this morning. However the rain has now cleared here in the south of the region and there are blue skies around, and (if the forecast is to be believed) we may even see a bit of sunshine this afternoon, before it all goes downhill again tomorrow. Hope on! 

[Rain Lady]

On and on forever raining.  100% cloud cover and clouds down on fells to about 900ft.  Nevetheless 3 hearty well wateproofed walkers went up the path at 10am.

So 10.2 mm picked up this morning at 9am.  Annual total now 1914.1mm.   1984.0 mm to beat for 50 yr record.

Always much snow and wintry anticipation on the Netweather threads.  But in our patch such conditions more likely January onwards and most common in Feb/March.

Roses and some summer annuais still happy here though sodden.    There is the old peppecorn rent agreement -  " A red rose at Christmas and a snow ball at midsummer"  -- in other words very unlikely, so rent waived.    This year though, red roses from the garden might be available.

[iand61]

Just had a 2 hour walk with the dog and it never stopped raining throughout and at times it was pretty heavy so if it’s the same up in the your part of the country and if tomorrow’s forecast comes off then your 50 year record should fall in a matter of hours.

[cheshire snow]

So were are we 24 after some of the mod thread declared winters over and resigned there posts.This morning 06z is the more likely solution to how Christmas week could possibly pan out although by no certainly and in reality not far from what Meto are indicating,I don't use the 06z as a trend much prefer to use the 12z,however if the 06z verified we would be looking at it turning colder in the run up to Christmas with at this stage a small chance of snow showers.Unfortunately not the gold medal the models were showing a few days ago,that ship has now sailed,not a bad consolation prize,but of course all the above could be a false start.

Enjoy your weekend 

C.S