South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Daniel*]

10 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Wow! so far this December has been grim, sunshine levels must be well below average...seems the norm for Decembers now days.

Nice to see Sammy the snowman looking content, I should think he'll be happy with the latest GFS Xmas modelling (for what it's worth).

It has been very dull in London since October during this month we only had 43% of average in November not much better with 60% contrasting to that spring and it seems like we're stuck in a nightmare.

Edited December 13, 2020 by Daniel*

[Tom Montalbano]

18 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Wow! so far this December has been grim, sunshine levels must be well below average...seems the norm for Decembers now days.

Nice to see Sammy the snowman looking content, I should think he'll be happy with the latest GFS Xmas modelling (for what it's worth).

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Yes Tim, had Sammy Snowman been on duty this Morning, he would certainly have been content and perhaps bordering on happy, after the 00z Model Runs.

His 4th Blog will appear on Wednesday Morning, where he will have a further Forecasting tool, at his disposal.

Sammy will be looking at both the G.F.S. and E.C.M. Models at t216, 9 Days out from Christmas Day.

Regards,

Tom.  

 

[moogyboobles]

I went out for a walk earlier, such a lovely morning.
Barely a cloud in the sky, only a few wispy ones and they very very slightly rained, cannot even call it rain really... and this happened.

[TROY]

Mild and Sunny here today in East Dene. Noticed the local farmer has not put the Snow fences up this year, is that a sign of a snowless winter. We have only had 3 Ground frosts so far this season. Good Health to you all, stay safe.

 

[Tom Jarvis]

@Steve Murrwe need your divine wisdom back 

[MAF]

oh dear  people getting excited in the model thread can only lead to tears at bedtime me thinks  

when are some people going to learn, a model generated by a computer will never predict what mother nature has in store tomorrow, let alone 11 days time.

ho hum, its week two of winter, at least 10 more weeks to see if it turns out to be a winter of cold/snow/frost/ice   

[Robbie Garrett]

Anyone else think the rainfall at 4am and today at 2pm was just biblical in Central London. Was honestly horrendous, it felt like my window was going to cave in at 4am. 

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Sammy had forgotten he was on duty this Morning to report on the G.F.S. 00z Model Run at t240, which was joined overnight by the European Model, ECMWF.

He has a Day job with the S.F.A (Snowmen Forecasting Agency).

A Member of the H.R. Team at the S.F.A. rang Sammy last Night and reminded him, that he was on duty Today.

Sammy is very tired at the moment and is involved in some very difficult and protracted discussions.

Sammy is also Leader of U.S.D.A.W (Union of Snowmen Distributing Arctic Wind flows).

Last Winter he was elected to leader, on a Manifesto to deliver BRR-EXIT, to his Snowmen members.

He promised not to dither or delay and stated he would have a Freezer ready Meal Deal, on the table in a few Months.

BRR - EXIT would involve a split with the E.U.S (European Union of Snowmen).

But talks have reached a stubborn impasse, regarding the restriction of movement for Northern Irish Snowmen, wanting to cross to the Irish Republic.

This journey is already fraught with dangers for Northern Irish Snowmen.

Quite often during Winter, the Island of Ireland is covered by a very mild South Westerly airflow. This can rapidly reduce a Snowman, to an unsightly squelchy, sodden mess -   

The Atmosphere between Sammy and leaders of the E.U.S, has deteriorated and melted rapidly but the negotiating Teams are hoping to refreeze talks again, later this Week.

**Skandinaaviset lumiukkot tänään** (Scandinavian Snowmen Today), this Morning ran with the following Headline - 

**Se on veitsenterällä Sammylle** (It's on a knife edge for Sammy). The tabloid Newspaper is owned by Finnish Fat Cat Business Snowman, Suomi Soren -  

Suomi Soren has amassed a fortune from sales of his Newspaper and no self respecting Scandinavian Snowman would be seen without a copy of it.

The split between U.S.D.A.W. and the E.U.S., will be a great shame.

It was the E.U.S., with Sammy and U.S.D.A.W very much to the fore in late February/early March 2018, when paving the way for the unrestricted movement Westwards across Europe of -

 - The Beast From The East.

Seems to me these Snowmen, have very short memories!!

**NB** - Apologies to any Finnish speakers, it's the fault of Google Translate.

Sammy is still digesting the 00z Model Runs, and will soon return with his 4th Blog in - 

COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

Regards,

Tom.  

[Tom Montalbano]

COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

Sammy just managed to lose a whole Post, so he will now have to be really brief!!

   ECM 500hPa 00z 25th December       GFS 500hPa 00z 25th December

 

Both ECM and GFS are both broadly similar but with a couple of exceptions.

ECM is a bit further East with the pattern, and has lower heights over Greenland.

GFS has stronger heights over Greenland but lower heights over Scandinavia, and close to Baffin Island, where there is a lobe of the Polar Vortex.

GFS has a more noticeable Cold Front moving South over the U.K.

   ECM 850hPa 00z 25th December       GFS 850hPa 00z 25th December

 

Upper Air Temps, are around -5c/-6c over the S.E. Region.

  GFS 2 Metre Temps 00z 25th December

      

Temperatures are around, or just above Freezing Point, for the whole of the S.E. Region.

Sammy lost the Precipitation Chart for the GFS 00z Run but it showed a little Ppn, just entering our Region with a little bit of Wintriness, mixed in.

Given the above Data, Sammy Snowman can be described as being -

CONTENT - (20% - 34% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 4/1 to 2/1.

Certainly not a Winter Wonderland on offer but a little tweaking of the pattern could see a little Festive Snow, for the S.E. Region.

The 5th Blog of -  COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN, will appear on Friday Morning (18th), after the G.F.S. and E.C.M. 00z Model Runs, which by this time will be at t168.

Regards,

Tom.    

[Blessed Weather]

Beautiful day with plenty of welcome sunshine after the recent November drab. It feels warmer out in the sun than the 11C on the thermometer would have you believe.

A few lines of showers moving inland off the English Channel show up nicely on the lunchtime satellite image.

[TROY]

Another super Sunny day with not a hint of a breeze. Found this old photo of the main road to Eastbourne, think it was the winter of 1986 or 85. I Know we had three snowy winters on the trot with the main road blocked. Take care everyone, and good health to you all.

[Eagle Eye]

Currently Raining here, currently timelapsing a photogenic cloud considering it doesn't look great from where I can see it but my Camer is picking it up well.

[Eagle Eye]

Squall line mini timelapse into the night. 

[Eagle Eye]

Great Skies Today. 

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Sammy Snowman would now like to present his 5th Blog of -  COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

ECM 500hPa 00z (t168) 25th December      GFS 500hPa 00z (t168) 25th December

               

E.C.M, has an area of positive heights, with a centre S.W. of the U.K., stretching across the N.Atlantic, with a centre just off the S.E. tip of Newfoundland. A Ridge stretches N.E. From the High S.W. of the U.K, up into the Norwegian Sea, This separates a pretty deep area of Low Pressure, between Greenland/Iceland and a more shallow feature, centred in the far East of Europe, close to the Russian border. In the far North of the Chart, an Arctic High is throwing a Ridge S.W., towards Spitzbergen. Heights are fairly negative over Greenland, with a lobe of the P.V., in the far N.W.

G.F.S., also has an area of High Pressure centred to the S.W, of the U.K. There is also an area of positive heights off the Eastern Seaboard, of the U.S.A. These 2 features are separated by a very shallow area of low heights, just to the S.E. of Newfoundland. A complex area of Low Pressure stretches from the East Coast of Greenland, over to the Gulf of Finland, the 2 centres are separated by a slight Ridge stretching N.E. to Norway, from the High, S,W. of the U.K.

ECM 850hPa 00z (t168) 25th December     GFS 850hPa 00z (t168) 25th December

              

Both Models are suggesting Upper Air Temperatures of around -4c/-5c.

GFS MIN TEMPS  00z (t168) 25th December

       

 

The G.F.S. Model shows Min. Temps of around or just above Freezing Point, for the S.E. Region.

GFS PRECIPITATION  00z (t168) 25th December

         

  There is no precipitation expected to be falling over the S.E. Region.

With all the above Data, Sammy Snowman can be described as having an ambivalent mood again, after viewing the 00z Model Runs -

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.

 

Earlier slight optimism of a few Days ago, for a few light flurries of Snow, for the S.E. Region on Christmas Day, have been pretty much squashed by those overnight Model Runs.

Sammy really likes to frolic around in the Snow and although it may well feel pretty chilly on Christmas Day, it certainly is unlikely to be "Deep ,Crisp and Even". Crisp maybe but Deep and Even, are about to leave Town.

Sammy Snowman and Girlfriend -  - Samantha,

will wait to see what the 00z Runs deliver on Sunday (20th), before making a final decision on where they will spend the Festive period. If the prospects are still looking bleak for Snow, Sammy and Samantha will be boarding a British Airways flight to Rovaniemi on Monday Morning and be booking into an Ice Hotel, at the Lapp Ski Resort of Levi.

As I stated the other Day, Sammy has financed the trip to Lapland by leasing out those half a dozen Chest Freezers, that remained, after Sammy's Father Solomon, sold off the Family's Freezer Food business, to Bejam -

to the U.K. Government, for storing vials of the Coronavirus Vaccine.

Sammy's 6th Blog of - COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN, will be presented on Sunday Morning, after the 00z Model Runs, which by this time will be at t120.

Regards,

Tom.    

[Atmogenic]

Saw what I believe are Asperitas clouds whilst I went for a walk at Hothfield  

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

Saw what I believe are Asperitas clouds whilst I went for a walk at Hothfield  

 

 

Many of them I can see where I am as well. 

[scrat]

It's nice to see that it's going to be cold at Christmas (can keep all the drinks and veg cool outside!) .  The rain has been relentless here today  

[John Stevens]

I do hope Sammy gets more details soon @TomSE12 Christmas is beginning to look fruity in the Mod thread.... it will all probably end in tears but we can hope for snow

[essexweather]

Looks like a few of the showers today could be thundery with hail risk around the region.

[MAF]

thunder and lightning 30 minutes ago here in SE18. 

[MAF]

Tier 4 eh? good job i cancelled Xmas a few weeks ago. makes my decision to not have daughters and grandchild here on xmas day feel justified. as much as it pains  

[Eagle Eye]

Feeling like a build up to a Storm here. 

 

[Dami]

i had some hail today.

[Eagle Eye]

7 minutes ago, Dami said:

i had some hail today.

I had some clouds today