South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Dami]

1 minute ago, XanderP007 said:

probably will knowing Alexa.

she never got one thunderday right in summer.

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Dami said:

she never got one thunderday right in summer.

same for me as well better to type Oklahoma weather into Google.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Dami said:

she never got one thunderday right in summer.

Neither did the BBC app! Quite a few storms, but they all occurred following app-forecasts of 'light showers'!

[Dami]

We have an echo show, strangely enough a few times we had an 'unforecasted' storm it would change it's symbol to a 'thunderstorm' suddenly. 

[Froze were the Days]

I think I say this most times each winter (usually in December) but wake me up when something of interest comes along on the models (not talking about the GFS FI either as I trust that about as much as Callum Best with my wife). I think I'll hibernate.

[Tom Montalbano]

Just a quick P.S. to the above, interesting to note, that the Netweather Santa agrees with Sammy Snowman, regarding  the percentage probability of Snow, for our Region on Christmas Day. They both have it around 15%.

Latest Bookmakers Odds for London to get a White Christmas, are around 5/1 on average. Which is pretty mean really.

There were only 10 official White Christmases in London, during the 20th Century. See link to Met. Office fact sheet below:

National Meteorological Library (ceda.ac.uk)

Yours Truly, experienced 2 of them, 1970 and 1976.

Below, are the archived 500 hPa and 850 hPa charts ,of those events:

                                           12z CHRISTMAS DAY 1970

 

I was 15 and living in Bromley (N.W.Kent/S.E. London border).

Didn't realise at the time but I was experiencing, a Thames Snow Streamer. During late on Christmas Eve and especially during the early hours of Christmas Morning, heavy Snow Showers set in. There was a huge crack of thunder at that time, as well. 

Heavy Snow Showers continued on Boxing Day and by the end of which, we had 4 inches of Snow, in Bromley.

                                          12z CHRISTMAS DAY 1976

 

 

'76 was a much more insignificant affair, with just a few flurries of Snow and Graupel around our Region but enough for a White Christmas, to be recorded. High Pressure was to close to allow a more definitive Easterly flow.

But note the position of High Pressure in both those examples.

Sammy Snowman is hoping to see similar Synoptics for Christmas Day 2020 and with low pressure to our South, it could be game on for a bit of Festive "white stuff."

Regards,

Tom   

 

[Atmogenic]

Went out quite late to woods and never been in the woods with it being this dark, but managed to get quite a nice wintery photo when I got out in the open 

 

[Hotspur62]

Reached 10.6 today in Locksbottom,mildest day of the month so far by a couple degrees.Had a few heavy showers but not a bad day here overall.Sadly the prospect of colder weather seem to have gone Pete Tong and the next 7-10 days here look mild with temperatures ranging 8-10 degrees and not really dropping that much at night.As Tom says above chances of a white Xmas are receding fast and think 15 % chance is optimistic !!Still time for things to change as 2 weeks ago but things not looking great for a cold spell this side of Xmas

[bluebell]

I feel this is a ‘safe space’ to ask a question  ! It’s in respect to the mod thread in particular, do people think that forum users mistakenly press the ‘ha ha’ button at contributions/posts that are clearly not intended to be ironic or funny in any way. Currently I’m in the frame of mind that considers that they aren’t butter fingers accidentally pressing the button but designed to be bordering on a bit rude and disrespectful...?! Anyone else wasting oxygen wondering, probably not??

Re the weather, feels much warmer, few spells of sun were welcome in between very heavy showers.  

[Methuselah]

23 minutes ago, bluebell said:

I feel this is a ‘safe space’ to ask a question  ! It’s in respect to the mod thread in particular, do people think that forum users mistakenly press the ‘ha ha’ button at contributions/posts that are clearly not intended to be ironic or funny in any way. Currently I’m in the frame of mind that considers that they aren’t butter fingers accidentally pressing the button but designed to be bordering on a bit rude and disrespectful...?! Anyone else wasting oxygen wondering, probably not??

Re the weather, feels much warmer, few spells of sun were welcome in between very heavy showers.  

That's a good question, BB... And there's only one way I can answer it:

Everyone is entitled to his or her opinion... but that does not mean that everyone is entitled to be taken seriously...?

And that goes for you, me and everyone!

[alexisj9]

55 minutes ago, bluebell said:

I feel this is a ‘safe space’ to ask a question  ! It’s in respect to the mod thread in particular, do people think that forum users mistakenly press the ‘ha ha’ button at contributions/posts that are clearly not intended to be ironic or funny in any way. Currently I’m in the frame of mind that considers that they aren’t butter fingers accidentally pressing the button but designed to be bordering on a bit rude and disrespectful...?! Anyone else wasting oxygen wondering, probably not??

Re the weather, feels much warmer, few spells of sun were welcome in between very heavy showers.  

No pondering needed, happens every year, it's deliberate. Basically, yeah right that's not gonna happen. And no I don't partake, and will never do so.

[bluebell]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

No pondering needed, happens every year, it's deliberate. Basically, yeah right that's not gonna happen. And no I don't partake, and will never do so.

Thanks, yes life is too short leaves a bad taste in the mouth. I’m all for banter but find social communication on a forum very very difficult. I’ve found lockdown with work/social meetings on zoom etc really makes me realise how much I rely on body language, facial expressions to read the room! 

[Gowon]

We all get laughed at, or laugh at somebody else for chatting rubbish. Don't easily be offended and move on from the experience when it happens to you.

Lighten up and stop being so serious.

[alexisj9]

50 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

We all get laughed at, or laugh at somebody else for chatting rubbish. Don't easily be offended and move on from the experience when it happens to you.

Lighten up and stop being so serious.

I personally can't help it, one of those people who's always serious, and rarely understand jokes.

[Gowon]

10 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I personally can't help it, one of those people who's always serious, and rarely understand jokes.

Even when you get tickled?

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Even when you get tickled?

Lol I'm actually not ticklish. 

[Gowon]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Lol I'm actually not ticklish. 

I believe I just made you laugh

[stainesbloke]

10 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

I personally can't help it, one of those people who's always serious, and rarely understand jokes.

My other half keeps telling me that I have no sense of humour. I just reply that if only he was funnier. Can see why the mod thread might be hard work for many.

Uninspiring weather for the foreseeable, not much sign of anything exciting, but it’s only 2 weeks til Christmas

[alexisj9]

50 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

My other half keeps telling me that I have no sense of humour. I just reply that if only he was funnier. Can see why the mod thread might be hard work for many.

Uninspiring weather for the foreseeable, not much sign of anything exciting, but it’s only 2 weeks til Christmas

It's fine for me in there, water off a ducks back. It's very difficult to get me to react in any direction. Although I can't wait till there's something to be excited about.

[stainesbloke]

8 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

It's fine for me in there, water off a ducks back. It's very difficult to get me to react in any direction. Although I can't wait till there's something to be excited about.

Best way to be Fingers crossed for some exciting weather soon. 

[lawrenk]

First time I’ve popped into the regional for a while. Don’t know why but it feels quite festive this evening. Loads of elaborate Christmas lights in the neighbourhood and just opened a bottle of red before watching “the hit list”’shortly. What could be better?

The model output looks, in all honesty, pretty pants at the moment for us. To think, most predictions were for a front loaded winter so we may have already had the best of it!

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

Hope yourselves and your Families, are well.

SAMMY SNOWMAN would now like to bring you his 3rd Blog in - CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN with SAMMY SNOWMAN.

He will illustrate his Blog, with a few Charts from the G.F.S. 00z Run.

We have now arrived at t288 (00z 25th Dec)  on the G.F.S Model. Below is the Forecast 500 hPa Chart, at that time:

An area of High Pressure in Mid-Atlantic, extends a Ridge up towards Iceland. A complex area of Low Pressure, stretches from Denmark across to Finland/W.Russia.

A Cold Front has just exited the S.E. Region, and lies across the Channel/N.France.

This leaves us, in a cold N/N.N.E. flow, 2 metre temperatures are a few degrees above freezing, across our Region:

The Upper Air Temperatures (850 hPa) are around -6c/-5c, across our Region.

Precipitation amounts are slight across the Region.

A little ppn would have fallen with the passage of the Cold Front. Some showers (probably Wintry), would be following in it's wake, especially pecking away at the Norfolk Coast:

  

Taking into account the above Data, Sammy's mood has gone up a notch. Although the above Charts don't scream a Winter Wonderland, they could be a lot worse and at least it would feel fairly Festive.

Sammy's emotion, could be described as Content. Below is Content Sammy, with his ideas of percentage probability and Betting Odds, for our Region to have a White Christmas: 

CONTENT - (20% - 34% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 4/1 to 2/1.

The 4th Blog of -  CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN with SAMMY SNOWMAN, will appear on Wednesday Morning, after the G.F.S. 00z Run, which by this time will be at t216.

Regards,

Tom.   

[Hotspur62]

Miserable damp morning here with rain forecast on and off all day.currently 6.1 here in Locksbottom and forecast a high of 9 today.This week looks not too bad temperatures wise with 9-11 covering most of the region.As Tom suggests above still a chance of a white Xmas but I think this time next week we will know if Sammy will be happier or unhappy!!

[Froze were the Days]

Wow! so far this December has been grim, sunshine levels must be well below average...seems the norm for Decembers now days.

Nice to see Sammy the snowman looking content, I should think he'll be happy with the latest GFS Xmas modelling (for what it's worth).

[alexisj9]

Rain rain and more rain today.