South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

Some sunshine around at time today and slightly bless cold. However the rain has properly set in with temperatures a little too high for anything wintry.

[moogyboobles]

It is so frustrating when it's this cold (1.3) and it rains, like it is now.
So close.

[pinball wizard]

16 minutes ago, moogyboobles said:

It is so frustrating when it's this cold (1.3) and it rains, like it is now.
So close.

Always the way!! But yeah it is really frustrating.

[Froze were the Days]

Thought we could be in for a good air frost tonight...but typical! rain could clear in another hour or so so maybe the temp could go back down in the early hours and become quite icy.

[lottiekent]

Frosty when I popped to the supermarket around 5pm and got down to -1.0c a little while ago. 
Now hovering just below zero...shame the frost will be gone by morning with the rain.

[Jamie M]

Dandruff falling in Loose, Kent

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Frosty when I popped to the supermarket around 5pm and got down to -1.0c a little while ago. 
Now hovering just below zero...shame the frost will be gone by morning with the rain.

If it stays minus, it might be rather icy rain. My temps going up though.

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

Hope I fid yourselves and your Families, well. 

With the appearance of Christmas Day on the last frame of the G.F.S. 00z Run, I would now like to bring you the first report of CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN with SAMMY SNOWMAN.

Sammy will bring you a light hearted look at the prospects of a White Christmas, for the South East Region.

He will illustrate his findings with Charts, from the respective G.F.S. Model Run.

SYNOPTICS at 00z 25th DECEMBER

Below, is the 500 hPa Chart, as we enter Christmas Day:

What looks to be a disrupting Trough, extends ESE, from an area of Low Pressure, close to the top of S.W. Greenland.

There is a positive "wedge" of heights, just to the N.E, of Iceland, extending into Central Greenland.

An area of High Pressure is centred just to the West of Iberia. A shallow area of Low Pressure, lies just off the Coast of Northern Norway. 

850 hPa TEMPS (Upper Air) at 00z 25th DECEMBER

Most of the S.E. Region is covered with Upper Air at around -1c but Kent is around 0c.

PRECIPITATION at 00z 25th DECEMBER

An area of light Rain covers the S.E. Region and about to clear the East Coast.

PRECIPITATION TYPE at 00z 25th DECEMBER

Obviously at these Temperatures, it's all Rain over our Region. The nearest Snowfall, being over the Scottish Highlands.

Given the above Data, Sammy is in the following State of Emotion:

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.

 After the G.F.S. 00z, Sammy is in a rather ambivalent mood.

The above Synoptics are not very inspiring for producing Snow, over the S.E. Region.

But as we all know, from bitter (and mild) experience, what the G.F.S. 00z taketh away, the same Model can giveth back in the other hand, some 6 Hours later.

Tune in for the 2nd Report from Sammy, after the G.F.S 00z Run on Friday 11th December.

In a short while, I will be giving a short history of how the life of Sammy has panned out, since his last appearance on the S.E. Forum, back in December/January 2018. Plus the lengths he has gone to, to make sure that his Girlfriend Sally and himself, experience a cold and snowy, Festive Holiday.

Regards,

Tom.  

[Tom Montalbano]

Some of you may remember, that back in the Winter of 2018, Sammy and his Parents, Solomon and Sharon - 

spent the Christmas Holiday, in Lapland. This was to escape, yet another depressingly boring Snowless Christmas in the South East Region, which is obviously extremely detrimental to their health.

But whilst there, Sammy was catapulted high above the Earth by a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. (S.S.W.)

Some of you may remember ,he was misidentified as Ultima Thule, a distant world floating around at the edge of our Universe but it was in fact, Sammy Snowman. NASA captured an image of Sammy, shortly after that S.S.W.

A little while later, he fell back to Earth but landed gently, on the deep snow in Northern Scandinavia.

The Family returned to England and spent the rest of Winter 2018, safely tucked away in Freezers.

Many moons ago, Solomon and Sharon sold their Freezer Food business to Bejam (now Iceland, of course).

They received a very tidy sum and gave Sammy and his Sister, Sally -  

a very generous amount.

With his amount, Sammy bought himself an Ice House. This is styled on a Scandinavian Ice Hotel -

 Sammy had this built in East Kent, at Snowdown. 

He also bought himself an Ice Holiday Cottage at Snowshill, in the heart of the Gloucestershire Cotswolds.

Sammy moved his Girlfriend Samantha - 

into his property in East Kent, last Year.

As I stated the other Day, Sammy has made provisional Flight bookings to Rovaniemi, in Lapland and booked a room at the Finnish Ski Resort of Levi, over Christmas. See latest image below:

Sammy is concerned that another Snowless Christmas beckons, back in Blighty.

The problem is that Sammy and Samantha are a bit strapped for cash, after the huge outlay on those Ice properties.

But Sammy is a resourceful Entrepreneur and a "chip off the 'ole ice block, just like his Father, Solomon.

The Family kept back around a half a dozen Chest Freezers, after selling off their Freezer Food business, for entertaining Family and Friends .

Sammy has leased a few of these out to the U.K. Government, to store the Coronavirus Vaccine.

Bur our Sammy has been a bit naughty and "pulled the wool" over the Government's eyes.

These Freezers operate on a minimum temperature of -30c, nothing like the -70c for the safe storage of these Vaccines.

So don't be fooled if you're offered one of these Covid-19 jabs, it's probably utterly useless!!

On the subject of the Coronavirus, the Finnish Government wanted Sammy/Samantha to have Covid-19 test, before they entered Lapland. Not only that but they are to wear full protective clothing, Face Mask, Visor, etc.

But having spoken to Health Professionals in their Area, they have been given reassurance, that they can't contract CV.

The Virus can't survive, at their core body temperature. Also the Coronavirus can't attach itself to their eye area of coal, or indeed enter the nasal passages of a carrot.

Rumour has it, that Sammy is planning to propose to Samantha and pop an Engagement Ring on her frozen finger, during a romantic sleigh ride, should the couple find themselves in Lapland during the Festive period.

But like her future Mother-in-Law Sharon, Samantha is a real home "bod", and prefers to remain at Home, during Christmas.

You will find her in the Kitchen on Christmas Morning, preparing Dinner, slicing vegetables (except their noses), etc, whilst listening to her favourite Christmas CD (I'm dreaming of a White Christmas/Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow, and of course, Frosty the Snowman).

Therefore, Sammy is in a bit of a quandary on whether to try and get Samantha over to Lapland, or hope the Weather does him a favour and turns cold and snowy, over our Region for Christmas Day.

But even if the Models are forecasting a cold and snowy Christmas Day, Sammy won't be counting his frozen chickens until he sees snowflakes, falling outside his Ice House.

Regards,

Tom.     

Edited December 9, 2020 by TomSE12

[Nick F]

BBC monthly outlook teasing us with a cold snap in the last ten days of this month, shades of December 2005? 

BBC Weather

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Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC Weather Centre.

If we can get more amplification in the upper flow over the Atlantic, their prediction certainly got legs IMO, what with higher heights already there to the north and northeast.

[Matty88]

Is it me or is the signal for HP re-affirming itself diminishing? It seems it's getting pushed further back with each run. We need that ridge to shake things up.... high probability of that happening, but until then its just drab viewing. Lets all pray ...!! So close yet so far....  

[Hotspur62]

Hit a high of 6 degrees 5his afternoon in Locksbottom and it did feel a lot milder than previous 4 or 5 days.Trend for temperatures over next 5 days looks upwards and we could hit double figures on Monday and Tuesday.With that the threat of rain looms but at least the heating won’t be on quite as much!!every cloud ....

[lassie23]

Winter was off this morning in the MOD thread, now it's back on for half an hour until......

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Winter was off this morning in the MOD thread, now it's back on for half an hour until......

I'm already counting down the days till Smarch!

[Dami]

blimin' felt colder today than it was on the cold days because by gum 6c is tropical like.

 

Edited December 10, 2020 by Dami

[lassie23]

3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

I'm already counting down the days till Smarch!

Cot more chance of Smarch snow than December snow, you've got to love smarch

[Kentspur]

10 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Cot more chance of Smarch snow than December snow, you've got to love smarch

I was meant to be on my Scottish Highlands lodge break last week during the old thundersnow event but I've moved it to Smarch now❄

[alexisj9]

Heavy fine rain, and windy here this evening, quite glad I had no where to go, yucky weather.

[Timmytour]

Outside the rain begins

And it may never end.....

[lassie23]

43 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I was meant to be on my Scottish Highlands lodge break last week during the old thundersnow event but I've moved it to Smarch now❄

That would have been good to see, Smarch can provide thunder snow too, hope you experience it then.

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. 

Quite a bit milder in S.E. London this Morning, compared to the last Week or so.

I would now like to bring the 2nd Blog Report of - CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN with SAMMY SNOWMAN.

 We are now a further 2 Days closer to the "Big Day", after his 1st Blog, on Wednesday. Christmas Day is now at t336.

Sammy will now illustrate his findings with a variety of Charts from the G.F.S. 00z Run:

SYNOPTICS at 00z 25th DECEMBER

Below, is the 500 hPa Chart, as we enter Christmas Day, at t336:

A complex area of Low Pressure lies over the N.W.U.K./N.E. Atlantic. There is also an area of Low Pressure, in the far N.E. of Canada.

Pressure is high to the S.E. of the U.K.,with a centre close to Italy and to to the S.W. of the U.K., with a centre close to The Azores, throwing a slight Ridge, into the Central North Atlantic. Another area of positive heights can be seen close to the Eastern Seaboard, of the U.S.A,

There is also another area of High Pressure well away to the N.E., over Western Russia. 

850 hPa TEMPS (Upper Air) at t336, 00z 25th DECEMBER

Most of our Region is covered by Upper Air temps of -1c but the extreme East of the Region has Upper Air temps of around 0c.

2 METRE MINIMUM TEMPS at t336, 00z 25th DECEMBER

Temperatures are at a mild 6c/7c/8c, across our Region.

PRECIPITATION at t336, 00z 25th DECEMBER

An area of light Rain lies across the East and South of our Region.

SNOW DEPTH at t336, 00z 25th DECEMBER

No Snow/Ice reported from anywhere close to our Region, just a little over the Scottish Mountains, away to our S.E., over the Alps and way to the North/North East, and in the Arctic.

Obviously, his latest findings aren't conducive to Snow, for our Region but Sammy remains in a phlegmatic mood:

QUE SERA, SERA - (10% - 19% PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 9/1 to 19/5.

 

Albeit that the prospects for Snow are not great, Sammy reasons that we are not talking "blowtorch" South Westerlies here.

At the moment Sammy is thankful that he booked those provisional Flights and Hotel accommodation in Lapland, for the Festive period.

Below, is the current scene in the Finnish Ski Resort of Levi:

 

Sammy is hoping that he can still convince his Girlfriend, Samantha -   to spend Christmas in Lapland.

Should prospects still look bleak for Snow by Sunday 20th December, Sammy and Samantha plan to fly out to Lapland, the following Day.

Tune in again for Sammy's 3rd Blog Report of - CHRISTMAS COUNTDOWN with SAMMY SNOWMAN, this coming Sunday.

We will then be down to t288, on the G.F.S. Forecast Model.

Regards,

Tom.   

Edited December 11, 2020 by TomSE12

[Dami]

If it had been cold enough it looked like we had had some snow, the sky had that white look about it, but nah. Just rain.

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Dami said:

If it had been cold enough it looked like we had had some snow, the sky had that white look about it, but nah. Just rain.

Alexa saying it's Snowing again?

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by XanderP007

[Dami]

1 minute ago, XanderP007 said:

Alexa saying it's Snowing again?

 

Haven't asked

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Dami said:

Haven't asked

probably will knowing Alexa.