South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[Eagle Eye]

Used the Star feature on night sky Clouds. 

 

[Eagle Eye]

The Flash went by Today. 

 

[Dami]

32 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

I had some clouds today

and some rain

[scrat]

Heavy hail here.....so noisy (but nice to hear).  Gutted to be in tier 4 

[MAF]

now trying to convince my daughter to come home from Manchester so she is in London for xmas. stubborn and mule comes to mind  

why do the younger generation think this is all a joke?????

[Eagle Eye]

Hailing here

[greenhithe]

looking at the long term forecast would not surprise me if we have dusting of snow in the new year

 

[TROY]

Totally weird weather here in East Dene yesterday. Mild and Sunny locally all day. But dark clouds to the North West in the afternoon and then some lightning some miles inland after dark. Heavy rain overnight that woke me up. And now totally clear starry skies this morning but no frost. Good Health to you all and stay safe.

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Sammy Snowman would now like to present his 6th Blog of - COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN.

 We are now entering Christmas Day, at t120. Sammy has extra Data at his disposal, courtesy of the UKMO Model.

He will spread this Blog, over 2 Posts.

ECM 500hPa 00z (t120) 25th December      GFS 500hPa 00z (t120) 25th December

               

   UKMO 500hPa 00z (t120) 25th December

       

All 3 Models are broadly similar. A strong area of High Pressure lies just to the W.S.W of the British Isles, with a Ridge N.E, into the Norwegian Sea. An Arctic High, is throwing a Ridge S.W., towards Northern parts of Scandinavia.

There are negative heights over Greenland, with a lobe of the Polar Vortex over Baffin Bay/N.W. Greenland. 

A shallow area of Low Pressure, lies over the Gulf of Finland.

There is also a large area of High Pressure, just to the South of Newfoundland.

ECM 850hPa 00z (t120) 25th December      GFS 850hPa 00z (t120) 25th December

               

 GFS MIN. 2 Metre TEMPS00z (t120) 25th December

              

2 Metre Temperatures are between +3c in the East of the S.E. Region and around 0c, in the West of the Region.

    GFS 850hPa Wind 00z (t120) 25th December

                

This shows a wind from between N.N.W and N.N.E., over the S.E. Region.

  GFS PPN TYPE 00z (t120) 25th December

      

The Model shows that the greater part of the S.E. Region, will be dry.

There is just the chance of some Wintry type Showers, being blown off the North Sea, into North Norfolk, and the very extreme, East of Kent but this is a very temporary possibility, in the early hours of Christmas Morning. These areas will soon join the rest of our Region, in having a dry Christmas Day.

With all the above Data to hand, the mood of Sammy Snowman could now be described as -

SAD - (9% or less PROBABILITY) - ODDS - 10/1 or more -

Although maximum temperatures during Christmas Day, are only likely to be a few degrees above freezing for our Region, there is very little chance of seeing any Snow.

In a short while, Sammy Snowman will return with details of where himself and Girlfriend Samantha, will be spending the Festive period.

Regards,

Tom.  

[Eagle Eye]

Connective Skies for the region again today, perhaps the odd cg. 

 

[Froze were the Days]

Every morning I wake up and the lawn is in the same state...either sodden wet or has a dew, only 1 morning this month has it been crisp to walk on. Sign of the times I suppose (and not particularly good times).

On another note, not sure about the temps being only a few degrees above freezing for our region Tom for Christmas day, I really don't think it will be that cold particularly if it's sunny. At a guess I'd say the majority in this region would be looking at 6-7 degrees maxes.

Edited December 20, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[Eagle Eye]

Had a sudden downpour.

[Eagle Eye]

Hailed might get a picture later.

[Tom Montalbano]

Sammy Snowman would now like to present details of where himself and Girlfriend,

Samantha -   will be spending their Christmas Holiday.

Sammy is really thankful of booking that provisional Holiday, in Lapland.

Although Samantha was very reluctant to spend Christmas away, she has now agreed to spend it in Lapland.

With talk of a possible Sudden Stratospheric Warming event taking place, while they're away, the couple will be taking precautions against a repeat performance, of a couple of Winters ago.

Some of you may remember that Sammy Snowman was catapulted high into the Stratosphere, by a S.S.W. event in January 2018. Sammy was mistakenly identified, as Ultima Thule -

But it was Sammy, encased in ice. He later fell to Earth and landed gently in the deep Snows, of Lapland.

Samantha is determined that Sammy will remain tethered to their ice bed (steady on, children read this Forum), should a S.S.W., get under way.

The frozen, loved up couple will be boarding a British Airways flight to Rovaniemi (Lapland), Tomorrow Morning.

From there, faster than a thawing vial of Coronavirus Vaccine, Sammy and Samantha will be driven to their Ice Hotel, in the Lapp Ski Resort, of Levi -

Although, there doesn't seem to be Snow forecast for Levi on Christmas Day, it's Deep, Crisp and Even, at the moment -

Sammy Snowman, apologises for "rubbing it in" but with temperatures such as these forecast, for Lapland - 

and likely to stay that way, throughout the Festive period.

Sammy will present his final 2 Blogs in - COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN, from Lapland.

These will be on Tues. 22nd Dec. (t72) and Christmas Eve, 24th Dec. (t24).

Regards,

Tom.   

[Tom Montalbano]

28 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Every morning I wake up and the lawn is in the same state...either sodden wet or has a dew, only 1 morning this month has it been crisp to walk on. Sign of the times I suppose (and not particularly good times).

On another note, not sure about the temps being only a few degrees above freezing for our region Tom for Christmas day, I really don't think it will be that cold particularly if it's sunny. At a guess I'd say the majority in this region would be looking at 6-7 degrees maxes.

Hi Tim,

You could well be right. Was basing that on what the 00z GFS , was showing for mid-Afternoon on Christmas Day.

Certainly looks like being dry, for the vast majority of the Region though.

There looks to be just the faintest of chances of a Wintry Shower, in Norfolk perhaps.

Regards,

Tom.  

[TROY]

April showers now here. Hefty showers too. Fingers crossed for at least a frosty Christmas Day.

[Eagle Eye]

Afternoon everyone

 Hope your well

Christmas is looking like it's going to swing one way and tommorrow's charts could be the maker or the breaker.

After Christmas though the charts for here have been going for a central low, a polar low our region would bring Snowfall if this plays out for lonnger and blocking holds, low is waiting to crash through.

It stays over us for a few days and could bring snowfall rates up to those of 2010 if further charts carry on like this, into the New Year would be great and if this blocking stays we could see rates to such as the 20th Century so don't get down too much yet.

Blocking into the New Year as well Greenland high is collapsing allowing a polar low to happen but it's too far away to tell.

However this is the control run.

[Captain Shortwave]

Reasonable day today, fairly mild too with sunny spells and light winds.

Christmas, there is the chance of this region (Especially inland East Anglia) recording a “White Christmas”.

Winds overnight Christmas Eve into the big day look northerly until later in the day when winds will back towards the west. 
GFS breakfast time on the 25th

 

Showers still running in off the North Sea and yes it shows snow mixed in (850s of -6 to -8c). Still time for this to disappear.

[Eagle Eye]

Snow!!! 

More than last time it Snowed's Chance. 

[moogyboobles]

2 hours ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Snow!!! 

More than last time it Snowed's Chance. 

I was just coming on here because I noticed the same and found myself almost ramping in my head! 
Not had a chance like that in years.
 

[lottiekent]

Not a bad day here, some sunny spells but still the odd brief, heavy shower rattling through. Even had a rainbow!

Still hoping for a Christmas miracle with some snow between Christmas and New Year...have 11 days off so would be great to have some model fun and lamppost watching!

[moogyboobles]

58 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Not a bad day here, some sunny spells but still the odd brief, heavy shower rattling through. Even had a rainbow!

Still hoping for a Christmas miracle with some snow between Christmas and New Year...have 11 days off so would be great to have some model fun and lamppost watching!

 

I hope you get what you wish for! 

I had a lovely couple of walks today. I wish I'd taken the proper camera with me.  

 

Edited December 20, 2020 by moogyboobles

[lottiekent]

6 minutes ago, moogyboobles said:

I hope you get what you wish for! 

I had a lovely couple of walks today. I wish I'd taken the proper camera with me.  

 

Fingers crossed..my 13 year old can’t remember the time we last had proper snow. Be nice to have some fun as no one can go anywhere.

[Eagle Eye]

The Snow chance is still holding Strong. 

[Eagle Eye]

On 19/12/2020 at 20:30, MAF said:

now trying to convince my daughter to come home from Manchester so she is in London for xmas. stubborn and mule comes to mind  

why do the younger generation think this is all a joke?????

Thanks for thinking I think it's a joke now I'll just go out and Partly like it's 1999.

Edited December 21, 2020 by Sheldon Cooper