Storm Alex - early Oct MeteoFrance

[Jo Farrow]

Named by Meteo France today as part of SW Europe grouping

Storm Alex which will affect UK , already Wind and rain warning for far south of England on Friday from UK Met Office

"A spell of wet and windy weather is expected, with potential for flooding and transport disruption" Further heavy rain and strong winds on Saturday easterly and northerlies around the low centres. Plenty of uncertainty so don't rely on hourly rain data times from weather apps too much. 

"A depression, called "#Alex " by @meteofrance will intensify in #tempête off the #Bretagne this Thursday, October 1 in the evening, hitting the north-west of the country during the night of Thursday to Friday and Friday morning (140 km / h on the coast, 100-120 in the interior).#TempeteAlex "     140km/h = >85mph

Edited September 30, 2020 by Jo Farrow

[Jo Farrow]

 

[Mark Parsons]

Interesting development that one if it comes off, quite unusual I'd say.  Good job I know enough French to understand the tweet lol........

[Jo Farrow]

1 minute ago, Mark Parsons said:

Interesting development that one if it comes off, quite unusual I'd say.  Good job I know enough French to understand the tweet lol........

I did put the Google translate versin in the opening comment, just in case.  So no Storm Aiden yet what ever certain newspapers have been shrieking this week.  

[Jo Farrow]

Here are the SW group names (image)

and this year's west group including UK are here https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10448-what-are-the-storm-names-for-2020---2021

[matty40s]

Interesting indeed, the East side has been rather wet this week already, and the Norfolk Broads has seen boats trapped under bridges as the levels with the North and East winds were far higher than normal. 

Friday will see more strong gusting East winds veering North through Saturday, which could exacerbate problems along the Thames Estuary , Broads and Wash.

[Jo Farrow]

"The #ThamesBarrier will be closing on Sunday 4th October for its annual full tide test closure. " a low set of spring tides over next few days which might needs flood alerts. @AlanBarrierEA

[Mark Parsons]

8 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

I did put the Google translate versin in the opening comment, just in case.  So no Storm Aiden yet what ever certain newspapers have been shrieking this week.  

Apologies Jo , for some reason when i viewed this post it was top of the page so i didn't see a footer to explain that tweet! Nothing massive i agree but the track of the low is quite rare........

[Superstormuk]

9 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

 

It's looking intense for the channel in the coming days. Those isobars are very tight. Its already extremely blustery and wet down here in Brighton, so it'll be interesting to see what happens at its full intensity. 

[Dorsetbred]

13 hours ago, Superstormuk said:

It's looking intense for the channel in the coming days. Those isobars are very tight. Its already extremely blustery and wet down here in Brighton, so it'll be interesting to see what happens at its full intensity. 

Another day, another type of weather, bright sunshine and a light breeze today..It could be interesting for us coasters, but is totally dependant upon it's position, 100 miles either way will make the world of difference..

[Spikey M]

It is an odd one. It looks odds on for an absolute washout with 50mph winds, but if the initial track does shift northwards, then those wind speeds will head northwards too.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Can see a kink forming in the clouds to the SW of Ireland as the jet plunges towards the Bay of Biscay - baby storm Alex!

[Gael_Force]

I don't remember seeing anything similar to the modelling of Alex. Is it because the tiny surface feature gets trapped under the cut off upper low that causes it to do a loop while remaining intact? 

 

 

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's an update on the earlier animation, highlighting the hammerhead structure described above

[West is Best]

Every GFS run for the last 4 has nudged Storm Alex north. It looks as if this and the associated lows over the next three days could bring disruption from rain across the whole of southern Britain and the Midlands and gales in the south and south-west.

Pretty potent.

[Jo Farrow]

Red warning for the winds over NW France https://vigilance.meteofrance.fr/fr/vent-violent 

Gusts up a notch now 150km/h which is over 90mph

"Nevertheless, given the violence and the speed of the phenomenon, we should expect gust values between 130 and 150 km / h, or even more peak occasionally"

and EuMEtSat Water Vapour imagery. 

GIF shows Alex low centre which moves souhtwards eventually then secondary low throwing Saturdays rain at Britain. All Alex for the punters.

 

[Thunder and Lightning]

This has been mentioned a bit but it really looks like Storm Alex is rapidly intensifying, and for me the satellite looks slightly reminiscent of a sting jet...

[Jo Farrow]

58 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

This has been mentioned a bit but it really looks like Storm Alex is rapidly intensifying, and for me the satellite looks slightly reminiscent of a sting jet...

The FSXX is keen and that Brittany red warning with mention of gusts over 90mph suggest same.

 

[Frosty hollows]

3 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

The FSXX is keen and that Brittany red warning with mention of gusts over 90mph suggest same.

 

Thank you,Jo. I'm being educated here! Any idea what would cause a fracture/disruption to the front?

[Jo Farrow]

Two articles for bedtime reading https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3267 

one long and shorter https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/sting-jet 

 

Shapiro -Keyser http://eumetrain.org/satmanu/shapiro_keyser_cm/index.html

 

Edited October 1, 2020 by Jo Farrow
forgot SK one

[Jo Farrow]

Channel Islands also have red wind warning severe gale force 9 SE to S veering SW to west storm Force 10 soon

[West is Best]

A gust of 130 kph, 81 mph, just now at Belle-Ile

 

[Willsy]

w/nw france better brace themselves if this is about to hit them! 
 

Edited October 1, 2020 by Willsy

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs 18z has a pressure of 967mb at 08:00 hrs tomorrow over the channel islands,that is pretty impressive.

[Mapantz]

The possibility of some thunder in amongst heavy showers that develop behind the frontal system tomorrow, for the South coast.

Look's rather interesting to say the least!