Model output discussion - Winter approaches

[Zak M]

Way out into FI this is what the 12z ECM churns out... a pretty good run this is for coldies.

   

Look at the NH view too - could potentially be a good pattern going into December.

@240

Edited November 14, 2020 by Zak M

[northwestsnow]

Some big leaps of faith needed  to believe the det but that run would be fab for those wanting some seasonal November weather ...

 

[swfc]

And here it comes. Ec big swing again. Tradesman alert following gfs

[Cheshire Freeze]

Excellent day 10 ECM- would get colder and colder from the E

Decent N hemisphere set up too for the longer game

[Tim Bland]

Wish we could see day 11 & 12. Some very low uppers to the east waiting to spread over us....

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM at day ten is on the money...

...yeah!,monopoly money

nice chart though.

 

Edited November 14, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Wish we could see day 11 & 12. Some very low uppers to the east waiting to spread over us....

Likewise 10 day UKMO would be an interesting insight too! 

Anyone have a contact on the inside?

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Wish we could see day 11 & 12. Some very low uppers to the east waiting to spread over us....

Academic I guess at present, but what about the huge vortex to north west, would it not collapse that block before it delivered the goods

 

 

[blizzard81]

Some trends today on some operational runs to build pressure over scandi. It would be great to see these tentative trends build into something more certain. A scandi high as we approach the end of November would be my ideal synoptic going forward into winter proper. 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Academic I guess at present, but what about the huge vortex to north west, would it not collapse that block before it delivered the goods

 

 

Most classic scandi highs have the vortex to our north west

 

[dragan]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Academic I guess at present, but what about the huge vortex to north west, would it not collapse that block before it delivered the goods

 

 

block collapsage isn’t possible due to the annual vortex depreciation around this time. Of course that doesn’t rule out the fact it could organically minimise especially given any sort of radiation input.......

[nick sussex]

What could possibly go wrong ! 

Good to see that some things never change ! The ECM has quite a different 12hrs run from its 00hrs especially with what the PV does .

Treat with caution ! Easterlies and the ECM are a recipe for major traumas in here .

A lot needs to go right after day 7.

Red alert issued ! 

[sheikhy]

Fantastic ecm tonight more like the ukmo at 144 hours than gfs in my opinion!!can imagine ukmo looking even better!!game on!!

[mb018538]

Nice to see it busier in here after a dreary and dull start to the first half of November. Our first real teaser charts of the silly season! 

[Tim Bland]

16 minutes ago, dragan said:

block collapsage isn’t possible due to the annual vortex depreciation around this time. Of course that doesn’t rule out the fact it could organically minimise especially given any sort of radiation input.......

Please tell us more about the annual vortex depreciation around this time and how it is organically minimised by the sun

[Anthony Burden]

As stated earlier after unsettled spell met office was hinting high pressure to take over.

And possibly turning cold with frost,all about positioning of high,let’s hope the ECM 240 hrs

is bang on and winter begins in earnest.

[bluearmy]

34 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Wish we could see day 11 & 12. Some very low uppers to the east waiting to spread over us....

The control isn’t v different ....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

58 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks ok to me...

More than ok Tim....beautiful!

 

BFTP

[Zak M]

I'm bored, so I just had a look through the CFS. Some nice charts which will 100% verify.

         

See you all on the next episode of 'Your Daily Dose of CFS' 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I'm bored, so I just had a look through the CFS. Some nice charts which will 100% verify.

         

See you all on the next episode of 'Your Daily Dose of CFS' 

Great charts! for a month or so into Lockdown 3

[Allseasons-Si]

59 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What could possibly go wrong ! 

Good to see that some things never change ! The ECM has quite a different 12hrs run from its 00hrs especially with what the PV does .

Treat with caution ! Easterlies and the ECM are a recipe for major traumas in here .

A lot needs to go right after day 7.

Red alert issued ! 

When will you give us the GREEN light Nick!!!

[dragan]

43 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Please tell us more about the annual vortex depreciation around this time and how it is organically minimised by the sun

Timothy, this is nor the time or place, for this is model output discussion. Keep tuned for more pearls of wisdom however, you may learn a thing or two. 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, dragan said:

Timothy, this is nor the time or place, for this is model output discussion. Keep tuned for more pearls of wisdom however, you may learn a thing or two. 

Oh, go on, this seems absolutely the place, entirely the correct forum, I'm intrigued. 

Please do tell, unless it's classified, you know, need to know, etc, what what? 

Ta

[Uncertainty]

Evening all

I think we’ve got good agreement on the Synoptics up to around day 6 or 7. A node of  heights amplifying around Greenland and then tumbling down through the U.K. All models then have another low approaching and possibly disrupting against that little wedge, but the nature of this interaction and the subsequent amplification (or lack of) is presently unclear.

The GEM for example, does disrupt the low under the wedge to some extent but then it sort of hangs around near the UK and the next low follows quickly from the Eastern Seaboard with little amplification in between.

Agree with the comments above vis the ECM, nice evolution but it’s got serious history of day 9-10 garden path highs.
Still, it’s not completely unsupported by the 240 mean from earlier on and perhaps more so on the latest mean. The GFS at a similar time frame also toys with a Scandi high. As Nick rightfully points out, it’s a precarious evolution to get there and thus, unlikely to be there tomorrow morning.

I think the form horse this evening is a cooler, unsettled outlook with systems perhaps taking a more negative tilt. There is certainly scope for amplification after that, but it’s been so long since a chart like the day 10 ECM actually happened during late autumn / early winter that I struggle to put any faith into it!

The MJO’s expected evolution from phase 1 to 2 and then into the COD also supports these ideas to some extent. 

One thing does  seem clear though is a disconnect between the borderline rampant upper strat and the troposphere, as long as this continues, the game remains on.

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

When will you give us the GREEN light Nick!!!

Easterlies? T plus 1 maybe 2 if feeling brave.

Edited November 14, 2020 by That ECM