Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[Tim Bland]

Beautiful and finally 850s starting to drop. This would be a sustained cold spell ️

[KTtom]

Might not be showing every run, but these cracking high lattitude blocks are increasing in frequency for mid month, dare i say a little 2010 esque...

 

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Beautiful and finally 850s starting to drop. This would be a sustained cold spell ️

Dec 13th - 4 850s good to look at tho on the nhp for fun

Edited November 28, 2020 by swfc

[daz_4]

Jesus, it truly is a pain to get some cold uppers to Europe. This must be one of the most frustrating runs of all time 

[Updated_Weather]

5 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Might not be showing every run, but these cracking high lattitude blocks are increasing in frequency for mid month, dare i say a little 2010 esque...

 

Don’t say that word “2010” nothing will compare to then

[Tim Bland]

21 minutes ago, swfc said:

Great nhp profile and synoptics in fi and still zero decent 850s on the gfs 12z

All academic as it will change again by next run but Patches of -5 / -6c appearing by the end and with an easterly flow / low Dew Point, it’s enough for snow. 

[topo]

8 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Jesus, it truly is a pain to get some cold uppers to Europe. This must be one of the most frustrating runs of all time 

It's incredible.. Not below -8 even at 75degrees latitude.

 

[Methuselah]

And doesn't the 12Z come good... in the end! 

    

Only time will tell... more runs needed!

[Day 10]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Beautiful and finally 850s starting to drop. This would be a sustained cold spell ️

That would be a cracking position to be in to start Winter mate, I have Bud tinted glasses right now but hey ho it's Saturday and the pub's are shut. The Greenland Lodge looks ready to fling it's arctic doors open once again! Cheers  

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, topo said:

It's incredible.. Not below -8 even at 75degrees latitude.

 

-16 surface temps in Scandinavia sub -20 (2 meter temps) north of Iceland ? 

[That ECM]

The same people moaning about the t850’s would be saying that gfs fi won’t happen had they been lower.

[topo]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

-16 surface temps in Scandinavia sub -20 (2 meter temps) north of Iceland ? 

Ι meant in the near term.. 384 hours is like deep fantasy

[Premiere Neige]

Don't always need 850's below -10 to get a snowy set up....

The 850's were nothing special here but plenty of snow.

Edited November 28, 2020 by Premier Neige

[Snow lover 2020]

20 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

And doesn't the 12Z come good... in the end! 

    

Only time will tell... more runs needed!

Is that chart a snow event? 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I do love all the "it will never be like Dec 2010 again" or "You will never get another Decemeber 2010" comments. These replies just make it sound like you will never see a snowy December again.. 

You don't need really bitter cold synoptics to bring heavy widespread snowfall. Snowfall amounts this December could still amount to that seen in 2010. 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

Is that chart a snow event? 

No in itself, no... But it might lead up to one!

[Eskimo]

5 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

I do love all the "it will never be like Dec 2010 again" or "You will never get another Decemeber 2010" comments. These replies just make it sound like you will never see a snowy December again.. 

You don't need really bitter cold synoptics to bring heavy widespread snowfall. Snowfall amounts this December could still amount to that seen in 2010. 

The cold, rather than the snow, was the most noteworthy part of that December for most. Much of the western side of Britain didn't see astonishing amounts of snow. Here in Birmingham, we had around a total of 4-6" all month, but we did see some of the lowest temperatures ever recorded - there were certainly far snowier years/months. 

In that vein, we probably won't see a 'december 2010' in December for a long, long time (if ever). 

Edited November 28, 2020 by PerfectStorm

[Mike Poole]

I must say I was slightly surprised by the uppers in London up to just T192 on the GEFS 12z, there are some cold runs there that do the business, even this early in winter, and given the lack of cold pools hanging around right now:

Edit doesn’t seem to show when you click it, here’s the business end:

Edited November 28, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Tim Bland]

18 minutes ago, topo said:

Ι meant in the near term.. 384 hours is like deep fantasy

-16c Iceland (at sea level) &  -12c Scandinavia this week? 

[feb1991blizzard]

Striking changes on the extended GEFS - plenty of runs either show a Greenland high or would do if they went out further.

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Striking changes on the extended GEFS - plenty of runs either show a Greenland high or would do if they went out further.

Yes there is and look at that Atlantic ridge on the mean at 336 and the control is not bad either at the same time.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes there is and look at that Atlantic ridge on the mean at 336 and the control is not bad either at the same time.

For a mean at that range is pretty damn good!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes there is and look at that Atlantic ridge on the mean at 336 and the control is not bad either at the same time.

Not quite as good as i thought though, most flatten a temporary Atlantic ridge quickly rather than develop a Greeny, not surprising really.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just hope this doesn't get corrupted!

 

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Just hope this doesn't get corrupted!

 

Can we have some charts to go with that please...