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Model output discussion - into the start of Winter


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

The old thread was starting to get a bit cumbersome, so here's a fresh one to take us into the start of winter. As always, please keep it to the models and friendly in here.

If you're wanting to learn more about meteorology, please take a look at the Learning and Research area.

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
UKV (Extra subscribers)
GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

Something very odd about the output in the 6-10 day range, can’t put my finger on it. Are there any forces in place in the strat? 

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Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic

This morning's ECM shows why I don't like that evolution. The low around Biscay gets stuck as it has nowhere to go and just blasts warm air to Europe. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Another solid ECM ensemble mean this morning, with the vortex far way from its natural home:

62EFB54C-2253-40ED-BE6E-1EF702989D42.thumb.png.0156b48ac32a0519c00c23940ea02b22.png

Even the least purple contour only just clips the NE of Greenland now, leaving plenty of opportunity for blocking in useful places.  Very interesting model viewing that the moment.  @Rocheydub I don’t think the strat is involved with this evolution, the trop vortex seems very disconnected from the strongly forming strat vortex at the moment.  Let’s hope it remains so for a decent period into winter proper, to give us a decent shot or two at December cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
5 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

This morning's ECM shows why I don't like that evolution. The low around Biscay gets stuck as it has nowhere to go and just blasts warm air to Europe. 

I agree. It is a spoiler that acts as a block to any 'proper' cold air from getting to our shores. The latest extended ecm ens for debilt highlight this. They don't offer much excitement and temps and precipitation trend upwards towards the end. 

Screenshot_20201125-090712.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
19 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well the NOAA chart last evening, see below, still not going the way that the output over the last 2-3 days from EC-GFS had shown at 500 mb. Their output this morning is still not available on the site I use so unable to update there.

The refusal of NOAA to suggest a 500 mb flow from very cold sources with a general north of west flow into the Uk thence into a European trough certainly casts doubts on this happening in my view. 

 

When EC-GFS updates I'll post it with any necessary comments. 

I can't really read those charts but I can't see an awful lot of difference in the shape of the green contour lines (a more curved pattern in the Atlantic but that's about it as far as I can see) between this chart from 2010:

image.thumb.png.f5ff09b2c446e9ab9553a746100d6b42.png

...and this one from today:

image.thumb.png.b973cd7b4727b56040689b6e9c406670.png

There are some differences in the red and blue areas of course which I presume is signifying lower and higher pressure systems but what do those green lines actually show?

Honest question not a pop at that particular model

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, LRD said:

I can't really read those charts but I can't see an awful lot of difference in the shape of the green contour lines (a more curved pattern in the Atlantic but that's about it as far as I can see) between this chart from 2010:

image.thumb.png.f5ff09b2c446e9ab9553a746100d6b42.png

...and this one from today:

image.thumb.png.b973cd7b4727b56040689b6e9c406670.png

There are some differences in the red and blue areas of course which I presume is signifying lower and higher pressure systems but what do those green lines actually show?

Honest question not a pop at that particular model

 

The  green lines show the upper pattern - 2010 shows a district ridge mid Atlantic and trough into w europe

the current output is flat across the Atlantic as the ens modelling is not settled on the way forward 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

This is why I don't like anomaly charts:

image.thumb.png.48679c9a91d67528c007731f7488f02f.png

The ECM one on the left makes it appear that a nailed on long-lasting cold spell is on the way. But we're not (yet) facing that. Because pressure is so low, normally, over Greenland, that anomaly has to be huge to represent true northern blocking

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The  green lines show the upper pattern - 2010 shows a district ridge mid Atlantic and trough into w europe

the current output is flat across the Atlantic as the ens modelling is not settled on the way forward 

I can see the troughs and high pressure systems. I just can not for the life of me see the difference in the green contour lines. I'm obviously being a bit dim. Perhaps I best leave trying to read those charts

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
16 minutes ago, LRD said:

I can see the troughs and high pressure systems. I just can not for the life of me see the difference in the green contour lines. I'm obviously being a bit dim. Perhaps I best leave trying to read those charts

Im with you on the green lines the others are fairly obvious. Hopefully someone out there can give a better, laymans term explanation. I can only assume its the air flow in the stratosphere?

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

I think in the 7-10 range we have the ultimate blank canvass where a very cold spell could pop up with short notice, equally we could be left with drab mild South easterlies.

Either way its better than raging zonality and a huge Iberian Bartlett!

As we go into December we may not become rich on winter goodies but at least we are in the Casino.

Last year we never got past the door bouncers!

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The  green lines show the upper pattern - 2010 shows a district ridge mid Atlantic and trough into w europe

the current output is flat across the Atlantic as the ens modelling is not settled on the way forward 

EPS modelling looks pretty darn settled to me evidence of ridging in Atlantic being a long term feature. It’s a far cry from traditional wet and windy westerlies. 

DC2065AE-2A43-4086-9B6B-A9254BB8B17A.thumb.gif.94d018090e5b218b2c19b8a6aa1ef5be.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL

Slightly out of place here but the rainfull radar is quiet cool if you take  a look. 

We have rain moving SW to NE and then behind the front you can seen showers moving NW to SE.  You can imagine the front line in between. 

Signs of the colder weather on its way. 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

6z looks slightly flatter at 144 hrs on the gfs 6z.low pressure to North West slightly less disrupted as to say. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Too much energy running over the top which, I'd imagine, is making any high pressure difficult to build. You end up with this flabby,  salami-shaped high over the UK that just gets squeezed out eventually. 

image.thumb.png.7dfab7671ed1ee0dc4bca0f6a5a4d912.png

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
1 minute ago, swfc said:

6z looks slightly flatter at 144 hrs on the gfs 6z.low pressure to North West slightly less disrupted as to say. 

Could be a good thing? We need things a tad further east for once 

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Could actually be a better run this. High pressure migrating towards Scandinavia, low pressure sinking SSE, blocking the Azores high from nudging in and stops the pattern patterning. 

image.thumb.png.b0c4ec8891018c32008f8c2eeae2e3ee.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Fair play to gfs. Slight changes from run to run but consistent in the main. 1040 high where there is often a low feeding rubbish our way. If we don’t see a decent northerly in the next couple of weeks I would be surprised. Not great down here, talk about at the end of the line but good for many.

18C85B5B-99A3-46AB-8B37-89ADCD5CD72F.png

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Just now, PerfectStorm said:

Could actually be a better run this. High pressure migrating towards Scandinavia, low pressure sinking SSE, blocking the Azores high from nudging in and stops the pattern patterning. 

image.thumb.png.b0c4ec8891018c32008f8c2eeae2e3ee.png

Yes shame over 850s.suspect fi currently 120 hrs mark 

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