Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[tight isobar]

Classic 18z coming up.. that Atlantic waa.. is looking piercing-and will invigorate the correction!! .. another eye catching evolution...

[Mike Poole]

Pub run looking a little better for heights NW into Greenland, T114, compared to 12z T120:

[Allseasons-Si]

Better heights into Labrador/Davis strait on this run.

 

[sheikhy]

Over to the 00z!!this run might look better long term?

[Allseasons-Si]

Hmmm!!!,that east Russian block is stronger sending the trough further SW.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hmmm!!!,that east Russian block is stronger sending the trough further SW.

At the moment, I’d just like that trough in Southern Europe, and stay there!  T150:

[Eskimo]

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

At the moment, I’d just like that trough in Southern Europe, and stay there!  T150:

Yes Mike,it turned out OK at that point so all is not lost,it just looked dodgy earlier and i thought that it would push further SW

Edit: Amplification starting to show upstream at 174 off the NE'ern seaboard.

Edited November 28, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Met4Cast]

Griceland ridge incoming.. Good run so far!

[booferking]

I smell big greenie block coming net frames.

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

I smell big greenie block coming net frames.

Looks it and probably more tasty than ecm 

[Matt H]

Fair to say that the zonal flow is well and truly shut out for now... good riddance.

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run T216:

Eyes on Greenland for sure, some of us have been waiting for an op run like this.....

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS pub run T216:

Eyes on Greenland for sure, some of us have been waiting for an op run like this.....

Most direct route is this way, can't see any quick cold from Scandi or the east... Which probably means Scandi will win out in reality

[nick sussex]

If someone said you’d have the PV cleared away from Greenland and that deep low in the eastern USA helping to promote a ridge ahead of it you’d be hard pressed to find such an uninspiring load of dull nonsense downstream.

The outputs seem to be shopping at the Harrods food hall and making a meal that even the dog would turn its nose up to !

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS pub run T216:

Eyes on Greenland for sure, some of us have been waiting for an op run like this.....

And watching it’s evolving sequences.. this a very feasible 18z run ... the vortex in dissararay.. and the block formats using the evaporations well...

[Allseasons-Si]

Should that trough/low over NE states becomes cut off...then we would be in business. 

18z 222 v's 12z 226

 

[tight isobar]

Just now, nick sussex said:

If someone said you’d have the PV cleared away from Greenland and that deep low in the eastern USA helping to promote a ridge ahead of it you’d be hard pressed to find such an uninspiring load of dull nonsense downstream.

The outputs seem to be shopping at the Harrods food hall and making a meal that even the dog would turn its nose up to !

great analysis.. but the overall evolution is one of an army marches.. b4 it succeeds... plenty to decipher/mull over .

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Most direct route is this way, can't see any quick cold from Scandi or the east... Which probably means Scandi will win out in reality

I think scandi will win this battle, @Griff but it is all blocking patterns which is what all of us coldies want.  And from an imby perspective northerlies don’t deliver easily here, need easterly...maybe as we get into December, and later after the SSW!

 

[Matt H]

Very enjoyable model watching for the lockdown period even if the uppers aren’t quite there yet. Beats having endless runs just showing south westerlies all the way through winter.

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think scandi will win this battle, @Griff but it is all blocking patterns which is what all of us coldies want.  And from an imby perspective northerlies don’t deliver easily here, need easterly...maybe as we get into December, and later after the SSW!

 

Well as you know Mike quite literally your back yard is my back yard, so I'm with you on that. I also would favour a sustained easterly rather than keeping an eye on potential Atlantic activity. Although it suggests everything is edging eastwards, small footsteps and all, clearly if it ends up further west we get wet and miserable... 

Edited November 28, 2020 by Griff

[nick sussex]

I think the phrase slow burner is apt to use for the current outputs !

They seem to be taking the scenic route , the NH pattern isn’t bad for cold but they’re determined to test the patience of NW members .

 

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If someone said you’d have the PV cleared away from Greenland and that deep low in the eastern USA helping to promote a ridge ahead of it you’d be hard pressed to find such an uninspiring load of dull nonsense downstream.

The outputs seem to be shopping at the Harrods food hall and making a meal that even the dog would turn its nose up to !

LOL ,i love your humour

but i agree with you nick,we seem to be getting the scrappy-doos in this part of the world...

but i have to say though,it is better than the zonal dross that we had to put up with last year and the models do show some promise going forward,they always do

 

[Tim Bland]

16 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS pub run T216:

Eyes on Greenland for sure, some of us have been waiting for an op run like this.....

Looks fairly similar to 12z to me See below for comparison...

[Met4Cast]

A beautiful synoptic pattern spoiled by the lack of any actual cold this side of the Hemisphere LOL!