Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

That’s Scotland Feb

Here’s England CET charts 2m temps & 850 hPa

There’s now’t mild about them

Its North West England, it cannot be anywhere much North of Greater Manchester or West Yorkshire because there was not anywhere North showing on the map when i clicked, there is nothing significantly below average either.

[SLEETY]

This current situation reminds me of cold spells of the past where the cold would slowly build up,with snow arriving on the hills and  mountains first and slowly making itself down to low-levels with everyone enjoying the Winter-Wonderland landscape,eventually.

lets hope the pattern doesnt flatten out before the really cold air arrives,no sign of that happening yet.All roads seem to be heading COLD

[Geordiesnow]

29 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is the reality.

Average temperatures for next 2 weeks.

Yep, when you start seeing members posting true cold charts dating around the 10th December, you know the short to medium term is not all that cold. 

I was hoping for some eastwards shift of the centre of the trough that will head towards us so we could perhaps tap into some more Arctic air but it's probably almost meteologically impossible for that to happen. 

And as for hoping for an easterly then forget it, this low that will head towards us will push very warm air towards Scandinavia and there is no indication in the output that Scandinavia will be turning below average anytime soon. 

Still maintain, if we don't get a northerly out of this, it's a big missed opportunity. 

Edited November 29, 2020 by Geordiesnow

[Beanz]

32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is the reality.

Average temperatures for next 2 weeks.

That’s hardly t-shirt weather!

[Dancerwithwings]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its North West England, it cannot be anywhere much North of Greater Manchester or West Yorkshire because there was not anywhere North showing on the map when i clicked, there is nothing significantly below average either.

I could of swore the last time I looked the Northwest (Manchester) wasn’t in the box above in ....

[Djdazzle]

Some interest it seems - far better than the last few starts to winter. However, a significant cold spell is still an outside bet. Then again, it always is in the UK. Let’s get things into the reliable.

[snowblizzard]

Nice Greenland High building here?

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent trends this morning...

If you enjoy + NAO Atlantic weather best pop back in a few weeks time....

Steady heads required mate - plenty of time for things to go wrong. We’ve been there before. Just take each day as it comes and keep everything crossed

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I could of swore the last time I looked the Northwest (Manchester) wasn’t in the box above in ....

It tells you on the bottom of the chart i posted - 53.6N and 2W is NOT Scotland, its somewhere on the Huddersfield road (A62)

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Beanz said:

That’s hardly t-shirt weather!

Being less than T-shirt weather is not the benchmark for settling snow.

[Polar Maritime]

So it's fair to say, as the models have been showing for the past few days at least.. were heading into a cooler sometimes colder/unsettled period of weather from the N/W with some snow over high ground especially further North where snow/sleet could fall to lower levels at times. With temps over-all around avg/sometimes a little below. A seasonal avg start to Winter on the cards..

Edited November 29, 2020 by Polar Maritime

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

So it's fair to say, as the models have been showing for the past few days at least.. were heading into a cooler sometimes colder/unsettled period of weather from the N/W with some snow over high ground especially further North where snow/sleet could fall to lower levels at times. With temps over-all around avg/sometimes a little below. A seasonal avg start to Winter on the cards..

And well in line with the much-derided Met Office outlook?

[Polar Maritime]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

And well in line with the much-derided Met Office outlook?

Yes Pete, Everything certainly looking in sync, For now at least..

Edited November 29, 2020 by Polar Maritime

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Steady heads required mate - plenty of time for things to go wrong. We’ve been there before. Just take each day as it comes and keep everything crossed

With low pressure parked across Europe im very relaxed about the outlook.

There is no guarantees for us UK coldies but we are in the raffle ...

[northwestsnow]

19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It tells you on the bottom of the chart i posted - 53.6N and 2W is NOT Scotland, its somewhere on the Huddersfield road (A62)

Higher hills locally might get a bit of the magic white dust later this week mate..

I did a walk up past Tanners and onto Pots and Pans yesterday ...thats 380m asl so might take another walk up there next Saturday...

Let's get the LP established across Europe and see where we are in a weeks time , I'm optimistic things will look quite exciting ..at worst a UK high with potential for frosty weather....

Edited November 29, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Snow lover 2020]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Higher hills locally might get a bit of the magic white dust later this week mate..

I did a walk up past Tanners and onto Pots and Pans yesterday ...thats 380m asl so might take another walk up there next Saturday...

Let's get the LP established across Europe and see where we are in a weeks time , I'm optimistic things will look quite exciting ..at worst a UK high with potential for frosty weather....

Yes by the looks of charts and that low pressure going forward are going to show a winter wonderland by Christmas I think. 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

Yes by the looks of charts and that low pressure going forward are going to show a winter wonderland by Christmas I think. 

Blue Army referenced Euro low earlier in response to the strong jet off the ESB ...

Without a Euro high in place  a strong jet does not necessarily mean a +NAO flat pattern..

Edited November 29, 2020 by northwestsnow

[E17boy]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Steady heads required mate - plenty of time for things to go wrong. We’ve been there before. Just take each day as it comes and keep everything crossed

Good Afternoon peeps ,

hope you are all well and safe. Looking at the current output, I can't see much wintry potential at the moment except for the northern hills and mountains. Also as a few have mentioned evaporating cooling in heavy rain may produce some surprise sleet or wet snow down at lower levels.

At this time of year I do keep a close watch on how temperatures are doing in Eastern Europe, because if at any time we were to get winds from that direction how cold it will be will depend from where it originates. It is not all doom infact in the  next week or so temperatures in Moscow are showing a dip getting to minus 5 or 6 all associated with the Russian high I would have imagined. It is an improvement from last year I must say because if I remember right this time last year most of Europe was struggling to go below freezing, so things are looking good in that respect ( with the obvious covets that in the coming days these temperatures either stay low and spread westwards and not rise). I think what we need to look out for is some kind of substantial cold pool of air developing in Europe that will at least give us a tick in one of the boxes if that cold comes westwards.

Another area iof interest would be High pressure where this sets up or is formed will be crucial now going forward. We do need some gaps for the lows that cross north of us to give a chance for northern blocking. My instincts are telling me recently these lows are making a nw to se dive this tells me there is something going on it's not our usual west to east flow we would expect another indication that could favour us coldies ( something similar to 2008 and 2009 winter I think I might be wrong ) but I am sure we were beginning to see a Lott of liows diving south in that winter. 

So to me I think something is definately brewing but whether we get the goods in reality is another question. So many other parts of the jigsaw have to come together. It's a waiting and patience game it may be a winter like the past few that did not come to anything. Or it may be this time that the cold has got eye and direction for our little island. There will be ups and downs in the coming days and weeks but something in my heart tells me we will strike lucky somewhere.

hope you all keep safe and best wishes to all your families. Fingers crossed we may have something coming that will take our minds away from the current virus situation closer to home.

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND CONTINUES

Kind regards stay safe all

[bluearmy]

A drift on the gefs to lower heights n scandi end week 2 

this was also true on the extended eps 

and with ref to lower euro heights as discussed a few posts ago, I’ve seen them evaporate without trace within two runs before ! 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Some good posts above. I do feel it will take some patience for the snow fairy to come cast a spell for most of those living on lower ground. This week could very well see the odd wintry surprise turn up, but do feel it will be marginal and the wizard will likely target Western and Northern high ground areas with his magic white powder. Does depend on the exact track the Low takes around the UK area, as further East would certainly help to bring more Polar or Arctic Maritime sourced air and some colder 850 hPa temperatures. 

Also getting Low Pressure to rock around to our South/South-East over Europe for a while could help to eventually bring in some colder upper air from the East/North-East - even though the cold pooling over Europe and Scandinavia may not be that great currently. (Clearly the position of the Low and High Pressure systems is certainly crucial for getting the coldest, upper, air towards us from the East/North-East). Not impossible to get snow from 850 hPa temperatures between 0*C to -5*C. Especially a slack flow from the continent which people have said before can hoover in some lower dew points. 

Have no fear, though, if the dude below doesn’t come this week, then I’m sure we’ll see him blast into action over the coming few months 

Edited November 29, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
Typos as usual lol

[Beanz]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Being less than T-shirt weather is not the benchmark for settling snow.

Who said anything about snow..?  I’m not sure we’re seeing any of that in any meaningful quantity in the near future.  

However, the temps look pretty darn good for end of November, into December and bode well for a seasonal Christmas for a change.  Snow would be a bonus naturally, but achieving average is difficult enough.  
 

[jmp223420]

I still remember that seismic shift in NAO with the BFTE...Its like it feel of a cliff!  I'm much more confident of a colder than average winter than in 2019...How much colder remains the question!

[northwestsnow]

35 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

A drift on the gefs to lower heights n scandi end week 2 

this was also true on the extended eps 

and with ref to lower euro heights as discussed a few posts ago, I’ve seen them evaporate without trace within two runs before ! 

As long as there is heights in the N Atlantic I can live with that... !!

[Scandinavian High.]

3 hours ago, syed2878 said:

Interesting post John because the UK met is going along the same line they on their 6-15 outlook are not forecasting anything wintryyy for lowland u.k snowfall. I hope you don't mind me just putting their thoughts here i know there is a thread for met outlook. here is what the met forcasting. 

UK long range weather forecast

Thursday 3 Dec - Saturday 12 Dec  

High pressure and generally settled weather will likely give way to wetter, and at times windier, conditions through the first week of December. Outbreaks of rain are likely in most areas, notably northern areas at first, and perhaps more southern areas into the weekend. Gales may also develop, these most likely for exposed western areas. Later in the period it may well turn more settled, though colder, with a return of night frost and fog. Some showers are likely too, these perhaps wintry at times in the north. Temperatures may start off near normal, though often feeling colder in windier and wetter spells. Below normal temperatures are then slightly more likely for later in the period.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sun 29 Nov 2020

Saturday 12 Dec - Saturday 26 Dec  

Despite some mixed signals, the general trend suggests typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes. Cloudy and blustery conditions are still likely in the east at first. Overall, the best of the driest and brightest weather is in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is likely in colder and more unsettled spells over high ground of the north and northwest. Conditions in the southwest are likely to turn more settled through the month. There is a risk of gales, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sun 29 Nov 2020. at the moment models are looking good how ever i don't much will come off this time around.

I think they have updated it look my wintery.

The period will start unsettled across all parts of the UK, with areas of heavy rain and showers, locally of soft hail, sleet and snow likely, and possibly more widespread snow over some hills and mountains. Often windy, especially around coasts, but in quieter interludes overnight there will remain the potential for some patchy frost, and isolated mist and freezing fog. Temperatures are expected to be a below average overall. Later in this period, it could turn drier and more settled with a chance of high pressure moving in from the north, bringing brisk easterly winds. Again, where winds fall lighter, overnight frost and patchy fog is likely, this perhaps most likely in the north. Near, to slightly below, average temperatures are most likely.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sun 29 Nov 2020

[northwestsnow]

^^

Bingo !!

There we have it...Exeter come off the fence to the cold corner...

To me that suggests the Azores high ridging over the top of the UK troughing...

As recent model guidance has hinted at..

 

Edited November 29, 2020 by northwestsnow