Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[Ice Day]

Great post from Blue above.  We probably need to accept there's no deep cold coming our way in the next couple of weeks, but the building blocks are certainly there for something more 'interesting' towards Christmas! It's been a long time since I make the effort to view every run, but at the moment each are fascinating and showing loads of the 'P' word.  Hopefully through December we'll get some showing the 'S' word!?

Of course it's more than possible that this leads to absolutely nothing in the long-term, but personally I really like where things are sitting.  In the meantime, it's going to be feeling seasonal over the coming week/10 days.

[SMU]

GFS Mean 192 V the 2010 profile I said earlier

& the actual chart

Disclaimer: This isnt a forecast but a genuine comparison to show the increasing similarities...

[NewEra21]

It's a start ladies and gentlemen, it's a start!!!

Location Suffolk

Edited November 29, 2020 by NewEra21
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[Cold Winter]

It’s definitely an interesting time for model watching, more so than for quite a while I think. Ultimately no one knows where we might end up in a couple of weeks - talk of a repeat of Dec 2010 are far too premature in my opinion and we’ll never get an exact repeat anyway. But the building blocks are there to get us an interesting pattern down the line... whether it ends up good for cold fans depends on the weather gods. All we can do for now is (try to) enjoy the ride!! 

[Also, advice from a long term forum member - if you don’t let your excitement run away with you, then you won’t be disappointed if it all goes t*** up!!] 

[Methuselah]

So, here's what the ever-reliable GFS 06Z has for T+384:

    

Lots of potential for freezing fog and rime and, more importantly, I hope, enough colder air over Eastern Europe, to finally shut down any northwestward advection of warm air... I do honestly believe (hope?) that IT will come, this time... It'll just take a wee bit longer than it used to -- for obvious reasons?

[tight isobar]

Anyway let’s have a sneaky peak @the 10hpa strat probs....@going forward! .. @downwelling-January!!

[Anthony Burden]

7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

So, here's what the ever-reliable GFS 06Z has for T+384:

    

Lots of potential for freezing fog and rime and, more importantly, I hope, enough colder air over Eastern Europe, to finally shut down any northwestward advection of warm air... I do honestly believe (hope?) that IT will come, this time... It'll just take a wee bit longer than it used to -- for obvious reasons?

Yes although into fantasy island,that is the really the gold card to very cold weather over U.K.

As I have said before without becoming to boring high pressure to the north.

[SMU]

OMG how many GHs on the ENS

PTB 10!!

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

Edited November 29, 2020 by Steve Murr

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think though that he is illustrating a point, that we all know what is going to happen deep down but only IDO and myself are prepared to admit it.

The upcoming few weeks in n America are predicted to be colder than average along the eastern side, not the west though ....of course that will still kick a jet off the e seaboard 

there’s nothing wrong with a strong Atlantic jet if you have a propensity to drive wedges and there aren’t high heights over Europe - infact, without a decent Atlantic jet, I’d say you will be struggling to make enough progress against the Russian ridge to take the U.K. out of no mans land ....

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The upcoming few weeks in n America are predicted to be colder than average along the eastern side, not the west though ....of course that will still kick a jet off the e seaboard 

there’s nothing wrong with a strong Atlantic jet if you have a propensity to drive wedges and there aren’t high heights over Europe - infact, without a decent Atlantic jet, I’d say you will be struggling to make enough progress against the Russian ridge to take the U.K. out of no mans land ....

Perfect summing up !!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The upcoming few weeks in n America are predicted to be colder than average along the eastern side, not the west though ....of course that will still kick a jet off the e seaboard 

there’s nothing wrong with a strong Atlantic jet if you have a propensity to drive wedges and there aren’t high heights over Europe - infact, without a decent Atlantic jet, I’d say you will be struggling to make enough progress against the Russian ridge to take the U.K. out of no mans land ....

I just can't see any slider scenarios delivering anything more than slush, i wouldn't be getting excited even if i was still in Saddleworth at 600ft, and would certainly have a 'wait and see until T24' attitude if i was at 1000ft in Saddleworth or even Buxton.

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

OMG how many GHs on the ENS

PTB 10!!

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

some bangers in there!! And yeah pert 10- nearly the grail govener

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

OMG how many GHs on the ENS

PTB 10!!

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

With a W Canadian ridge re Enforcing and subsequently driving an e USA trough, each time that digs it potentially drives WAA towards greeny .....I would say that we either manage to drive a proper block or worst way the mobility that still exists in the pattern only provides for a wedge ....either way that should keep nw europe on the cold side of the jet. I think this is what currently provides for the sustainability of interest on here. Unless something dramatically changes upstream then it’s not a flash in the pan colder snap and something that hangs around is always liable to throw up a scenario that is unexpected and may bring proper winter at some point ....(that means snow btw) 

[wellington boot]

37 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS Mean 192 V the 2010 profile I said earlier

& the actual chart

Disclaimer: This isnt a forecast but a genuine comparison to show the increasing similarities...

Sorry but one can't see what those charts are exactly because the key information is cut off. And I'm not totally clear from your captions.

[Zak M]

P10 has a potent northerly pushing our way.. look at those uppers!

      

Edited November 29, 2020 by Zak M

[northwestsnow]

Excellent trends this morning...

If you enjoy + NAO Atlantic weather best pop back in a few weeks time....

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Sorry but one can't see what those charts are exactly because the key information is cut off. And I'm not totally clear from your captions.

Hi its just the 06z Mean chart showing the amplification in the atlantic & also the Scandi ridge allinging WNW which is classic Greenland high development profiles...

[BlueHedgehog074]

A focus on various operational models at 120 hours using their latest runs.

00Z ECMWF

06Z GFS

00Z GEM

 

06Z ICON
 

00Z NAVGEM

 

00Z UKMO
 

 

All essentially sticking to the general pattern of placing the Northern Atlantic trough over the UK with High Pressure amplifying in the mid-Atlantic. 
 

Even at 120 hours and their are some slight variations to what the models show. On the ECMWF, and especially the GEM, the vertical ridging in the mid-Atlantic is particularly wide and just that little bit more amplified than that of the ICON and the GFS. The surface ridge on those 2 models seems the most narrowest. NAVGEM, would say, is somewhere in between and the UKMO looks similar to the ECMWF with regards to that mid-Atlantic ridge. Worth saying that the NAVGEM has the widest area of upper heights covering Greenland. On the UKMO, NAVGEM, GEM and ECMWF, it has the yellow tip of the upper ridging touching Southern Greenland. ICON has it just about touching Southern Greenland, while the GFS has a bit of a gap between the yellow tip of the ridge and the Southern tip of Greenland. Overall is generally the least amplified with the ridge upstream. But not by a massive difference. Still far from flat.

Regarding events further downstream, both the upper trough and surface Low Pressure aren’t all in exactly the same place. The 06Z GFS is the most aggressive dropping the trough and surface Low to the South-West of the UK at 120 hours. Pulls in a flow from the South-East for most of the UK. While the upper trough on the other models is virtually over the UK (the odd one or two such as the UKMO and NAVGEM) perhaps centrally placing it over Western Scotland/Northern Ireland, some little differences on where the surface Low centre ends up. ICON has it to the South-East of the UK over Northern France and the North-Sea. Seemingly the best for pulling in an Arctic flow for the North, especially over Western UK. UKMO and ECMWF have it quite slack with the Low centra over Southern UK. Nick made a great point in that a slack flow can prevent the cold air getting mixed out quickly. And along with evaporative cooling, can be good for some snow to reach some lower levels at times. NAVGEM a little more North-West with the Low centre placing it over North-Western Ireland, while the GEM throws a bunch of Low centres all over the UK.

On the whole, it seems Low Pressure over the UK and amplified ridging upstream seems likely, with a chance for some rain, sleet and possibly wet snow for some.

[Griff]

26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent trends this morning...

If you enjoy + NAO Atlantic weather best pop back in a few weeks time....

That was a bit cryptic for me and caused a slight anxiety... So actually, steady as she goes -NAO on the cards

[feb1991blizzard]

Here is the reality.

Average temperatures for next 2 weeks.

[Snow lover 2020]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is the reality.

Average temperatures for next 2 weeks.

Christmas week is our only hope 

[johnholmes]

T+384 charts have about as much chance of being correct as me winning the lottery and I don't buy tickets!

IF with each new run, at the same time, and at T+24 then yes a miracle has occurred!

[booferking]

JMA 06z has everything further west and cold uppers in site.

[Dancerwithwings]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here is the reality.

Average temperatures for next 2 weeks.

That’s Scotland Feb

Here’s England CET charts 2m temps & 850 hPa

There’s now’t mild about them

[Dancerwithwings]

15 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

Christmas week is our only hope ....AND THE REST OF WINTER  

AND ....see your edited post