Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[That ECM]

Let’s see where the op sits.

[Skullzrulerz]

I would urgently be very careful comparing tonight's and as well the last few days of model runs to 2010... 

You will be very disappointed if else the reality is most (what people are looking for) is still out in "fantasyland"

Though next week will be chiller I can not see any signs of cold or anything to do with snowfall just yet if any it will be resorted to Scotland 

[Geordiesnow]

20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

-4 / -5c uppers, low DP due to the easterly flow and a cold surface gives a chance of snow / pink snow ...

Winds off a warm North Sea so dew temperatures will be high. Trust me, there is nothing wintry about that chart Steve posted there.

Of course the bigger picture on the GEM does look better but as I say, a proper cold easterly can be ruled out for the near future because Scandinavia is going to experience warmer southerly winds next week. No point of having blocking if it's all in the wrong positions! 

[Panayiotis]

Hello all, back for the winter chase and we’ve got some interesting synoptics, very different to the last few years. From experience these patterns shift East closer to the actual date. This is what I’m looking for and would put the UK under a direct notherly/colder flow. 

[Weathizard]

Surely the biggest problem at present is even with the correct Synoptics there just isn’t the cold enough air around to sustain any proper cold, it’s a problem that seems to happen in early winter a lot nowadays, things take a lot longer to cool down.

Even looking at the GFS 12z ensemble suite there’s no real proper cold members, a sustained cold flow from the east looks extremely unlikely.

Edited November 29, 2020 by Weathizard

[That ECM]

15 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I would urgently be very careful comparing tonight's and as well the last few days of model runs to 2010... 

You will be very disappointed if else the reality is most (what people are looking for) is still out in "fantasyland"

Though next week will be chiller I can not see any signs of cold or anything to do with snowfall just yet if any it will be resorted to Scotland 

It was made very clear that it wasn’t a forecast. From an educational point it is very interesting and much can be learnt. If people go down the route of not reading the posts properly and end up in a winter wonderland then that is not the responsibility of the poster.

Edited November 29, 2020 by That ECM

[phil nw.]

I would give the current pattern about 6 out of 10.

Better than many coming into December with a weak and buckling jetstream. 

The downside is the lack of true Arctic blocking to force deep cold south. 

The trough digging down into Europe this week is a good sign but we really need to see those mid latitude ridges head further north. 

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

30 minutes ago, West is Best said:

The thing is, I've been watching the GFS for months and it has forever been plumping for blocked scenarios which are, mysteriously, always out in FI. Then, up pops a return to Atlantic zonality and we are back in the usual cycle until the next FI blocking appears. Rinse and repeat. Call me a cynic but I've stopped paying any attention to anything beyond T168. 

We would need serious upstream blocking i.e. a proper Greenland High, a phenomenal Svalbard High or a fantastic mid-Atlantic High and we need them inside T168.

 

 

Not sure why anyone would pay any attention to anything past 168. But up to that point is showing blocking, so why would the zonal outlook beyond that be anymore likely than previous blocked runs given it is past 168.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Might be on it’s own in that set of ensembles though there have been a few hints of it P22 is a @Steve Murr special with that Greenland high  

[Starsail]

17 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Hello all, back for the winter chase and we’ve got some interesting synoptics, very different to the last few years. From experience these patterns shift East closer to the actual date. This is what I’m looking for and would put the UK under a direct notherly/colder flow. 

How much of a correction do we need? 100-200 miles possibly?

If so how likely is that kind of correction at this timescale?

 

[Beanz]

1 minute ago, Starsail said:

How much of a correction do we need? 100-200 miles possibly?

If so how likely is that kind of correction at this timescale?

 

I think a bit more than that, 400 miles to the east would be nice 

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Might be on it’s own in that set of ensembles though there have been a few hints of it P22 is a @Steve Murr special with that Greenland high  

looks good.

Whats been evident today ( importantly) & needs to continue is the nose of Scandi High pushing west across towards greenland in the 168 timeline. If the low hangs on to long it doesnt happen > so we want the low to clear through to the south quickly

Lets see what the ECM comes up with > 00z 240 was good but the WAA wasnt vertical enough...

[SMU]

Just to add part of the reason the models have gone west a bit overall with the lownis we have been losing eastward energy off the eastern seaboard - being replaced with more amplification 

Look at the last 3 ECM for 144 > 120 > & now 96

 

 

 

Edited November 29, 2020 by Steve Murr

[Beanz]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

looks good.

Whats been evident today ( importantly) & needs to continue is the nose of Scandi High pushing west across towards greenland in the 168 timeline. If the low hangs on to long it doesnt happen > so we want the low to clear through to the south quickly

Lets see what the ECM comes up with > 00z 240 was good but the WAA wasnt vertical enough...

...or we could just stick it all in the bin Steve!

Edited November 29, 2020 by Beanz

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I think a bit more than that, 400 miles to the east would be nice 

Know what, guys? The days when I got all hot-and-bothered, at the outside chance of a sleet blob (or even a particle of soft hail) have long gone!

[Beanz]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Know what, guys? The days when I got all hot-and-bothered, at the outside chance of a sleet blob (or even a particle of soft hail) have long gone!

I agree, but the idea of a cold hard northerly I’ll gladly take for purposes of interest.  Otherwise yes, I want snow up to my nose and nothing else is going to cut the mustard! 
 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Bitterly cold ensembles.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I agree, but the idea of a cold hard northerly I’ll gladly take for purposes of interest.  Otherwise yes, I want snow up to my nose and nothing else is going to cut the mustard! 

Are you a leprechaun?

[Panayiotis]

15 minutes ago, Starsail said:

How much of a correction do we need? 100-200 miles possibly?

If so how likely is that kind of correction at this timescale?

 

It’s not a definite but like I said they have a tendency to shift east by a few hundred miles. We see countless notherlies forecast from the models in recent years only to end up with high pressure over us. 

[northwestsnow]

We need energy heading SE at day 7 onwards ....

[Beanz]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Are you a leprechaun?

As I happens I love a bit of Christmas FM, a radio station based in Dublin.  But no, I just dream of 6’ snow drifts.  
 

Not seeing that in the current output but I do agree it wouldn’t take much for things to get interesting.  I just hope the GFS isn’t going in a direction we all fear...

[Dancerwithwings]

5 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I agree, but the idea of a cold hard northerly I’ll gladly take for purposes of interest.  Otherwise yes, I want snow up to my nose and nothing else is going to cut the mustard! 
 

 

Could be perceived as a class A post  

[swfc]

2 hours ago, PerfectStorm said:

 

I suspect ec is going to blow things up

[booferking]

Ec looks set for good amplification up stream can it make it this time.

[Weathizard]

Looks good sypnotically but again, the lack of sufficient cold to tap into is clear to see once again, large parts of Scandinavia have positive uppers grrr Nice energy going under that Mahoosive high over Eastern Europe 

Edited November 29, 2020 by Weathizard