Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[Norrance]

Hi guys. As the original poster said there is a thread for Met O forecasts so please use it.

Thanks.

[PolarWarsaw]

Fantastic to see something worth chasing so early into the new season this year, it's been an exciting watch and much more preferable to the usual dross.  However, I'm very glad to see people are catching on to what this great looking pattern will actually deliver to the surface. In my near 20 year experience of avidly watching charts on a day to basis, in winter there are only a couple of methods we a get cold and snowy spell to our shores;

1) A cold spell appears relatively out of the blue and has slight upgrades in the couple of days before it lands.

2) A little like the beast from the east a couple of years back,  cold appears in FI, alarming upgrades that smoothly count down without much of a problem. 

It's also been very noticeable throughout that entire time period that as soon as we 'miss the boat' on that first opportunity or start relying on a process of things happening that aren't yet modelled with any consistency, in a time period still over 200+ hours away that's pretty much it for us. Virtually every winter at some point there is an optimistic period of model watching where everything looks like it can't go wrong and in nearly every instance, the exact same philosophies and comments are banded about. Fairly sure the same thing has happened around this time 3/4 times from the last 5 years. 

Absolutely no disrespect whatsoever to any member that has used these comments. I am wise enough to understand that these are exactly what's required and that these comments are absolutely correct, but when any of the below statements are used, it's not a good sign;

'Potential'

'Patience'

'Day 10'

'Slowly slowly catchy monkey'

In the UK you have to be extremely clinical in taking any small glimpse of a cold spell you have and just from my experience, any time we have to sit in and wait for things to unfold down the line, they quickly fall apart and the patience is practically always rewarded...with the Atlantic returning. Let's be realistic, the climatology of the UK means that we are constantly filling up the cracks in the breaking damn wall, it's only a couple of weeks ago charts showing raging zonal winds increasing and members writing off the next month as hideous and zonal. If a pattern can quickly switch against the norm for us (IE Cold) then you see how quickly that Vortex will hug Greenland and the euro slug will slither it's way back. 

If I remember correctly, all the winter musings this year were for a chance of a chilly spell early, 2 months of a strengthening vortex and the Atlantic, with the chance of a late easing into a cold end to February/March. I completely hope that I am wrong, but my niggly feeling is that I think what we are looking at synoptically for next weekend etc, probably is the front loaded winter, the chance of early cold. We have just been so unlucky (as usual) to have not one even remotely appealing cold pool this side of the hemisphere and as soon as that chance dwindles the normal expected December patterns will return. A complete gripe here, but the old 'let Europe cool down and in the next few weeks...' must be one of the oldest wives tales in meteorological history. Yes it's useful, yes it helps - but Europe can be as cold as it wants for a couple of weeks, the second that Euro high, or a Vortex driven zonal spell blasts across Europe, it won't matter one single bit whether it was cold the month before or not, it will be mild within hours. 

My message is though for the casual reader of this thread. Lowland, widespread falling snow anywhere away from Scottish mountains and northern hilltops is VERY unlikely for the next 2 weeks, temperatures whilst chilly will not be freezing cold. My feeling is that we've missed the boat on an early cold spell and anything that is likely to follow after this initial cooler spell, is completely up in the air and climatological norm suggests that we are more likely to be back at square 1 this time in 2 weeks, as opposed to watching smooth transition to snowy cold weather.

Anyway, what I was intending on being a short message has now gone on forever . I very much hope I am wrong and with the way 2020 has gone absolutely anything is possible. A freezing cold December would certainly be rewarding for all of crap that 2020 has provided, I just can't see it. 

Let's see what the 12z has to offer, we now need to focus our attentions towards the day 10 marker, again, to find the pattern after next weekends cold, but wet spell.

 

 

[Sky High]

Well I for one am not looking for snow in the next two weeks. I'm looking for seasonal weather... which the synoptics appear to be pointing at. Some surface level cold. A bit of mist or fog. Some sunshine. Probably some rain. A raise in temperatures will absolutely happen. A return to crisp cold mornings. And snow on Christmas Day (yes and pink unicorns and all that). That for me makes an acceptable December. I don't want end to end snowfall. Just a taster of the early season and a promise of more to come. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z I think winter is coming guys..dec 1st for sure!...joking aside, there is some snow / snaw potential to..and too be honest, that’s all I care about!!!!!   

Edited November 29, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Eskimo]

Eyes down for the GFS 12z.

[Snow lover 2020]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z I think winter is coming guys..dec 1st for sure!...joking aside, there is some snow / snaw potential to..and to be honest, that’s all I care about!!!!!   

Only in the north though. We need it in the south 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

We are nearing these patterns becoming reality which is nice to see and to address those that seem to believe snowfall can only be achieved with "deep cold" that's simply not true, obviously 850 temps like that of BFTE would be fantastic but I would say for UK standards "deep cold" would probably be say -12 850 hpa and lower? but the general rule (leaving aside dewpoints) is -5 850 hpa normally starts to turn the precip wintry (sleet and wet snow in heavier bursts etc and of course the higher ASL obviously has better chance of snow) and -8 850hpa usually the indicator for snow even to lower levels but it can snow to lower levels even with less cold air (evaporative cooling etc) I got snow from this at 20M ASL   

Its a really positive outlook currently and I like the way the PV and bitterly cold air is being shown to go to the siberian side, GEFS mean at 192 and end of the run  with the really strong high to the east and should any blocking develop around Greenland could hopefully only be a matter of time before that starts to get drawn west towards us, and on top of that still worth monitoring any warming in the strat. 

And to address the post stating (also goes for other similarly negative posts, not targeting any 1 person in case it appears that way) 

"Absolutely no disrespect whatsoever to any member that has used these comments. I am wise enough to understand that these are exactly what's required and that these comments are absolutely correct, but when any of the below statements are used, it's not a good sign;

'Potential'

'Patience'

In the UK you have to be extremely clinical in taking any small glimpse of a cold spell you have and just from my experience, any time we have to sit in and wait for things to unfold down the line, they quickly fall apart and the patience is practically always rewarded...with the Atlantic returning. Let's be realistic, the climatology of the UK means that we are constantly filling up the cracks in the breaking damn wall, it's only a couple of weeks ago charts showing raging zonal winds increasing and members writing off the next month as hideous and zonal. If a pattern can quickly switch against the norm for us (IE Cold) then you see how quickly that Vortex will hug Greenland and the euro slug will slither it's way back.  Lowland, widespread falling snow anywhere away from Scottish mountains and northern hilltops is VERY unlikely for the next 2 weeks, temperatures whilst chilly will not be freezing cold." 

I respect everyone is entitled to their opinions but there really are some baffling posts on here come winter time, I have been one of the members using potential and patience as some key words, without potential what do you have?...  and patience is absolutely a key thing for any cold weather fan in the UK, how often have we had a cold spell that's shown signs of happening in the charts to becoming reality easily and without any hiccups along the way? very rarely if ever but that's part of the enjoyment well for me at least but I'm sure for some others too of watching how things develop and when the cold spells we have had, seeing those lovely snowy charts in the short range models then seeing the snow falling outside your own window   And going onto the next part of that post again it confuses me massively why some love to be so negative with any potential colder weather (understandable if cold weather isn't your preference of course) suppose its a bit like buying a lottery ticket why bother getting it if you don't have some kind of belief that u have a chance of winning a prize? And the sentence saying basically no lowland snowfall in the next few weeks as I've shown above you don't always need really cold air so I certainly wouldn't rule of the chances of some lower areas in the UK seeing some snow especially in any heavier precip but the short range models will be best to check for that. 

 

[Griff]

Fortune favours the brave... Early signs gfs might be a little more eastwards?  

(or curse of the commentator?)

[Griff]

Looks a tad further over east and perhaps a bit more amplified towards Greenland (I may have confirmation bias, well almost certainly ) 

[swfc]

Jesus christ it's not even December yet and it's a meltdown on here. Not sure what you all looking for in late novemberTamara who used to come on here often said"its just weather let it do its dance",, basically nothing past 7 days is cast in stone. The outlook going into december is cool and looking blocked ie West to east mobility looking poor. There's nothing to wintry really but see how it goes guys.

[Eskimo]

Much of the UK on the warmer side of the low, leading to pretty grim conditions (i.e. wet and windy). 


 

Edited November 29, 2020 by PerfectStorm

[swfc]

Just now, PerfectStorm said:

Much of the UK on the warmer side of the low, leading to pretty grim conditions. 



 

Exactly its just a low moving South???? Where's the excitement in that barring a bit of wintry weather over high ground. Come on please!

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Much of the UK on the warmer side of the low, leading to pretty grim conditions. 



 

Not sure where you see the UK on that chart?  

Seems to have been replaced by wind and rain... 

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Looks a tad further over east and perhaps a bit more amplified towards Greenland (I may have confirmation bias, well almost certainly ) 

Ukmo at t120 is showing a little more amplification.

[Griff]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Ukmo at t120 is showing a little more amplification.

True, overall on the same page 

[Eskimo]

The low seems to have taken an extended vacation and parked itself in the Forest of Dean. 

[northwestsnow]

Really didn't want to see this low stall like that.

[Griff]

11 minutes ago, swfc said:

Exactly its just a low moving South???? Where's the excitement in that barring a bit of wintry weather over high ground. Come on please!

I can't be the only one glass half empty fearing the next set of runs will show an Atlantic reboot and no signs of blocking... The interesting bit is that so far they haven't. 

FYI looks more amplified towards Iceland on gfs than previously. What follows next weekend is where excitement might be legitimate, if even if it's blue sky and crunchy frost!

Edited November 29, 2020 by Griff

[SMU]

This is the jet we are looking to amplify up past western Greenland

[sheikhy]

Ukmo looks pretty much like this mornings run!!it aint gone further west so gota be happy with that!!and gfs goes slightly east early on!!!

[Geordiesnow]

10 minutes ago, swfc said:

Exactly its just a low moving South???? Where's the excitement in that barring a bit of wintry weather over high ground. Come on please!

I think the hope was maybe we would see enough eastwards adjustment to tap into Arctic air but now all it looks like is a big fat trough parked right over bringing us wet at times and windy weather. Nothing cold or wintry and as I say, don't rely on the east for cold, Scandinavia is going to go well above average temperatures wise because of the big fat trough over us. 

Atlantic heights are also going to quickly reduce and the ridge will collapse because its not going to end up in Greenland so as I say, wasted opportunity I'm afraid. 

More potential for snow in a cold zonal set up than this stalling low malarkey.

[Dancerwithwings]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really didn't want to see this low stall like that.

If it were snowfall you wouldn’t be saying that 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think the hope was maybe we would see enough eastwards adjustment to tap into Arctic air but now all it looks like is a big fat trough parked right over bringing us wet at times and windy weather. Nothing cold or wintry and as I say, don't rely on the east for cold, Scandinavia is going to go well above average temperatures wise because of the big fat trough over us. 

Atlantic heights are also going to quickly reduce and the ridge will collapse because its not going to end up in Greenland so as I say, wasted opportunity I'm afraid. 

More potential for snow in a cold zonal set up than this stalling low malarkey.

I don't know, could just be the gfs on steroids but it's obsessed with Atlantic blocking which I've never seen in my short time of following here. Wouldn't surprise me if it went all in on a huge Greenland block... 

[Griff]

I keep looking west but ignoring Scandinavia...  

[daz_4]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really didn't want to see this low stall like that.

Exactly what I feared when ECM first showed this pattern at day 10. It gets stuck and then just fizzles out. Seems to me the next week is pretty much done deal and many places in Europe will enjoy very warm weekend. We are looking at the middle of December for any renewed interest. Deja vu really.