Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[sheikhy]

Ecmwf at 120 hours looking good!!!low pushed slightly further east!!very good amplification in the atlantic!!

[Allseasons-Si]

The control run finishes on a spectacular NH profile,the trop pv splattered into the mid lats.

[SMU]

144 ECM would probably be similar to UKMO PPN

[Allseasons-Si]

EC much better with better heights in the atlantic forcing the trough further SE.

[BlueHedgehog074]

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Can we have some charts to go with that please...

Will see what I can do Allseasons. Not quite their yet at 144 hours:

Cyclonic and chilly over the UK (the sort of evolution we would have likely to have expected around that time). If no mega Easterly and snow by 240 hours, then sadly the update has failed. And worse, won't be able to provide you with the charts you wanted. ;(

Edit: The again, the chart Steve Murr posted shows some snow over parts of the UK at 144 hours, so maybe that installation is starting to filter through...

Edited November 28, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

144 ECM would probably be similar to UKMO PPN

Is snow really possible in the midlands with these temps ?

Edited November 28, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Ice Day]

ECM / UKMO / GFS at 144

  

Euro's very much on the same page!

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is snow really possible in the midlands with these temps ?

Thicknesses low, -3 uppers light winds in low centre...marginal but could give some places a burying. Potential is there. Even more so if the trough drops another 100 miles E.

Edited November 28, 2020 by CreweCold

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 hours ago, E17boy said:

Morning peeps ,

hope everyone is keeping well. Just a quick shorty from me just seen the weatheronline Jan and Feb outlook if that is correct then this winter is done and in the bin. 

Hopefully that is not what is waiting for us . On their outlook Jan - high pressure south low pressure north or northwest often unsettled. Feb high pressure takes over lot of fog n frost but no talk of anything wintry. Just the hint of something wintry in December but mostly on hills.

All to be taken as a pinch of salt obviously. I know Gavs weather is doing the third and final seasonal model round up today so will see what that says.

Stay safe all

kind regards

In all honesty mate I think us lot on this forum have more chance of getting the Winter pattern correct... They were miles of the other year! And tbh even the long range Exter updates leave a lot to be desired... The best thing to do would be keep tuned to this forum for further devolpments! 

I've not been ramping much at all lately, but I actually feel a little more optimistic for the coming few weeks... The GFS ensembles are now starting to churn out a fair few colder runs, and I'm beginning to notice some decent cold pools beginning to appear a little further down the line... Let's worry about December and cross the New Year bridge closer to the time... I'm gutted santa can't work due to covid restrictions, but rest assured I will be ordering a mother of all cold snaps when I contact him on zoom later...

[Eskimo]

Somewhere above 2-300m based on this chart:

Edited November 28, 2020 by PerfectStorm

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Thicknesses low, -3 uppers light winds in low centre...marginal but could give some places a burying. Potential is there. Even more so if the trough drops another 50/100 miles E.

Aye, snow possible definitely off UKMO and EC, wet at low levels, dumping hills, do not want GFS to be correct, no snow off that

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is snow really possible in the midlands with these temps ?

Remember a snow event in Mid Wales in November 2007 with -2c uppers. If due points are low and evaporative cooling is in action don't rule anything out.

[northwestsnow]

Hoping the Euro low can assist in that collapsing Atlantic  high at day 8

[MP-R]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is snow really possible in the midlands with these temps ?

Marginal but snow fell in the West Country last year on November 14th under uppers of -2/3C.

[Tim Bland]

Low stalls for a while in the south...off to find the wife a spa in the chilterns next weekend

[northwestsnow]

Not convinced about snow unless you are up north with 250m minimum...

But would be delighted to be very wrong!

[Premiere Neige]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

ECM / UKMO / GFS at 144

  

Euro's very much on the same page!

To my very untrained, amateur eye, the low in the New Foundland area on the ECM looks more flabby and less "energetic" than on the UKMO. Would that low on the UKMO be more likely to scupper the high building north into Greenland?

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, snow possible definitely off UKMO and EC, wet at low levels, dumping hills, do not want GFS to be correct, no snow off that

Yes ec  would deliver here  great run 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Low stalls for a while in the south...off to find the wife a spa in the chilterns next weekend

Aye, hate the GFS position, rain dominant from Cheshire Gap, want it further SW like ec/ukmo

[northwestsnow]

Day 8... are we seeing wedges appearing ?

[sheikhy]

Very good ecm run this evening!!pushed everything eastwards slightly!!another push tomorrow and bingo i think!!!❄

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Very good ecm run this evening!!pushed everything eastwards slightly!!another push tomorrow and bingo i think!!!❄

Sums up how strange the evolving pattern is.. we are looking for eastward corrections! With this a week away a 100 miles to east is nothing.. we could be spending this week slidergating.. last one I recall was pretty much the same time 3 years ago...

[BlueHedgehog074]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 8... are we seeing wedges appearing ?

Looks like it with that little area of High Pressure developing directly to the North of the UK. May help that Low out West to slide under and probably follow a similar path of the earlier Low, perhaps even merging with it.

@CreweCold I feel summed it up well.

Edited November 28, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
Typing errors

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 8... are we seeing wedges appearing ?

Yes. Essentially the Atlantic trough is being slaughtered by both the Azores HP wanting to head NW and the heights to our E

[tight isobar]

Very fine lines/margins this evening... looking @850hpas @even 72 hrs out is fraught!!!.. -However there is basically cross model agree @around 144hrs.. and even via now timings...minor tweaks =big peaks.. and the latter modelled tri n-hemispheric vortex profiles are something to set the alarms ringing... into December

Edited November 28, 2020 by tight isobar