Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[Snow lover 2020]

Can someone show me the models which show a cold snowy December week? 

[jules216]

The static low to the east of Slovakia did the job for me, it looked for a while that Tatra mountain shadow will prevent me from any snow but once uppers felll below -9 the convection broke trough last night resulting in my town receiving more snow then pretty much any location in Slovakia. This is the earliest snow accumulation in many years. This will thaw in Thursday when we will be on the wrong side of low pressure but indications are that temperatures will once again tumble below average after weekend, fingers crossed. Before hand a nice few cold night ahead. The mean between 20/11 and 03/12 will be about 4C below average thanks to inversion cold early and now proper good synoptic. Fingers crossed UK/IE will tap in to some snow soon. Pictures 2 and 3 are my balcony views this morning

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

Can someone show me the models which show a cold snowy December week? 

 

[TSNWK]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Mid to longer term clusters still look quite blocked, far from typical weather and our usual zonal Atlantic onslaught at this time of year! Certainly some potential routes to proper cold showing up.

And if I'm reading those correctly not one cluster is suggesting Euro heights for the next couple of weeks - that has to be good thing and I think most will be content on taking our chances on the ebb and flow of what happens in regard to the detail.

[Daniel*]

People keep talking about near average temperatures okay it may not be well below average, but temps look comfortably below. A more winter feel will develop this week.

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

People keep talking about near average temperatures okay it may not be well below average, but temps look comfortably below. A more winter feel will develop this week.

Thanks Daniel and if that is for London City ( sea level right in the heart of  London  ) then I think it reasonable to take 1 or 2 of all those readings for the more general populace - we are actually pretty close to a decent cold spell here - I couple of unforecasted tweeks in the right direction is all we need to be in ice day and on the right side of marginal...

[captaincroc]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

People keep talking about near average temperatures okay it may not be well below average, but temps look comfortably below. A more winter feel will develop this week.

To be honest, I know most are looking for -10 uppers and a cracking freeze (myself included!) but I'm just so looking forward to a seasonal, Christmas feel this week...something we haven't had for many years.

In regards to the charts this morning, most look odd to me in their later charts. I think they are trying to figure out this rare setup or slack pressure after the initial low dives and fills.

[SMU]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thanks Daniel and if that is for London City ( sea level right in the heart of  London  ) then I think it reasonable to take 1 or 2 of all those readings for the more general populace - we are actually pretty close to a decent cold spell here - I couple of unforecasted tweeks in the right direction is all we need to be in ice day and on the right side of marginal...

Biggin Hill

[sheikhy]

17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Biggin Hill

Looks cold!!any news on latest 06z icon for the short term?

[Iceaxecrampon]

49 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

Can someone show me the models which show a cold snowy December week? 

 

January - near enough.

 

[sheikhy]

Screw it just checked!!!!a brilliant icon!!low thicknesses and everything further east at 90 hours!!!❄

[chris55]

GFS day 10 better than ECM for the same period. Though at day 10 it’s just conjecture at this point. 

GFS actually starting to draw down some colder 850s into the mix with a more northerly flow

 

ECM a little flatter, though still cold at the surface

 

 

GFS has a nice little slider at 216 as well which would probably deliver some snowfall on its eastern flank! 

 

Overall a cold set up on both models, nothing to extreme, and we’ll have to wait and see if it’s cold enough for snow away from high ground.

Not a bad place to be as we start winter officially.

 

[Snow lover 2020]

3 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

 

January - near enough.

 

Thank you but I mean snow for Dec week this year? 

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Screw it just checked!!!!a brilliant icon!!low thicknesses and everything further east at 90 hours!!!❄

Should we be worried These eastward shunts of the end week low pressure across the models is indication of new signal that is up ticking the jet and all the risks that might entail in mid to longer term...

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

So the EC mean moving towards a collapsing Atlantic high longer term.

Hopefully the Euro low anomaly will assist us and stop a +NAO setting up...

Could be some cold frosty weather on offer further into December ...

Well the ECM at T+240 looks like the next frame (if there was one) would show the Atlantic returning in some way, so perhaps something to keep an eye on. Long way out though obviously.

[Iceaxecrampon]

4 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:

Thank you but I mean snow for Dec week this year? 

Lol - yes but just an example of what to look for in a Model Setup.

The posted 2010 chart is a peach - once in a generation round here at sea level.

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Should we be worried These eastward shunts of the end week low pressure across the models is indication of new signal that is up ticking the jet and all the risks that might entail in mid to longer term...

Dont worry > we are talking very small increments of less than 100 miles

[sheikhy]

Gfs continues its way south and east at 72 hours!!keep going❄

[Beanz]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Interesting disconnect between bbc and met for later in the week. ECM for BBC? 

I don't think there is a connection between the MetO and BBC is there?

[kold weather]

Moving ever closer towards a marginal snow event late this week. We need to watch the left hand side of any LP that forms as that will bve where the cold air will orginally tuck into the developing low. If the LP does then eventually swing back the threat will then move towards the tigh hand side of the low.

Surprising amount of models are showing snow at least for some of the time on Thursday/Friday, especially further north. Whilst it is likely to be marginal, and high ground will be of real benefit, its close enough to warrant a close eye, even a slight upgrade will increase the risks significantly.

Longer term things still look really interesting, still precious little hints off mild air. Still some uncertainty though just how much deep cold air can get pushed down towards Europe, but with such a sustained period of below average temperatures we increasingly will be less reliant on deep cold to do the job, especially in set-ups where we pull air off Europe.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, GFS certainly improving, wet snow certainly possible at low levels, Wales 250m or so up the place to be though

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, GFS certainly improving, wet snow certainly possible at low levels, Wales 250m or so up the place to be though

If things keep moving further south and east dont think it will be just high ground getting a good whack of snow!!!the trend is very good in the last 24 hours and needs watching!!!

[Methuselah]

Could be some tasty convection, over the southern North Sea, come the weekend?

    

I'll tell @Zak M to keep his eyes peeled!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Wow guys, I've not been so excited since Borris announced the first Lockdown... Has strange as that may seem.. Tell you what GFS ens are bringing alot of colder options to the table, and there could well be fine margins of falling snow during the next 10 day's or so! Perhaps the mods may soon be interested in a little competition, regarding the first place to record falling snow... When and where!! Let's keep the excitement going I say, its been a while since we had these kind of encouraging factors.... Long may it continue..

[Yarmy]

19 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I don't think there is a connection between the MetO and BBC is there?

Not anymore (apart from weather warnings, I think?).

They put the services out to tender a year or so back, and awarded the contract to Meteogroup who promised they could give them hourly forecasts at 16 days out.