Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Top image interesting. Just did a quick and dirty assessment and came up with:

4 with a north easterly component 
18 easterly 
4 westerly
4 north westerly 
1 south westerly 
1 northerly 

Control please.. tramlines into uk which run all the way back to Khagistan .. 

[phil nw.]

Just on the wider picture i can't see any return to mild in the next 10 days on current ECM output.

Once the trough drops through into Europe we look like staying on the polar side of the jet with a probable cut off low to our south we will likely see a cyclonic easterly for a while.Not very cold but it will keep us on the colder side.

We just need some better heights further north to bring some deeper cold south than which is currently showing.

ECM mean day10

Not a bad pattern though,a sort of holding set up as i said before with a weak Atlantic and a pv still unable to acquire a long term stay over Greenland.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Not feeling it this year Feb?

I have to say I am more optimistic about seeing some of the white stuff this Winter than I have for a few years.

I think we will need more than one bite of the cherry to see anything resembling a classic cold spell but I can see us lucking out at some point between now and Christmas.

Even FI on most of the latest runs dont seem to be keen on lows driving West to East so we only need a few "wedges" to our North to give us a dumping if the Jet stays predominantly South?

Just need the continent to cool down a little more and we could be in business!

Anyway eyes down for the 12zs.....

Someone somewhere might even be seeing snow before the end of the week!  ❄

 

Back loaded this year, against nina climatology, last half of Feb for me, reason being when the atmosphere / ocean starts coupling the nina might not be as strong and weak nina's and enso neutral's on the nina side of neutral have a strong correlation with late Easterlies, not sure if the QBO east downwelling or at least a weakening of the Westerlies will come in time to save us, if it does then SSW may come earlier and it could be a 'winter of 2 halves'. Only low-medium confidence in my winter forecast this year, because of the uncertainties of strong nina and even more than that because i haven't actually built any analogues at all, so doing it from memory rather than actually studying, one other problem for any cold before the back end of winter, and probably the biggest is the PDO region, if the SST's in that region stay warm, then forget it until Feb at the earliest.

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Just on the wider picture i can't see any return to mild in the next 10 days on current ECM output.

Once the trough drops through into Europe we look like staying on the polar side of the jet with a probable cut off low to our south we will likely see a cyclonic easterly for a while.Not very cold but it will keep us on the colder side.

We just need some better heights further north to bring some deeper cold south than which is currently showing.

ECM mean day10

Not a bad pattern though,a sort of holding set up as i said before with a weak Atlantic and a pv still unable to acquire a long term stay over Greenland.

I wonder if the Vortex has developed Greenland fatigue and has become bored of it?  Hopefully it will be happy in its new accommodation over Siberia. 

At least as longs as the blue and purple monster stays over on that side most of the time, should allow room for heights to stay high to our West and perhaps North too, preventing the NAO getting into too much of a positive territory.

As some of you say, though, possible wintry interest for some this week. Most likely over hills I feel, but definitely can’t rule out some falling sleet or wet snow to lower levels. After all, even if 850 hPa temperatures don’t get to -5*C or below, other elements such as low thicknesses, low dewpoints and a lack of wind can become a friend for some lower level sleet or snow. Particularly in frontal situations. 

[Eskimo]

I'm sure it's already been posted, but the ECM shows quite a few snow chances in heavier bursts of precipitation during friday into saturday as the low wraps around. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by PerfectStorm

[Drifter]

46 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Top image interesting. Just did a quick and dirty assessment and came up with:

4 with a north easterly component 
18 easterly 
4 westerly
4 north westerly 
1 south westerly 
1 northerly 

I know where my money would go

[Weathizard]

Where does the idea about the continent not taking long to create cold pooling come from? Surely with a ‘warm’ southerly over most of Scandinavia, that won’t exactly promote cold pooling, quite the opposite surely?

There’s no real sign of proper cold to our east amongst the ensemble suites, it will be colder than average outside but not conducive to snowfall, for me I’m mildly frustrated to see a set up coming into a reliable timeframe that in many winters would deliver snowfall but this time will probably be cold rain on a bitter wind.

Is it me or has it become more noticeable over recent years that there is a lack of cold air to tap into in early winter? Wondering if it’s just my imagination.

 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Automated forecasts now beginning to catch up with the models....

Up here temps sub zero by night thurs night onwards ,and only 2 to 4 degrees through the day..

Consequence of the trough filling and moving south leaving us under stagnant cold air  ...

Get the Christmas   up boys n gals, will be very seasonal in a few days time...

 

[Eskimo]

12 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Is it me or has it become more noticeable over recent years that there is a lack of cold air to tap into in early winter? Wondering if it’s just my imagination.

Not sure that's the case really. 60 years ago to this day looks fairly similar to be honest in terms of both depth and distribution of cold air. Bear in mind the scales aren't the same on both charts as the archived image bottoms out at -28C. 

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by PerfectStorm

[Relativistic]

27 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

...

Is it me or has it become more noticeable over recent years that there is a lack of cold air to tap into in early winter? Wondering if it’s just my imagination.

Seems more likely to pool up around North America.

[Blessed Weather]

Recent posts discussing the possibility of a SSW have been moved to the appropriate thread. It's OK to include a strat chart in this thread as part of a wider discussion of model output, but posts only about the strat should be in the thread below please. Thanks.

 

[Geordiesnow]

34 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Where does the idea about the continent not taking long to create cold pooling come from? Surely with a ‘warm’ southerly over most of Scandinavia, that won’t exactly promote cold pooling, quite the opposite surely?

There’s no real sign of proper cold to our east amongst the ensemble suites, it will be colder than average outside but not conducive to snowfall, for me I’m mildly frustrated to see a set up coming into a reliable timeframe that in many winters would deliver snowfall but this time will probably be cold rain on a bitter wind.

Is it me or has it become more noticeable over recent years that there is a lack of cold air to tap into in early winter? Wondering if it’s just my imagination.

 

 

 

Hear hear. Some sence of reality needs to be taken on board here because I'm very underwhelmed with the output. You can have all thee blocking in place but if its all in the wrong places and the troughs are in the wrong places then it's not much use. 

And yes Scandinavia and western Russia in general has warmed significantly in the past 10 years especially. Its getting rarer and rarer seeing a deep cold pool forming there(hence why the Baltic sea is getting less sea ice as time goes on) and the Russian high gaining more strength which does nothing to aid cold weather over the UK. Just seeing the upper air temperatures forecast for Scandinavia in the near future is mind boggling, full of positive air temperatures in DECEMBER! Bound to cause some snow melt I'm sure. 

Climate is warming, cold air is harder to come by and this set up is perhaps indication of a changing climate, the charts look more like mid October than the start of December. 

[Skullzrulerz]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

06z Mean still heading for greenland > moreso than 00z

That's great news for fans that want some Cold Rain 

Sadly there is not enough cold air to tap into

[Wivenswold]

Keep the faith, this winter is not exactly starting in normal fashion. It's a very good sign. Patience. 

[Radiating Dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

That's great news for fans that want some Cold Rain 

Sadly there is not enough cold air to tap into

Can we get away from this cold air myth. We have the ECM showing a possible snow event this Friday.

We do not need -10c 850s for snow. Yes, it is great when they come along but you can get snow from 0c 850s under the right synoptic conditions.

Nobody is forecasting 100cm of snow, just commenting on the runs and continued build up of higher pressure in the Greenland locale.

Edited November 30, 2020 by Radiating Dendrite
word added

[Climate Man]

Not sure a rise of a fraction of a degree in my time of weather watching makes a difference in itself. However,  associated pattern changes do and North America seems to have had first pick for cold over the last few winters with a corresponding rise over Europe. 

[Eskimo]

15 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Not sure a rise of a fraction of a degree in my time of weather watching makes a difference in itself. However,  associated pattern changes do and North America seems to have had first pick for cold over the last few winters with a corresponding rise over Europe. 

I think that's a fairly typical occurrence. When North America go into the freezer, the cold air normally ramps up the jet - the sharper the temperature gradient, the deeper the storms tend to be. This in turn creates our infamous westerly/south-westerly flow, bringing warmer, more moist air. 

If you flip that pattern and North America see warmer than average temperatures, the Jet weakens, meanders southward, allowing blocking to occur and sometimes puts the Europe into the freezer.

This is North America in a weeks time - positively balmy. Because of this, we see blocking highs form in the Atlantic. 

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Eskimo

[Eskimo]

Going to be a very cold Friday morning according to the latest ICON. Slack flow and barely a breath of wind = sharp frost and low minima. Guessing -2/-4C in town/cities. -4/-6 in rural areas, especially the further west you are. 

Will be an ice day for some central areas through Friday. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Eskimo

[Chesil View]

54 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Can we get away from this cold air myth. We have the ECM showing a possible snow event this Friday.

We do not need -10c 850s for snow. Yes, it is great when they come along but you can get snow from 0c 850s under the right synoptic conditions.

Nobody is forecasting 100cm of snow, just commenting on the runs and continued build up of higher pressure in the Greenland locale.

Couldn't agree more RD. It is complete balderdash to suggest that minus 10c 850's are needed for snow to fall. I posted it last night and I'll post it again now the most extreme snowfall of the last 50 years here in south west England. The great Blizzard of February 1978 gave up to 18 inches of level snow and drifts up to 30 feet deep with 850's of minus 2-3c. 

[Methuselah]

Do we have to have very same argument, year in and year out? Who's ever suggested that uppers of -10C are essential for snow, anyway!

[sheikhy]

Icon looking tasty again for the end of the week but this eastward shift seems to maybe have flattened things out in the long run on the icon?

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Icon looking tasty again for the end of the week but this eastward shift seems to maybe have flattened things out in the long run on the icon?

I hope not.. as has been a nagging doubt for me

[TSNWK]

9 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Do we have to have very same argument, year in and year out? Who's ever suggested that uppers of -10C are essential for snow, anyway!

Yes! But boy they make a rather spiffin streamer or two.. with powder swirling about... 

[mushymanrob]

For snow you need all of these
500hpa values of -27c or lower
850 values of -7c or lower
528 dam or lower
dew points of 0c or lower

according to this site
 

Basic Snow Forecasting Guide

UKWEATHER.WORDPRESS.COM

---

If you're looking how to forecast snow, then you've come to the right place. In the following guide I'm going to be showing...

Edited November 30, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
Trying to remove images at bottom

[Allseasons-Si]

16 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Icon looking tasty again for the end of the week but this eastward shift seems to maybe have flattened things out in the long run on the icon?

No shakey,i would say it is fairly similar to this morning's run(00z)

168 v's 180

i think it's a slight upgrade with more of a neg tilted trough and slightly more amplified off the NE seaboard.

Edited November 30, 2020 by Allseasons-si
cut long space out