Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[northwestsnow]

The above looks excellent for Pennine areas ...

Don't think my 200m will be enough later this week but the higher hills near me at 350m should do well,precip depending !!

[iand61]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The above looks excellent for Pennine areas ...

Don't think my 200m will be enough later this week but the higher hills near me at 350m should do well,precip depending !!

Sorry but with me being the eternal pessimist when it comes to snow, I’m still expecting someone else to end up pinching this from right under our noses at the last minute.

 

[desverger2]

2 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Sorry but with me being the eternal pessimist when it comes to snow, I’m still expecting someone else to end up pinching this from right under our eyeballs

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by desverger2

[iand61]

Just now, desverger2 said:

The low will continue to move East as mentioned yesterday. Always does in this situation. I think its an eastern UK event and maybe an event for no one if it continues to move east at this rate

Probably plaster the Low Countries then

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Sorry but with me being the eternal pessimist when it comes to snow, I’m still expecting someone else to end up pinching this from right under our noses at the last minute.

 

At least by fri onwards we will see frosts developing which will be good ...

[Allseasons-Si]

That ECM day ten mean is pretty damn good folks

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, iand61 said:

Probably plaster the Low Countries then

I agree with Deverger. There is almost always a move east as has been happening. We will be within T-72 tomorrow and this is when you would normally see the biggest shift east between 48 and 72 hours. I do think someone in the East at low level will see a cm or 2 or a dusting. Furthest West cut off point probably Sheffield

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That ECM day ten mean is pretty damn good folks

 

Look at that beauty of a low pressure anomaly across Southern Euroland !

[iand61]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

At least by fri onwards we will see frosts developing which will be good ...

Yeah I’ll take a period of frost leading towards Christmas.

Some snow would be nice for the main course but cold and sunshine will do for starters.

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Look at that beauty of a low pressure anomaly across Southern Euroland !

Yeah,Genoa low exactly where we want it and that's the mean.

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[northwestsnow]

EC mean is pretty much below average 850s right out to day 10....

Under a slack stagnant set up the temps at the surface will be very suppressed I imagine ... freezing fog perhaps?

[LRD]

Been watching the GFS spaghetti on WZ for the last few days for evidence of a lowering of those 850s

The average seems to be gradually dropping but nothing dramatic yet. Right in deepest FI there is clustering around -2 and -4 but some warmer runs too

Op on the warm side of the pack at times in FI

These aren't infallible of course but if there is to be a change to cooler or warmer weather clues can sometimes appear here. Got to be said we're not quite seeing truly hair-raising runs just yet

[syed2878]

3 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Yep. Dry, chilly, and festive. A UK High being something I would choose over what the 12Z GFS shows at a similar time frame of bringing the Atlantic back in. 

 I think that the GFS today 12 hours run is thought of in line with thoughts from the Met they are going for slightly above average 10th from mid December onwards let’s hope the four once are wrong mind you they did stress it’s a low confidence forecast

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Just chucking some of the GEM ensembles into the mix think @Steve Murr will like the look of some of those  

[northwestsnow]

EC is cold, really cold for the UK..temps really suppressed Thurs onwards...

[SMU]

Number 8 please!!

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean is pretty much below average 850s right out to day 10....

Under a slack stagnant set up the temps at the surface will be very suppressed I imagine ... freezing fog perhaps?

Yep

And the snowpack still on the ground if any...CRUNCH!!! CRUNCH!!!

ECM 850's and pressure...

getting close to that magical -5 iso now,looking for slight upgrades on that though but nothing to be sniffed at at this time of the year

a pressure rise toward the end so def some frost and possibly some freezing fog as you pointed out.

 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yep

And the snowpack still on the ground if any...CRUNCH!!! CRUNCH!!!

ECM 850's and pressure...

getting close to that magical -5 now iso,looking for slight upgrades on that though but nothing to be sniffed at at this time of the year

a pressure rise toward the end so def some frost and possibly some freezing fog as you pointed out.

 

 

 

WHAT I TAKE FROM THAT IS MANY MANY MORE ENSEMBLES ARE AT THE -5 LINE AND LOWER BETWEEN THE 3RD AND 5TH. KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BECAUSE SNOW CHANCES ARE DEFINITELY THERE FOR WEEKS END

The run sits above the mean in fact at times in this period. The models are starting to pick up on a building cold pool.

Edited November 30, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[LRD]

7 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Just chucking some of the GEM ensembles into the mix think @Steve Murr will like the look of some of those  

Can I have a No 8 to start, please, followed by a No 15? 

[Weather-history]

There are some ridiculous snow spikes on the GFS ensembles

For instance, this ensemble gives 26cm of snow for my area

This ensemble gives 18cm for London area

[syed2878]

7 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 I think the GFS 12 hours run is in line with thoughts from UKMO if you look at their long range forecast they are going slitely above avrage temps from mid Dec. Mind you they did stress it is low confidence atm. 

Monday 14 Dec - Monday 28 Dec  

Despite some mixed signals, typical early winter weather with periods of persistent rain and showery interludes seems slightly more likely, with winds and weather systems more likely to arrive from the Atlantic. Although confidence is low, in this pattern the best of the driest and brightest weather will be in the south and east. Frost and fog patches are likely during any settled spells, and any wintry precipitation is most likely over high ground of the north and northwest. Conditions in the southwest could turn more settled through the month. There is a risk of gales at times, with the strongest winds being seen to the north and northwest. Temperatures overall likely to be near or slightly above average.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Mon 30 Nov 2020.

 

[Updated_Weather]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

WHAT I TAKE FROM THAT IS MANY MANY MORE ENSEMBLES ARE AT THE -5 LINE AND LOWER BETWEEN THE 3RD AND 5TH. KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BECAUSE SNOW CHANCES ARE DEFINITELY THERE FOR WEEKS END

The run sits above the mean in fact at times in this period. The models are starting to pick up on a building cold pool.

Are you okay? Was there any need to shout

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

There are some ridiculous snow spikes on the GFS ensembles

For instance, this ensemble gives 26cm of snow for my area

This ensemble gives 18cm for London area

This could turn into an event that unfolds under our eyes. I cant wait for it to get into higher resolution timeframe

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Can I have a No 8 to start, please, followed by a No 15? 

You can have a also as that would definitely be a “substantial meal” fora coldie.

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

There are some ridiculous snow spikes on the GFS ensembles

For instance, this ensemble gives 26cm of snow for my area

This ensemble gives 18cm for London area

You lot laughing at WH's post...it could come to reality