Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[Ice Day]

The pub run now toying with a slider at 174!!!

Things seem to be on the up at the moment, make no mistake!

[nick sussex]

January 6th 1994 .

Who remembers that date especially if you lived in the se ? One of the best examples of heavy snow which settled to quite a few inches in places with seemingly not that cold upper air temps where evaporative cooling played a key role .

So if you’re not going to have deep upper cold the key is that slack flow which we do see in the outputs .

[Griff]

Late to the party, sounds like it's been a quiet day around here and I've not missed much, JFF looking to next week latest GFS run seems colder... But I've learnt today 850s are everything!

[northwestsnow]

Loving 18z....

Cold all the way....

Ho ho ho...

[Froze were the Days]

hhmmmm...the ec46's which were so poor and misguided quite a few back in January/February 2019 I do believe.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

January 6th 1994 .

Who remembers that date especially if you lived in the se ? One of the best examples of heavy snow which settled to quite a few inches in places with seemingly not that cold upper air temps where evaporative cooling played a key role .

So if you’re not going to have deep upper cold the key is that slack flow which we do see in the outputs .

Was that returning polar maritime where London got 2 inches?, 1 inch was forecast by local forecasters in Birmingham but areas in North Birmingham were likely to be the ones to miss out, ended up dry in South Birmingham at altitude -not even rain - missed us!

[SMU]

Atlantic hits a wall & gives up bending away south...

Cold uppers in the mix over the UK

[Allseasons-Si]

Well the 18z gets that Genoa low in place at 210 but where do we go from here

wedges!!!

 

 

[Bullseye]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

hhmmmm...the ec46's which were so poor and misguided quite a few back in January/February 2019 I do believe.

Still have nightmares of last year, was quite set on colder weather in latter part of Dec 2019!

Feb 2018 I think it was which it called winter off and then you know what happened at end of Feb and start of March. 

 

Third time lucky and all that

[Eskimo]

Nearly all the GFS ens send a swirling band of precipitation back into the UK from the east on Friday - the minor variances are the exact position and depth of cold around it, which will ultimately determine who/where sees snow, if at all. 

The main caveat would be that air coming off the North Sea this time of year will carry higher dew points so it's highly likely lowland areas would miss out. Elevation is certainly key to offset that issue. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Eskimo

[northwestsnow]

Classic 80s chart...

On the back of a cold spell...

Exciting !!

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Was that returning polar maritime where London got 2 inches?, 1 inch was forecast by local forecasters in Birmingham but areas in North Birmingham were likely to be the ones to miss out, ended up dry in South Birmingham at altitude -not even rain - missed us!

It was an area of rain that moved in from the Channel and then turned to snow , it tracked ne . I remember it well and spent most of the evening in shock and elation ! I was living in Kingston at the time.  

[sheikhy]

Absolutely fantastic 18z!!snow end of this week for some and then very cold forever lol!!whatever snow settles this week could potentially stick around for some time!

[Allseasons-Si]

If this comes off...

wedges ='s sledges big time

what a run.

 

[Scott Ingham]

I think the over riding theme. Its going to be COLD and atm for quite some time! Its going to be a shock to the system for the country Thursday onwards. Surpises pop precipitation wise within 36 hours. FORGET the 850s. REMEMBER entrenched cold and UNDERSTAND snow can and will pop up at short notice. This is all one big feedback mechanism to get colder and colder and colder and cold is hard to shift.

Edited November 30, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Mr Frost]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

Nearly all the GFS ens send a swirling band of precipitation back into the UK from the east on Friday - the minor variances are the exact position and depth of cold around it, which will ultimately determine who/where sees snow, if at all. 

Noticing all the Met Office automated forecasts updating in these areas below to rain/sleet/snowfall around these times - higher ground event mostly of course! (200/300 meters)

Even @Kirkcaldy Weather would scrape some sleet from this! 

Friday 3:00

 

06:00

 

09:00

 

Will it still show the same track/detail tomorrow though!? 

Unbelievable model/chart viewing at the moment - lots to discuss/sweat over from short term to long term! 

[SMU]

^^^ lovely UKv charts however based on todays guidence you would assume that its all coming south - At this stage I would be thinking Scotland is to far North...

Edited November 30, 2020 by Steve Murr

[northwestsnow]

By this stage frozen ponds etc on the menu...

Very very cold 18z...

[Eskimo]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Absolutely fantastic 18z!!snow end of this week for some and then very cold forever lol!!whatever snow settles this week could potentially stick around for some time!

It would certainly feel bitter under the dry, continental feed. Low dew points, ice days and harsh frosts. 

[Matt H]

Ties in well to the ECM monthly.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Weather-wise, the outputs must be making a of people in here feel glad that they’re not entering December 2019. 

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

^^^ lovely UKv charts however based on todays guidence you would assume that its all coming south - At this stage I would be thinking Scotland is to far North...

Im on exactly the same page. We know from model watching this is coming south inside the next 24 hours to 36

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Noticing all the Met Office automated forecasts updating in these areas below to rain/sleet/snowfall around these times - higher ground event mostly of course! (200/300 meters)

Even @Kirkcaldy Weather would scrape some sleet from this! 

Friday 3:00

 

06:00

 

09:00

 

Will it still show the same track/detail tomorrow though!? 

Unbelievable model/chart viewing at the moment - lots to discuss/sweat over from short term to long term! 

 

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

^^^ lovely UKv charts however based on todays guidence you would assume that its all coming south - At this stage I would be thinking Scotland is to far North...

To both I say   best just taking the short range models each day, little changes in the position of the low will likely make big changes overall though I do like the positioning of the front for Fridays latest fax chart 

[Eskimo]

This is what I like to call 'Boreas's Nose'. It's basically the Scandinavian high saying "nope not today Zeus"

Edited November 30, 2020 by Eskimo

[Allseasons-Si]

Big Scandi ridge on this run and trough out in the Atlantic disrupting far out west with no zonal in sight,this is in my eyes an epic run

thank you pub run