Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[winterof79]

For balance here are the ensembles for Central Northern England which are quite cold. 

The met sees snow for some... 

Thursday through until Saturday will be cold and windy. Showers or longer spells of rain are likely, these sometimes heavy with some snow on hills and perhaps to low levels. 

Edited December 1, 2020 by winterof79

[bluearmy]

It is currently uncertain re possible snowfall - of course, elevation and intensity will make a difference but the deepening of the lows and hence mixing out of the colder air is far from settled - hence, no one is currently right but the models show what the models show and this is the model discussion thread ! 
 

Though at the moment, there is little evidence that anywhere away from high ground will get a ‘pasting’ ....... I’d be happy with a couple inches that sticks around for a couple days but that seems v unlikely atm. 

[Sky Full]

1st of December and (at great personal risk of being pilloried.....) these CFS charts are now only 24 days away.......

  
 

Now that would make an interesting Christmas Day!

I know,  I KNOW!  It’s too far ahead.  It’s never going to happen. Etc etc.  Just let me dream, OK?

[Snow lover 2020]

7 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

1st of December and (at great personal risk of being pilloried.....) these CFS charts are now only 24 days away.......

  
 

Now that would make an interesting Christmas Day!

I know,  I KNOW!  It’s too far ahead.  It’s never going to happen. Etc etc.  Just let me dream, OK?

You never know! CFS has had this showing on and off for last 3 weeks. 

[Tim Bland]

Lots to keep us entertained on the ECM. See below for snow depth by Sat. We then see attacks from the east early next week and then from the North west. All very marginal so there will be lots of analysis of DP and thickness etc needed....

[SMU]

31 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Steve you got your crayons out for any potential snow lines from ukmo and ecm?

Based on the overnights the usual shuffling about.

I think it will be down to a nowcast situation however favoured spots. 

-Chilterns

- Wolds 

- Peak district 

- penines

< low chance here unless there is a fair correction SE.

Secondary band 

Scotland E

Borders

Northumberland 

Etc

models have moved away from wales now 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Steve Murr

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Based on the overnights the usual shuffling about.

I think it will be down to a nowcast situation however favoured spots. 

-Chilterns

- Wolds 

- Peak district 

< low chance here unless there is a fair correction SE.

Secondary band 

Scotland E

Borders

Northumberland 

Etc

Hmm latest snow accumulation chart from tim bland looks good for us midlanders and for your self i think steve!has around 3 or 4cms even for you by saturday!!more than i thought and better than nothing i suppose

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Hmm latest snow accumulation chart from tim bland looks good for us midlanders and for your self i think steve!has around 3 or 4cms even for you by saturday!!more than i thought and better than nothing i suppose

Not to be trusted, even a day out - just an indicator of where snow may fall - you should use your own judgement of the background to decide if you think it will stick - that looks unlikely away from hills unless we get some really intense precip ........

[SMU]

1 hour ago, West is Best said:

No just being realistic Steve. These synoptics are decent but not dramatic. At no point on the latest 0Z GFS ensembles is the -5C 850 hPa touched. I'm afraid there's not going to be a lot of snow out of this, but it will certainly feel cold for two or three days. The UKMO T144 actually shows an advancing mid-Atlantic low, something supported by the latest GFS.

I didnt say snow / Blizzards / Deep cold

Just continuation of cold.

We will have a deep embedded cold pool so 850 charts a little irrelevant to what we see...

Try the T2Ms > I think we will pan out around the daily Maxes of 3-4c which is chilly. CET for week 1 about 2c which is well below ave.

Ukmo 00z would see day 7 + Day 8 reinforcing the cold air but not especially deep cold - Although Scotland may get sub -7 uppers for the cold pool to the North...

 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Polar Maritime

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hmm latest snow accumulation chart from tim bland looks good for us midlanders and for your self i think steve!has around 3 or 4cms even for you by saturday!!more than i thought and better than nothing i suppose

Very, very difficult to pin down at this range! As Steve says everything will depend on exactly where the low ends up. Somewhere at lower levels will see some falling snow for a time, I'm sure of that! If you want a really snowy day then you are better off heading for some hills!

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Not to be trusted, even a day out - just an indicator of where snow may fall - you should use your own judgement of the background to decide if you think it will stick - that looks unlikely away from hills unless we get some really intense precip ........

Well - they're Charts and they're "out there"  - we have to go off something.

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Well - they're Charts and they're "out there"  - we have to go off something.

There are a plethora of charts and we know some are way less reliable than others - the ec snow depth chart is one of those unless you have a clear path ahead in which case it’s simply a case of how much precip will fall rather than how much will fall, how intense will it be, how marginal will the Dp’s be, how wet will the ground be, how warm will the ground be etc etc .... there are a lot more factors and this period at the end of the week has nearly everyone of them open to question ! 
 

I was just trying to temper the expectations of taking that chart too literally 

Edited December 1, 2020 by bluearmy

[SMU]

Worth noting on the CFS & GFS strat forecasts today - tightest clustering of the season for the core runs & the bias corrected ones as well

[Paul_1978]

Is this the "will it snow" thread or the "model output discussion" thread?

Edited December 1, 2020 by Paul_1978
typo

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Worth noting on the CFS & GFS strat forecasts today - tightest clustering of the season for the core runs & the bias corrected ones as well

 

today’s zonal wind speed at 10hpa is almost a date record .....thankfully it seems the only way for there is down ! 

[Snipper]

7 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Is this the "will it snow" thread or the "model output discussion" thread?

Be kind.  Probably just a nice distraction from all that horrible stuff. 

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Is this the "will it snow" thread or the "model output discussion" thread?

I was wondering the same thing 

Personally it's just not cold enough and snow will be confined to Scotland and Northern England and some hills 

Though it is good that cold air does get entrenched for a time so possibility of further snow chances are there 

[Mr Frost]

13 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Is this the "will it snow" thread or the "model output discussion" thread?

I can’t see any model discussion in this post mate? 

I am not sure what folk are looking for from the first week of Winter - risk of frosts, chilly days, marginal snow events, big accumulations over the hills/mountains are all forecast in the current models/charts. 
Some folk in here must have very high expectations to not be happy with current output - we don’t live in Northern Finland. 

Here is another extremely marginal low ground snow risk showing on the models - high ground favoured! 

Thursday 12:00

 

15:00

 

18:00

 

Many cold/snow lovers will be at least a little excited with the wintry potential - it’s better than 12c and drizzle! (Unless you are a fan of that weather of course!)

Cheers.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Beanz]

39 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Is this the "will it snow" thread or the "model output discussion" thread?

Given snow could be an output of the models, I guess it's probably the right thread  

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all 

Happy Meteorological Winter to you all! Great to see everyone getting along! 

UKV snapshots below - lovely stuff for some! 
Wednesday at 22:00

 

 

Friday 03:00

 

06:00

 

09:00

 

Once again just for fun the lying snow depth (mm) chart - out to Friday 09:00.

 

All together now......It’s the most wonderful time of the year....

All the best to you all and I hope some of you at least see some snowfall - higher ground the place to be of course for the big totals! 
Radar/lamp post watching begins tomorrow evening. 

Have a good week! 

You've made me really jealous I was meant to have been on a Highlands lodge holiday this week instead I'm stuck in tier3 Kentshire with cold rain

[Anthony Burden]

Absolute nightmare for the forecasters over the next 5 days or so,this low pressure 

system could change its position very quickly.Snow is a big issue in this country and

can cause havoc,at the moment most parts of the U.K. could be at risk of considerable 

amounts.

[captaincroc]

These are the charts I was looking to see...the models starting to collate the heights to our north west in a slightly more coherent manner. Yes, no bright yellows but the tilt is SE which will only help grow the blocking above.  Yes, it might not show it now but as we're told my the experts, the models don't like 'unnormal' charts so I'm not too worried.

Truth be told, I just love a festive feeling xmas. I would rather snow in Nov/Dec that Jan/Feb...as the days are short and sun weak so snow melt is generally less.  This setup however mundane some are saying it will be will defo bring frost, some snow...but definitely a much deserved xmas feel we need.

Bring whatever on...even if I just get some frost I will be happy.

Edited December 1, 2020 by captaincroc

[blizzard81]

06z Icon has thrown the towel in at 84hrs. Don't blame it lol . 

[SMU]

The overnight APERGE & 06z ICON have really moved on SE placing the first wave of PPN firmly in the SE. 

There is some snow over the downs / suffolk however with it being a NW flow the airmass & subsequent cold is slightly more modified in the SE - hence a weaker signal for snow...

S

[feb1991blizzard]

So the Icon has gone from 25cm of snow a few miles away from me to none at all in the space of 2 runs.

Iconic modelling from an iconic model.

Edited December 1, 2020 by feb1991blizzard